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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Aug 18 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
I don’t have insider info, but I think Trump gave Zelensky this choice: give up Donbas, or fight without U.S. support, without intelligence, without launch codes for weapons already supplied, and without permission for Europeans to arm Ukraine. 1/
The carrot may be funding for weapons and recovery, plus formal political security guarantees if he agrees. Zelensky didn’t argue, only said he needs to think. 2/
But I may be wrong. This is how it looks to me through game theory and conflict strategy. And theory is not reality. 3X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 18
Zelenskyy is going to meet Trump with European leaders — Von der Leyen, Rutte, Macron, Starmer, Merz, Meloni, Stubb.

This is unprecedented. The goal is to show that Putin is trying to deceive Trump. 1/ Image
It is impossible to hand over Donbas to Putin — both military and constitutional reasons make this unfeasible.

Putin is making irrelevant and unacceptable demands to prolong the war. What’s needed now is a ceasefire and serious negotiations on a deal. 2/
Trump can hold this line against Putin, and eventually Putin will have to agree.

This means peace is possible and even likely, but Putin will resist. Another 6–10 months may be required. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 18
Ukraine PM Yuliia Svyrydenko unveiled the Government's Action Program, a roadmap to strengthen defense, boost the economy, support citizens, and rebuild the country after years of war. 1/ Image
Ukraine will boost defense by spending 50% its weapons budget on domestic production and partnering with global firms like Rheinmetall and Thales for local manufacturing. 2/
The country is advancing toward EU membership by completing legislative screening and starting negotiations across six key clusters, bringing Ukraine closer to full integration. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 18
Sullivan: Putin had a simple goal - keep the war going without new U.S. sanctions. He got both on an open-ended basis.

Right now, Russia is trying to achieve diplomatically what they cannot achieve militarily. They aren’t able to take the rest of the Donbas for 3+ years.

1/
Sullivan: We didn’t want to set up a summit where we were literally rolling out the red carpet for Putin in America to have him come and walk away and continue the war without any clear and convincing outcome.

2/
Sullivan: Trump’s goals were immediate ceasefire or severe consequences. The summit ended with neither — no ceasefire, no consequences. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 18
Rubio: Talks will center on security guarantees Ukraine seeks. If the war ends, how to ensure Russia doesn’t return in 2–3 years.

Ukraine wants guarantees to defend itself and prevent a new war. 1/
Rubio: We sanction Russia, not Ukraine. We arm Ukraine, not Russia. The U.S. President want to end the war.

We want every chance for Russia to say yes to terms Ukraine can live with.

This is a war between two countries, not America, Ukraine and Russia.

2/
Rubio: Europe’s role is in long-term security guarantees Ukraine seeks. They should be a key part and can suggest what flexibility the Ukrainian side might have. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 18
Rubio says Europeans are not coming to the US to protect Zelenskyy from being bullied.

Rubio: We had one meeting with Putin and a dozen with Zelenskyy.

Europeans are coming because we’ve worked with them for weeks. Trump invited them — not to shield Zelenskyy. 1/
Q: Did Putin offer concessions?

Rubio: Not enough for Ukraine, or we’d have a deal. Russia lost 20,000 soldiers in July but keeps grinding on. It’s attrition, a meat grinder — they just throw in more men. 2/
Q: Does giving Russia land set dangerous precedent?

Rubio: Putin already seized land by force. For peace, both sides must concede — otherwise it’s surrender.

Ukraine has the right to security alliances. Territories will have to be discussed. Russia may have to give some up. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 18
NYT: After the Alaska summit, Putin said the war’s ‘root causes’ lie in Russia’s lost Cold War status, not Ukraine.

He avoided calling it a war, referred to ‘the situation around Ukraine,’ and demanded a new European ‘security balance’ to restore Moscow’s global power. 1/ Image
Putin linked today’s fighting to grievances first voiced in Munich 2007 and again in 2022: NATO expansion, loss of Moscow’s hegemony, and a world where Russia no longer sets the rules. 2/
This narrative casts Ukraine as a pawn in a Western plot. By refusing to name the war, Putin implies the real struggle is not territory, but Russia’s status against NATO and the US. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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