Zelenskyy is going to meet Trump with European leaders — Von der Leyen, Rutte, Macron, Starmer, Merz, Meloni, Stubb.
This is unprecedented. The goal is to show that Putin is trying to deceive Trump. 1/
It is impossible to hand over Donbas to Putin — both military and constitutional reasons make this unfeasible.
Putin is making irrelevant and unacceptable demands to prolong the war. What’s needed now is a ceasefire and serious negotiations on a deal. 2/
Trump can hold this line against Putin, and eventually Putin will have to agree.
This means peace is possible and even likely, but Putin will resist. Another 6–10 months may be required. 3/
All of Putin’s demands — restoring the Russian church, making Russian an official language, limiting the size of Ukraine’s army — are unacceptable.
The people reject them, and Putin knows it. They have nothing to do with peace. 4/
I remain optimistic about progress. Putin tried to push Ukraine and Europe out of the talks, but failed. Trump will balance between Putin, the EU, and Ukraine, seeking middle ground. 5/
The only viable middle ground, in the view of many around me, is freezing the current front line and providing Ukraine with guarantees and support to hold it. This is similar to what happened in Korea. 6X
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Bessent: Russian economy imbalanced — 20%+ inflation, 25% of GDP from military buildup. Frozen assets used to finance war.
U.S. will raise secondary tariffs on India for Russian oil. Economics must pressure Putin to end war.
1/
Q: India and China oil imports?
Bessent: China imported 13% of oil from Russia pre-2022, now 16% — diversified supply.
India had <1% pre-war, now 42%. Indian firms profiteered, making $16B reselling cheap Russian oil.
This wartime arbitrage is unacceptable. 2/
Q: Did European tariff negotiations affect Ukraine talks?
Bessent: Yes. Successful EU tariff deal in Scotland weeks ago cleared ground. Meeting with Zelensky and EU leaders at WH showed unity on conflict resolution.
Zelenskyy: Ukraine will hold elections after the war.
Express: Britain will help organize them: 1. including refugee voting abroad 2. countering disinformation 3. likely financing the process.
UK and Ukraine electoral commissions signed a pact. 1/
Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia’s 2022 invasion. No elections for over 3 years.
Ukrainian Electoral Commission: the pact will strengthen cooperation, bring best practices, and prepare for “the most challenging elections in our country’s history.”
2/
Zelenskyy won in 2019 with a landslide. Re-election was due in 2024 but suspended by war.
Express writes that his approval rating now ~67% — among the highest for European leaders.
3X
Axios: Rubio will lead US-European-Ukrainian talks on security guarantees for Ukraine.
A framework is expected within days. The plan would exclude NATO
membership and U.S. ground troops but could include U.S. air support for European forces. 1/
Trump called Putin on Monday evening and told him he will have to meet directly with Zelensky to discuss his territorial demands and urged him to be ‘realistic’. 2/
Trump told Fox News the US is ready to provide air cover: “We will help by air.”
He said Ukraine won’t join NATO but agreed to work on “Article 5-like” guarantees with Europeans. 2/
Merz: Russia’s demand that Kyiv give up the free parts of Donbas is like asking the US to give up Florida.
No one should force Ukraine into territorial concessions. Ukraine itself must decide this in the course of negotiations. 1/
Merz: The U.S., coordinated with Europe, is ready to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. If a peace deal is reached, Ukraine will receive them. 2/
Merz: I believe Trump was impressed that Europeans spoke with one voice. That mattered to me.
We spent hours preparing this meeting, and I wasn’t sure it would go so well. It could have gone differently, but my expectations were exceeded. 3/