This is why giving away Donbass cannot be an option for Ukraine 🇺🇦
Donald Trump 🇺🇸 will ask Zelensky to give away Donbass in exchange for a ceasefire with Russia 🇷🇺.
It would mean giving 9 cities and the main fortifications to Russia without a fight.
🧵THREAD🧵1/18⬇️
Donald Trump 🇺🇸 will ask Zelensky to give away Donbass in exchange for a ceasefire with Russia 🇷🇺.
It would mean giving 9 cities and the main fortifications to Russia without a fight.
🧵THREAD🧵1/18⬇️
Giving away Donbass may seem to be the solution to calm Putin and reach a ceasefire, or even the peace between Ukraine and Russia.
However this cannot be accepted by any government of Ukraine for few simple reasons.
However this cannot be accepted by any government of Ukraine for few simple reasons.
Here, we are mainly talking about the non-occupied part of Donetsk oblast, since the northern part of Luhansk oblast is mainly rural and has been occupied without big fights in spring 2022.
This is what Russia took in 30 month (after the last ukrainian counter-offensive).
This is what Russia took in 30 month (after the last ukrainian counter-offensive).
As @M0nstas states, this is 5100 km² in 30 months, it means there is still 6500km2 to be taken.
Also in the 5100km2, we count those cities :
-Bakhmut (biggest russian gain in 3 years) 80k pop
-Avdiivka 35k pop
-Torestk 35k pop
-Selydove 24k pop
-Kourakhove 20k pop
- - than 15k
Also in the 5100km2, we count those cities :
-Bakhmut (biggest russian gain in 3 years) 80k pop
-Avdiivka 35k pop
-Torestk 35k pop
-Selydove 24k pop
-Kourakhove 20k pop
- - than 15k
So in 3 years of fight, with the main battles being waged in Donetsk oblast, Russia only took one "big" city (80k inhabitants) and smaller towns, all located in the periphery of Donetsk.
They still have to fight for the big cities of ukrainian controled Donbass.
They still have to fight for the big cities of ukrainian controled Donbass.
In the 6500km2 to be taken we count :
-Kramatorsk 160k pop
-Sloviansk 120k pop
-Kostiantynivka 75k pop
-Pokrovsk 65k pop
-Droujkivka 60k pop
-Myrnohrad 50k pop
-Dobropilla 30k pop
-Lyman 22k pop
-Siversk 12k pop
In the lone Sloviansk-Kostiantynivka valley, 415k pop...
-Kramatorsk 160k pop
-Sloviansk 120k pop
-Kostiantynivka 75k pop
-Pokrovsk 65k pop
-Droujkivka 60k pop
-Myrnohrad 50k pop
-Dobropilla 30k pop
-Lyman 22k pop
-Siversk 12k pop
In the lone Sloviansk-Kostiantynivka valley, 415k pop...
Who would be crazy enough to give away without a fight a total worth of more than 600k pop cities, while Russia only took ~250k pop cities in 3 years of war ?
This, without forgetting the area has industrial and mining potential, even if partly destroyed by 11 years of war.
This, without forgetting the area has industrial and mining potential, even if partly destroyed by 11 years of war.
With that stated, there is also the price for Russia. Russia is pushing constanlty in the region. Mainly with infantry, since Ukraine built large anti-vehicle oblastacles and is massively using drones.
This has an enormous human price for Russia.
This has an enormous human price for Russia.
That is the reason why Putin is not willing to fight for Pokrovsk, for Kramatorsk or Sloviansk.
He would lose too much men, the operation will take far more time and his economy will continue to suffer.
He is seeking an easy victory with D. Trump.
He would lose too much men, the operation will take far more time and his economy will continue to suffer.
He is seeking an easy victory with D. Trump.
Also, Ukraine built massive fortifications in Donetsk oblast. This region is easily defendable. There are massive cities, industrial complexes, mines and undergrounds.
Everytime there is a field or a treeline, ukrainian fortifications are standing.
Everytime there is a field or a treeline, ukrainian fortifications are standing.
In this particular region, a big part of Ukraine's "New Donbass Line" is standing.
It goes from the southern part of the non-occupied part of the oblast to Izium, Kharkiv and now even Sumy !
It goes from the southern part of the non-occupied part of the oblast to Izium, Kharkiv and now even Sumy !
Here is a map of what would happen with this region in the hands of Russia.
No more big fortifications, an open terrain for further offensive actions in central Ukraine, to push to Dnipro, Poltava, Zaporizhia or Kharkiv oblasts.
No more big fortifications, an open terrain for further offensive actions in central Ukraine, to push to Dnipro, Poltava, Zaporizhia or Kharkiv oblasts.
If the region is handed over to Putin without a fight, it would place russian forces 10km to Izium, 26km to Lozova and 55km to Pavlohrad.
Those are the only cities west of Donbass, before Dnipro (120km) and Poltava (175km).
Those are the only cities west of Donbass, before Dnipro (120km) and Poltava (175km).
Ukrainian soldiers are not willing to give away Donbass, their region, the region they have been fighting for during 11 years, the one where they lost comrades.
Putin will not give anything in return, no Kherson, no Zaporizhia, no Kharkiv. So they have no interest in it.
Putin will not give anything in return, no Kherson, no Zaporizhia, no Kharkiv. So they have no interest in it.
But if Ukraine is not willing to leave Donbass to Russia without fighting, what will happen ?
Peace will probably not be found, Russia will continue to push and slowly taking the region, or maybe they will be forced to stop.
Peace will probably not be found, Russia will continue to push and slowly taking the region, or maybe they will be forced to stop.
Russia's economy has been largely left untouched.
If tomorrow, ukrainian drones and missiles are destroying russian economy (factories, mines, oil and gas facilities, ports...), Putin may be forced to stop.
If tomorrow, ukrainian drones and missiles are destroying russian economy (factories, mines, oil and gas facilities, ports...), Putin may be forced to stop.
With Trump and the USA disengaging, it is now the role of Europe to continue to support Ukraine, as long as it is willing to fight.
France, Germany, the UK, Poland, Italy, the Baltics and Nordics countries must also become the real rear base of Ukraine.
France, Germany, the UK, Poland, Italy, the Baltics and Nordics countries must also become the real rear base of Ukraine.
Thank you for reading this thread.
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Do not hesistate to share, like and follow my account for more in depth analysis.
I've also updated my biography with a longer version in french, you can translate it easily to know more about me.
x.com/clement_molin/…
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