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Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Aug 18, 2025 • 18 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X

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This is why giving away Donbass cannot be an option for Ukraine 🇺🇦

Donald Trump 🇺🇸 will ask Zelensky to give away Donbass in exchange for a ceasefire with Russia 🇷🇺.

It would mean giving 9 cities and the main fortifications to Russia without a fight.

🧵THREAD🧵1/18⬇️

Giving away Donbass may seem to be the solution to calm Putin and reach a ceasefire, or even the peace between Ukraine and Russia.

However this cannot be accepted by any government of Ukraine for few simple reasons.

Here, we are mainly talking about the non-occupied part of Donetsk oblast, since the northern part of Luhansk oblast is mainly rural and has been occupied without big fights in spring 2022.

This is what Russia took in 30 month (after the last ukrainian counter-offensive).

As @M0nstas states, this is 5100 km² in 30 months, it means there is still 6500km2 to be taken.

Also in the 5100km2, we count those cities :

-Bakhmut (biggest russian gain in 3 years) 80k pop
-Avdiivka 35k pop
-Torestk 35k pop
-Selydove 24k pop
-Kourakhove 20k pop
- - than 15k

So in 3 years of fight, with the main battles being waged in Donetsk oblast, Russia only took one "big" city (80k inhabitants) and smaller towns, all located in the periphery of Donetsk.

They still have to fight for the big cities of ukrainian controled Donbass.

In the 6500km2 to be taken we count :

-Kramatorsk 160k pop
-Sloviansk 120k pop
-Kostiantynivka 75k pop
-Pokrovsk 65k pop
-Droujkivka 60k pop
-Myrnohrad 50k pop
-Dobropilla 30k pop
-Lyman 22k pop
-Siversk 12k pop

In the lone Sloviansk-Kostiantynivka valley, 415k pop...

Who would be crazy enough to give away without a fight a total worth of more than 600k pop cities, while Russia only took ~250k pop cities in 3 years of war ?

This, without forgetting the area has industrial and mining potential, even if partly destroyed by 11 years of war.

With that stated, there is also the price for Russia. Russia is pushing constanlty in the region. Mainly with infantry, since Ukraine built large anti-vehicle oblastacles and is massively using drones.

This has an enormous human price for Russia.

That is the reason why Putin is not willing to fight for Pokrovsk, for Kramatorsk or Sloviansk.

He would lose too much men, the operation will take far more time and his economy will continue to suffer.

He is seeking an easy victory with D. Trump.

Also, Ukraine built massive fortifications in Donetsk oblast. This region is easily defendable. There are massive cities, industrial complexes, mines and undergrounds.

Everytime there is a field or a treeline, ukrainian fortifications are standing.

In this particular region, a big part of Ukraine's "New Donbass Line" is standing.

It goes from the southern part of the non-occupied part of the oblast to Izium, Kharkiv and now even Sumy !

Here is a map of what would happen with this region in the hands of Russia.

No more big fortifications, an open terrain for further offensive actions in central Ukraine, to push to Dnipro, Poltava, Zaporizhia or Kharkiv oblasts.

If the region is handed over to Putin without a fight, it would place russian forces 10km to Izium, 26km to Lozova and 55km to Pavlohrad.

Those are the only cities west of Donbass, before Dnipro (120km) and Poltava (175km).

Ukrainian soldiers are not willing to give away Donbass, their region, the region they have been fighting for during 11 years, the one where they lost comrades.

Putin will not give anything in return, no Kherson, no Zaporizhia, no Kharkiv. So they have no interest in it.

But if Ukraine is not willing to leave Donbass to Russia without fighting, what will happen ?

Peace will probably not be found, Russia will continue to push and slowly taking the region, or maybe they will be forced to stop.

Russia's economy has been largely left untouched.

If tomorrow, ukrainian drones and missiles are destroying russian economy (factories, mines, oil and gas facilities, ports...), Putin may be forced to stop.

With Trump and the USA disengaging, it is now the role of Europe to continue to support Ukraine, as long as it is willing to fight.

France, Germany, the UK, Poland, Italy, the Baltics and Nordics countries must also become the real rear base of Ukraine.

