Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 18 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/5 As Trump refuses to pressure russia, Ukraine shows how it’s done.

Just before tough negotiations with Trump, Ukraine unveils its new long-range cruise missile: Flamingo.

The timing? Likely not a coincidence👇Image
2/5 Ukraine has been hitting russia with drones—but they’re easy to shoot down and carry small payloads.

What Ukraine needs are cruise and ballistic missiles with real range and impact.

Flamingo is a big step in that direction Image
3/5 Flamingo looks very much like a Milanion FP5.

It’s not stealthy or fast, but it has the range and payload to do serious damage.

If combined with decoys, drones, and ballistic missiles, some will get through—and hit hard Image
4/5 russia’s air defenses are good—but not good enough.

Ukraine has already struck deep inside russia. The country is too big to fully defend, and it has burned through many interceptors and lost key systems.

Flamingo raises the pressure Image
5/5 Ukraine is doing what Trump won’t: pressuring russia.

Europe needs to step up and help scale this. Long-range strike capability is one of the best ways to force Putin to end his war.

Ukraine is on the right path—support it Image

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More from @joni_askola

Aug 18
1/5 The most unpredictable thing about Trump is how predictable he is.

He will always side with russia—no matter what.

Every time. And his approach to Ukraine is no exception👇Image
2/5 Trump lies and exaggerates about everything.

His “peace plan” for Ukraine was never about peace—it was about helping russia.

Anyone who follows this war closely saw it coming from a mile away Image
3/5 He refuses to pressure russia.

Again and again, he buys Putin time while bullying Ukraine.

His strategy? Blame Biden, gaslight the public, and pretend he’s the dealmaker. But it’s all smoke Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 18
1/11 Trump thinks russia holds the cards. It doesn’t.

russia lied to him—and to the world. Its war in Ukraine is a strategic disaster.

If Trump were negotiating in good faith, here are a few key facts he’d need to understand 👇Image
2/11 russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is a colossal failure.

Its goal was regime change—turning Ukraine into a satellite state. It failed to take Kyiv. Zelensky stayed. That was russia’s strategic defeat.

Everything since has been damage controlImage
3/11 russia is further from its goals now than in March 2022.

It controls less territory than it did 3 weeks into the war. From ~30% of Ukraine in March 2022 to under 20% now. In the last 1000 days, it has gained <1% of Ukraine—at the cost of ~1 million casualties.

Maps: ISWImage
Read 11 tweets
Aug 17
1/5 Ukraine must never accept any limitations on its armed forces—now or in any future peace deal.

This war has proven one thing: Ukraine’s own military is its most reliable security guarantee.

No foreign promise can replace national strengthImage
2/5 NATO and the EU are vital.

Ukraine should pursue alliances and security guarantees.

But let’s be honest: none of them will ever be as dependable as Ukraine’s own armed forcesImage
3/5 Security assurances are helpful—but they’re not enough.

Ukraine trusted them before and paid the price.

This time, it must keep its shield.

No demilitarization. No compromise on defenseImage
Read 5 tweets
Aug 17
1/7 Let’s be clear: the Budapest Memorandum is dead.

The US and UK failed Ukraine.

In 1994, they gave security assurances in the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine gave up its nukes. When russia invaded, those assurances meant no real protection.

A betrayal in everything but nameImage
2/7 Ukraine had the third-largest nuclear arsenal.
It gave it up for promises—not binding guarantees.
The West pledged respect and support.
russia pledged peace.
All three broke the spirit of the dealImage
3/7 The Budapest Memorandum wasn’t just a handshake.
It was a political commitment.
Ukraine trusted the West.
And when russia attacked in 2014—and again in 2022—those assurances vanished.
Not enouth aid. No troops. Tweets and soft sanctionsImage
Read 7 tweets
Aug 17
1/5 🚨 Another Oval Office Fiasco Ahead?

Tomorrow, Trump meets Zelensky at the White House—just days after his Alaska summit with Putin. The stakes? Nothing less than the future of Ukraine and Europe’s security.

Here’s why this meeting could go very wrong🧵Image
2/5 Trump went to Alaska promising a ceasefire. He came back with a new line: Forget a truce, go straight to a “peace deal.”

Sounds good? Not really. That “deal” mirrors Putin’s demands—territorial concessions and no NATO for Ukraine Image
3/5 This is dangerous. Why?

Because negotiating a “peace deal” before a ceasefire gives Putin leverage to blackmail Ukraine.

Kyiv fears being forced to surrender land while russia keeps fighting. Trump’s stance now aligns with Moscow’s playbook Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 16
1/6 Why hasn’t Europe stepped up to help Ukraine win—after 3.5 years of full-scale war?

Because most Europeans are weak cowards who hope the war will go away if they just look away.

Time to look in the mirror—and finally step up👇Image
2/6 The war in Ukraine has lasted over 11 years.
For 3.5 years, it’s been full-scale.
russia is invading Europe.
It commits daily war crimes, abducts children, and denies Ukraine’s right to exist.
And yet, most Europeans prefer not to think about it Image
3/6 russia is all in.
Europe is doing the minimum.
For 11 years, we’ve managed escalation instead of stopping it.
We hoped the US would take care of it.
But now Trump is in power—and the Alaska Talks showed he won’t Image
Read 6 tweets

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