This is why giving away Donbass cannot be an option for Ukraine 🇺🇦
Donald Trump 🇺🇸 will ask Zelensky to give away Donbass in exchange for a ceasefire with Russia 🇷🇺.
It would mean giving 9 cities and the main fortifications to Russia without a fight.
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Giving away Donbass may seem to be the solution to calm Putin and reach a ceasefire, or even the peace between Ukraine and Russia.
However this cannot be accepted by any government of Ukraine for few simple reasons.
Here, we are mainly talking about the non-occupied part of Donetsk oblast, since the northern part of Luhansk oblast is mainly rural and has been occupied without big fights in spring 2022.
This is what Russia took in 30 month (after the last ukrainian counter-offensive).
As @M0nstas states, this is 5100 km² in 30 months, it means there is still 6500km2 to be taken.
Also in the 5100km2, we count those cities :
-Bakhmut (biggest russian gain in 3 years) 80k pop
-Avdiivka 35k pop
-Torestk 35k pop
-Selydove 24k pop
-Kourakhove 20k pop
- - than 15k
So in 3 years of fight, with the main battles being waged in Donetsk oblast, Russia only took one "big" city (80k inhabitants) and smaller towns, all located in the periphery of Donetsk.
They still have to fight for the big cities of ukrainian controled Donbass.
In the 6500km2 to be taken we count :
-Kramatorsk 160k pop
-Sloviansk 120k pop
-Kostiantynivka 75k pop
-Pokrovsk 65k pop
-Droujkivka 60k pop
-Myrnohrad 50k pop
-Dobropilla 30k pop
-Lyman 22k pop
-Siversk 12k pop
In the lone Sloviansk-Kostiantynivka valley, 415k pop...
Who would be crazy enough to give away without a fight a total worth of more than 600k pop cities, while Russia only took ~250k pop cities in 3 years of war ?
This, without forgetting the area has industrial and mining potential, even if partly destroyed by 11 years of war.
With that stated, there is also the price for Russia. Russia is pushing constanlty in the region. Mainly with infantry, since Ukraine built large anti-vehicle oblastacles and is massively using drones.
This has an enormous human price for Russia.
That is the reason why Putin is not willing to fight for Pokrovsk, for Kramatorsk or Sloviansk.
He would lose too much men, the operation will take far more time and his economy will continue to suffer.
He is seeking an easy victory with D. Trump.
Also, Ukraine built massive fortifications in Donetsk oblast. This region is easily defendable. There are massive cities, industrial complexes, mines and undergrounds.
Everytime there is a field or a treeline, ukrainian fortifications are standing.
In this particular region, a big part of Ukraine's "New Donbass Line" is standing.
It goes from the southern part of the non-occupied part of the oblast to Izium, Kharkiv and now even Sumy !
Here is a map of what would happen with this region in the hands of Russia.
No more big fortifications, an open terrain for further offensive actions in central Ukraine, to push to Dnipro, Poltava, Zaporizhia or Kharkiv oblasts.
If the region is handed over to Putin without a fight, it would place russian forces 10km to Izium, 26km to Lozova and 55km to Pavlohrad.
Those are the only cities west of Donbass, before Dnipro (120km) and Poltava (175km).
Ukrainian soldiers are not willing to give away Donbass, their region, the region they have been fighting for during 11 years, the one where they lost comrades.
Putin will not give anything in return, no Kherson, no Zaporizhia, no Kharkiv. So they have no interest in it.
But if Ukraine is not willing to leave Donbass to Russia without fighting, what will happen ?
Peace will probably not be found, Russia will continue to push and slowly taking the region, or maybe they will be forced to stop.
Russia's economy has been largely left untouched.
If tomorrow, ukrainian drones and missiles are destroying russian economy (factories, mines, oil and gas facilities, ports...), Putin may be forced to stop.
With Trump and the USA disengaging, it is now the role of Europe to continue to support Ukraine, as long as it is willing to fight.
France, Germany, the UK, Poland, Italy, the Baltics and Nordics countries must also become the real rear base of Ukraine.