Thank you for reading this thread.

Do not hesistate to share, like and follow my account for more in depth analysis.

I've also updated my biography with a longer version in french, you can translate it easily to know more about me.

x.com/clement_molin/…

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More from @clement_molin

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jun 18

Ukraine 🇺🇦 has now targeted around 500 russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles during the last 48 days.

Mid-range strikes continue to expand across occupied territories, on roads, bridges and rear base. This continues to slow down russian offensive.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️

From tomorrow, I will be off for more than 1 week, which means there won't be any new map/airstrike/fortification/mid-range strikes update, apart from some small tweets.

I will however continue to follow the overall trends.

In total, I have 270 geolocated strikes on trucks and vehicles since january, most of those are from May to June.

The key Rostov-Crimea road remains the priority target, but roads in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblast have also been largely targeted.

Read 13 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jun 15

La guerre en Ukraine 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 a désormais dépassé la durée de la Première Guerre mondiale et pourrait encore durer plusieurs années.

Voici ce qu’il faut savoir en juin 2026 de ce conflit généralisé aux portes de l’Europe 🇪🇺 qui n'en finit plus.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️

Quel est l’objectif de guerre de la Russie, pays agresseur ?

Les objectifs de guerre de la Fédération de Russie ont beaucoup évolué depuis quatre ans. Outre les déclarations officielles, le principal objectif russe est resté territorial et politique. Moscou cherchait, le 24 février, à vassaliser l’Ukraine tout en annexant une large région, la « Novorossia », entre Kharkiv, le Donbass et Odessa. Cet objectif a largement évolué, notamment après l’échec des offensives sur Kyiv, Kharkiv et Odessa.

Aujourd’hui, l’objectif territorial principal reste l’occupation de toute la région du Donbass, en particulier sa capitale de facto, Kramatorsk. Il est très probable que l’armée russe dispose de deux objectifs territoriaux secondaires : l’occupation complète des deux autres oblasts annexés, Kherson (ce qui est quasi impossible à l’heure actuelle) et Zaporijjia, et l’harmonisation de la ligne de front sur la rivière Oskil dans l’oblast de Kharkiv.

L’objectif politique initial — redonner à la Russie sa puissance d’antan, l’ancrer dans l’Eurasie, retrouver les populations, les industries, les mines et l’accès à la mer des deux voisins slaves (l’Ukraine et la Biélorussie) — reste inchangé. Sans l’Ukraine, la Russie est condamnée à être une puissance secondaire et plus largement asiatique, sa dimension d’empire s’effaçant avec la montée en parallèle de la démographie non slave.

Les autres objectifs qui ont pu jouer un rôle auparavant sont caduques aujourd’hui : la démilitarisation de l’Ukraine semble impossible, quatre ans de guerre d’attrition n’ayant pas conduit à un effondrement ukrainien. La dénazification, étendard pour parler de l’effacement du nationalisme ukrainien, est également un échec. Les nationalistes ukrainiens sont plus forts et décomplexés que jamais, représentant près de 100 000 hommes dans l’armée ukrainienne. Les figures antirusses controversées d’Europe centrale et orientale ont par ailleurs été réhabilitées. Empêcher l’OTAN et l’UE de s’étendre à l’Est était aussi un mirage. Bien que la considération eût été réelle, la Suède et la Finlande ont rejoint l’Alliance, tandis que la Moldavie, le Caucase du Sud, les Balkans occidentaux et l’Ukraine ont accéléré leur rapprochement avec l’Europe, tous brandissant la menace russe.

L’objectif russe est donc désormais d’installer la confrontation dans la durée, jusqu’à un effondrement hypothétique de l’aide à l’Ukraine (qui semble compromise par la dernière aide de l’UE), l’essoufflement de la population ukrainienne (une considération bien réelle mais qui n’impactera probablement pas la situation au front) ou une victoire à la Pyrrhus, que ce soit la prise du Donbass suivie d’un cessez-le-feu ou une capitulation de l’Ukraine comme la Finlande en 1940.

Quel est l’objectif de l’Ukraine, pays agressé ?

