Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 18 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Sullivan: Putin had a simple goal - keep the war going without new U.S. sanctions. He got both on an open-ended basis.

Right now, Russia is trying to achieve diplomatically what they cannot achieve militarily. They aren’t able to take the rest of the Donbas for 3+ years.

1/
Sullivan: We didn’t want to set up a summit where we were literally rolling out the red carpet for Putin in America to have him come and walk away and continue the war without any clear and convincing outcome.

2/
Sullivan: Trump’s goals were immediate ceasefire or severe consequences. The summit ended with neither — no ceasefire, no consequences. 3/
Sullivan: Rubio is wrong that pressure hurts diplomacy. Putin came to Alaska because he feared pressure. That fear should have been used as leverage. 4/
Sullivan: If President Trump were prepared to escalate sanctions, squeeze Putin harder, I believe it would give him leverage to bring this war to an end more rapidly.

5/
Sullivan: Now is the moment for President Zelensky to look President Trump in the eye, get the support of the European leaders and say, ‘Let’s increase support for Ukraine and let’s increase pressure on Russia.’

6X
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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 20
Bessent: Russian economy imbalanced — 20%+ inflation, 25% of GDP from military buildup. Frozen assets used to finance war.

U.S. will raise secondary tariffs on India for Russian oil. Economics must pressure Putin to end war.

1/
Q: India and China oil imports?

Bessent: China imported 13% of oil from Russia pre-2022, now 16% — diversified supply.

India had <1% pre-war, now 42%. Indian firms profiteered, making $16B reselling cheap Russian oil.

This wartime arbitrage is unacceptable.
2/
Q: Did European tariff negotiations affect Ukraine talks?

Bessent: Yes. Successful EU tariff deal in Scotland weeks ago cleared ground. Meeting with Zelensky and EU leaders at WH showed unity on conflict resolution.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Aug 19
Merz: Russia’s demand that Kyiv give up the free parts of Donbas is like asking the US to give up Florida.

No one should force Ukraine into territorial concessions. Ukraine itself must decide this in the course of negotiations. 1/
Merz: The U.S., coordinated with Europe, is ready to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. If a peace deal is reached, Ukraine will receive them. 2/
Merz: I believe Trump was impressed that Europeans spoke with one voice. That mattered to me.

We spent hours preparing this meeting, and I wasn’t sure it would go so well. It could have gone differently, but my expectations were exceeded. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Aug 19
Concrete outcomes after Zelenskyy’s meeting with Trump, Interview

1. Security
2. Trump called Putin. Russia proposed: 1) Ukraine–Russia next 2) Trilateral
3. Return of children — thanks that Melania is on our side
4. “All for all” exchange — Trump will personally help
1/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine is ready for any formats, without preconditions. We want the war to end, not just pause.

2/
Zelenskyy: This was the first opportunity to talk to Trump about such things.

We showed: in 1000 days the Russian army captured less than 1%.

For us the focus is on truth and reality — this shows the balance of strength between Russia and Ukraine.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 19
CNN asked me for my perspective on yesterday’s meeting at the White House.

Q: How important were European leaders with Zelenskyy at the WH today?

Me: Very important.

1. It precluded unraveling of the meeting.

2. It gave gravity to Ukraine’s position. 1/
It’s not just Zelenskyy but European leaders too. That puts Trump in a better position to negotiate with Putin.

European leaders were there to talk about security guarantees if there would be peace. 2/
What's your reaction to Trump’s post: stopping the war is on Zelenskyy, Crimea is a nonstarter, NATO is off the table?

Those are Putin’s goals. He wants to subdue Ukraine completely.

Ukrainian reactions are on 3 levels: pragmatic, justice-based, and emotional. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 19
NYT writes about three options for Ukraine’s security guarantees. In my view, all are bullshit and won’t work. The goal of thee guarantees is to calm Ukrainians and give Zelenskyy political cover to hand Donbas to Putin.

1/ Image
Whether Zelenskyy accepts this, whether Trump’s real offer is “give up Donbas or lose all support, and Europe is barred from arming you” - I don’t know. If there is a carrot like “confiscate Russian money and fund your recovery,” I don’t know. So far it’s just “guarantees”

2/
It also matters that Zelenskyy and Trump didn’t clash this time. This suggests Zelenskyy gave some form of agreement or left room for one.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 19
Trump: We need to discuss possible land swap.

Only Zelenskyy and people of Ukraine can make that decision.

I’ll set up a meeting with Putin for Zelenskyy.

1/
Macron: Maybe we need four-side meeting: US, Russia, Ukraine, and Europe.

This is a question of security of the whole Europe.

Europe needs strong Ukrainian army.

2/
Merz: I cannot imagine the next meeting on Ukraine without a ceasefire, so let's work on that.

We need to preasure Russia. Ceasfire and future talks depend on it.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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