Thank you for reading this thread.
Do not hesistate to share, like and follow my account for more in depth analysis.
I've also updated my biography with a longer version in french, you can translate it easily to know more about me.
A El Fasher dans l'ouest du #Soudan 🇸🇩, les FSR s'emparent de la base de la 6ème division, encerclée depuis 2 ans.
Des milliers de civils, principalement des Zaghawas (noirs) réfugiés dans la ville fuient vers le désert, poursuivis par les FSR (arabes).
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El Fasher, 4ème (?) plus grande ville du Soudan, capitale de l'ouest du pays était la dernière ville a résister aux forces de soutien rapide, les FSR.
A l'intérieur, en plus des habitants traditionnels, des réfugiés des guerres précédentes, environ 1.5 millions d'habitants.
Les FSR sont une milice arabe du Darfour (l'ouest du Soudan). Ils se battent depuis la fin des années 1990 contre les peuples africains du Darfour, dont les Fur, Zafgawas et Massalit.
Depuis 2023, les FSR tentent de renverser le pouvoir à Khartoum en se battant contre l'armée.
Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers have been sighted in the center of Pokrovsk, a strategic city in the east of Ukraine 🇺🇦
After months of infiltration, russian troops are threatening to capture two of the last 7 big cities of Donbas, while they started entering a 3rd one.
🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️
While ukrainians are cheering for an undeniable victory, the pushed back Dobropilla breakthrough and the liberation of Kucheriv Yar village, stopping months of threat on Kramatorsk, russian infantry was sighted in the city center of Pokrovsk.
Pokrovsk is not a random city. It is the western entrance of Donbas (a populated, mining and industrial eastern region of Ukraine).
Once a strategic railway and road hub for ukrainian forces in Donetsk direction it is now since a year the hot spot of the war.
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦
2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.
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The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.
Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared.
Why ?
Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.
Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes.
A quoi ressemble la guerre en Ukraine en 2025, avec des photos et des vidéos ?
Sur cette vidéo, 4 drones russes 🇷🇺 frappent en 1 minute un blindé ukrainien 🇺🇦 abandonné, deux n'explosent pas.
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J'ai compilé pour vous une vingtaine de vidéos et de photos, les moins sales (la plupart sont absolument horrible, avec des soldats qui agonisent) pour montrer une réalité de la guerre qu'on ne montre plus.
Ici, les drones russes qui attendent leur cible sur le côté de la route.
Un combat constant contre les drones kamikazes FPV.
Sur la vidéo, ce soldat ukrainien se bat contre plusieurs drones kamikazes russes, en détruisant plusieurs. La priorité désormais, regarder vers le ciel.
Alors que se tient le 12ème sommet de l'organisation des Etats Turciques 🇹🇷 en Azerbaïdjan, les pays centrasiatiques prouvent une fois de plus leur éloignement avec la Russie.
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Depuis 2022, l’Asie centrale amorce un tournant géopolitique majeur.
Longtemps dans le giron russe, la région s’émancipe progressivement de Moscou. Cet éloignement n’est ni brutal ni uniforme, mais il est désormais irréversible.
La guerre en Ukraine a agi comme un catalyseur.
Pour les dirigeants centrasiatiques de l'ex URSS, la Russie n’est plus un garant de stabilité, mais un facteur d’incertitude.
Dès lors, la priorité devient l’autonomie stratégique et la diversification des partenariats.
*123 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers got killed in 2025 in Ukraine 🇺🇦, more than the french 🇫🇷 ground forces.
In total, 281 550 russian soldiers were lost in 2025 as per leaked report. It includes 123 000 killed and missing and 158 529 wounded.
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These leaked documents were initially shared by this account @hochuzhit_com which provided these two pictures.
*I don't know about the source which seems controversial but the data seems veracious since it is close to other data collected by Mediazona, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts.
There is high possibility this can be a propaganda operation, but the data can still be used.
The document is giving few interesting insights on the state of russian forces. With 83 000 killed, it's close to the Mediazona count (54 000 in August with verified data).
It is also giving data on particular units and different sectors.