L’objectif de Kyiv a lui aussi beaucoup évolué. L’armée ukrainienne a été surprise par l’ampleur de l’offensive du 24 février, qui lui a fait perdre des territoires stratégiques, comme le sud du pays. L’objectif initial de survivre en tant qu’État a été largement assuré par les victoires à Kyiv, Kharkiv et Mykolaïv en 2022. Le second objectif, retrouver les frontières d’avant-guerre, a échoué en 2023 après l’échec des offensives ukrainiennes. Depuis cette date, les Ukrainiens ont pour objectif de tenir dans la durée, jusqu’à un essoufflement ou un retrait hypothétique des Russes.

Kyiv refuse de se retirer des territoires sous son contrôle, mais a déjà accepté l’idée de concessions territoriales, de manière non officielle, sur la Crimée, le sud et l’est du pays. Pour Kyiv, il est hors de question de capituler et de céder des territoires sans combat à Moscou, d’autant que les garanties de bonne foi de la Russie ont historiquement montré qu’elles n’étaient pas tenues. Dès lors, l’Ukraine a développé ses propres moyens pour que chaque km2 de territoire conquis coûte plus cher à Moscou, tout en essayant de toucher au maximum l’économie russe. Une contre-offensive hypothétique reste possible, mais il est encore tôt pour savoir si les Ukrainiens ont les moyens de la réaliser.

Read 10 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jun 14

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/2066093709360247128

For months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been conducting a series of deep infiltrations on the Velika Novosilka front.

Some of Russia’s 2025 gains have already been reversed, with the February counter-attack expanding to a 40-kilometer front.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/2066093709360247128

As a reminder, in February, the Ukrainian army conducted a discreet offensive for several weeks, clearing infiltrated areas, securing Pokrovsk'e and infiltrating areas that were previously under Russian control.

This counter-attack notably secured Ternuvat and prevented the use of Uspenivka to launch assaults on the Zaporizhzhia front.

This significantly slowed the Russian advance, reducing its length from 42 km to 25 km (west of Hulialpole).

Read 12 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jun 13

The Ukrainian 🇺🇦 blocus of Crimea is starting 🇷🇺

After they repeatedly hit bridges connecting Crimea and occupied Kherson oblast, the Ukrainians started implementing a blocus of the peninsula.

Last night, trucks and a pontoon bridge were hit.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️

Last night, the Code 9.2, Phalanx and the davinci units launched multiple strikes against targets in and around the key roads leading to Crimea.

As you can see on the map, only few bridges are connecting Crimea to mainland Ukraine. 6 of them have been reportedly hit including the main ones :

🔸Henichesk bridge
🔸Chonhar road bridge
🔸Chonhar rail bridge
🔸Armyansk bridge (on canal)
🔸Stavky and Myrne bridges (?) on canal

Read 15 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jun 11

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2065091949833359402

Last night, multiple Ukrainian 🇺🇦 units hit the bridges leading to Crimea, further isolating the peninsula from the land bridge to Russia 🇷🇺

At the same time, strike campaign continues on multiple key roads, with over 375 vehicles and trucks hit since early May.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2065091949833359402

Crimea is connected with southern occupied Ukraine by multiple key bridges.

The one in Chonhar was hit few days ago by multiple drones, which forced the russians to put up a pontoon bridge for their road traffic.

At least 3 bridges have been recently hit. The one in Henichesk, the ones in Armyansk and in Stavky.

As we can see on the video, these strikes are putting holes in the middle of those key bridges. Any consolidation attempt will probably be hit.

Read 13 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jun 7

Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues its massive mid-range strike campaign against russian 🇷🇺 logistics.

Since early May, more than 290 russian trucks and vehicles have been hit. I have now mapped 210 strikes since january.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️

The strike campaign is guided by multiple units, using a large veriety of drones.

The backbone of it are the FP-1/2 strikes on key logistics hubs, mainly oil/fuel depots, trains, gas stations, electric substations and rear bases.

Those strikes are often guided with AI.

The latest video recently published showcased some strikes around Melitopol (few missed) with Hornet drones.

Interestlingly, everything is not blurred, which helps understanding how they are using those drones.