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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Aug 18 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
I don’t have insider info, but I think Trump gave Zelensky this choice: give up Donbas, or fight without U.S. support, without intelligence, without launch codes for weapons already supplied, and without permission for Europeans to arm Ukraine. 1/
The carrot may be funding for weapons and recovery, plus formal political security guarantees if he agrees. Zelensky didn’t argue, only said he needs to think. 2/
But I may be wrong. This is how it looks to me through game theory and conflict strategy. And theory is not reality. 3X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 20
Bessent: Russian economy imbalanced — 20%+ inflation, 25% of GDP from military buildup. Frozen assets used to finance war.

U.S. will raise secondary tariffs on India for Russian oil. Economics must pressure Putin to end war.

1/
Q: India and China oil imports?

Bessent: China imported 13% of oil from Russia pre-2022, now 16% — diversified supply.

India had <1% pre-war, now 42%. Indian firms profiteered, making $16B reselling cheap Russian oil.

This wartime arbitrage is unacceptable.
2/
Q: Did European tariff negotiations affect Ukraine talks?

Bessent: Yes. Successful EU tariff deal in Scotland weeks ago cleared ground. Meeting with Zelensky and EU leaders at WH showed unity on conflict resolution.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 20
Zelenskyy: Ukraine will hold elections after the war.

Express: Britain will help organize them:
1. including refugee voting abroad
2. countering disinformation
3. likely financing the process.

UK and Ukraine electoral commissions signed a pact. 1/ Image
Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia’s 2022 invasion. No elections for over 3 years.

Ukrainian Electoral Commission: the pact will strengthen cooperation, bring best practices, and prepare for “the most challenging elections in our country’s history.”

2/
Zelenskyy won in 2019 with a landslide. Re-election was due in 2024 but suspended by war.

Express writes that his approval rating now ~67% — among the highest for European leaders.
3X
Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 19
Q: Trump told you “Putin wants to make a deal for me.”
What do you think?

Macron: If a deal brings real peace, it’s good news. But it must not harm Ukraine or Europe.

It must let Ukrainians recover land, live safely, and deter future attacks.

1/
Q: Do you still think a ceasefire is necessary?

Macron: Yes. We must stop the killings:

1st for humanitarian reasons

2nd second to allow real talks.

You cannot negotiate peace under bombs.
2/
Q: What did you agree on security guarantees? US and European troops?

Macron: Key progress — the US will join the security framework.

Any deal without guarantees means Russia will break it, as seen in Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 19
Stubb: Ukraine is not alone now.

We spoke for 4 hours. Trump called Putin → 3 outcomes:

1. security guarantees,
2. Zelenskyy–Putin bilateral,
3. possible trilateral.

Putin’s aims remain: superpower Russia, split the West, deny Ukraine’s sovereignty.

0/
Q: You sat across from Trump when he called Putin. Was there talk about that call?

Stubb: Yes. We spent 4 hours with Trump, agreed he would tell Putin what was decided. The call was coordinated and constructive.

1/
Stubb: 3 outcomes today:

1. Security guarantees by Europe and U.S for Ukraine — work starts immediately.

2. Proposal for Zelensky–Putin bilateral.

3. If that works, trilateral meeting.

2/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 19
Axios: Rubio will lead US-European-Ukrainian talks on security guarantees for Ukraine.

A framework is expected within days. The plan would exclude NATO

membership and U.S. ground troops but could include U.S. air support for European forces. 1/ Image
Trump called Putin on Monday evening and told him he will have to meet directly with Zelensky to discuss his territorial demands and urged him to be ‘realistic’. 2/
Trump told Fox News the US is ready to provide air cover: “We will help by air.”

He said Ukraine won’t join NATO but agreed to work on “Article 5-like” guarantees with Europeans. 2/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 19
Merz: Russia’s demand that Kyiv give up the free parts of Donbas is like asking the US to give up Florida.

No one should force Ukraine into territorial concessions. Ukraine itself must decide this in the course of negotiations. 1/
Merz: The U.S., coordinated with Europe, is ready to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. If a peace deal is reached, Ukraine will receive them. 2/
Merz: I believe Trump was impressed that Europeans spoke with one voice. That mattered to me.

We spent hours preparing this meeting, and I wasn’t sure it would go so well. It could have gone differently, but my expectations were exceeded. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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