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https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1875452048491032974

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Stoic

@Stoiiic

May 19

$BTC Detailed Overview

Daily

> monthly profile - Jan point of control - ~105 unable to reclaim + multiple rejections so far.

> imbalance (untested conviction) between ~97-100.

> to keep it simple, 105 has remained a key area to flip to rotate towards ATH. However, repeated sell pressure + spot asks stacking every time price approaches this area indicating this has remained a premium for participants thus far. i.e. significant aggression required for turnover.

> note previous balance established here with value between 101 and 93. if acceptance back inside this expecting some reflexivity to the downside (this posture is aided by the aggressive positioning on the way up which lends well to unraveling).

TPO

> 10 day composite bracketing value b/w ~104 and 102.6 with breakout vwap providing reactions thus far.

> price currently trading into low side of composite value and discretionary vwap once again.

> on ltf (1 min), looks like perps are attempting to get aggressive while there is continued spot selling pressure currently.

> look for this general area for continued weakness or ltf bounce (need spot follow through for another attempt at rotating higher).

$BTC Spot

> 2.5% spot depth tells the story of 105+ remaining expensive (ask side skew moving to 100+ Ms in stacking when price approaches this area).

> currently slightly skewed towards the bid side - ~70Ms.

TLDR:

> 105 - key pivot for continuation to ATH - continued sell pressure above thus far.

> low to mid 102s aligned with balance value + breakout vwap (trading here currently).

> imbalance under here = potential reflexivity to the down-side with aggressive positioning established on the way up.

> 100 is a major milestone for $BTC so spending a lot of time under this area = sign to remain cautious and be flexible with posture.

tldr - im tired boss. price rugging with haste as I'm typing out the update and having to modify lol

anyway hope this helps.

Read 6 tweets

Stoic

@Stoiiic

Mar 7

“… time regulates price opportunity…” – Dalton

Everything TPO (time price opportunity)-
a detailed thread

> what are the tetris looking charts?
> why use time-based distributions?
> anomalies - what they mean and potential use
> composites
etc.

https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1875452048491032974

> how does time fit into applied auction market theory?
> what is tpo? (click on thread)
> what are potential benefits of incorporating tpo?

https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1875452048491032974

TPO on TradingView

Read 10 tweets

Stoic

@Stoiiic

Feb 24

$BTC Detailed Outlook

> time-based composite (Feb 2nd - current) value bracketed b/w 98.35 & 95.45.

> rotational regime continues w/ participants confirming price to be at a discount below & premium above value.

Looking at the last 6 sessions offered a rotation from the low to high, high to low of the established value.

recent poor low cleaned up with an ltf bounce (current).

to the upside, note naked vpoc left behind on the Friday sell-off (+ledge = resistance) at ~98.1.

passive spot continuing to quote price b/w low to mid 90s on the low side & high 90s to 100 on the high side.

Read 6 tweets

Stoic

@Stoiiic

Feb 20

Range Trading & Value (Part 2) - 🧵
Auction Market Theory + Flow

Part 2 covers practical frameworks including examples & discussion for trading in a range.

Rotational regimes are great for trading if you are patient and know what you're looking for.

Here's how that can look:

In a range-bound environment the question I'm looking to answer when price navigates towards extremes of value established in a ranging environment:

is the advertised discount or premium still considered a discount or premium by participants once price moves towards & away from extremes of value?

can deploy a two-pronged approach to attempt to answer this question:

1. passive flow
2. aggressive flow

1. Passive Flow

What does passive flow mean?
Why consider looking at aggregate spot behavior?
A recent $BTC example

Read 7 tweets

Stoic

@Stoiiic

Feb 18

https://twitter.com/Stoiiic/status/1887741850414391306

$BTC Detailed Outlook

Let's start with a look at the htf volume composite.

rotation to low side of value ✅
presenting a quick reaction on ltf.

https://twitter.com/Stoiiic/status/1887741850414391306

1 min. Coinalyze

assumption - price down, OI up, CVD perps down.

aggressive shorting on the last leg down starting from est. ~ 95s.

could be a case of squeeze bottom shorts & revisit lows to test conviction unless acceptance back into ltf value for rotation higher(see next).

$BTC 1H

fixed range volume composite from "liq. cascade" event show.

yearly open tapped and now pressing up against low side of value, this also lines up with current session PoC (~95.4-95.5).

i.e. bulls will want to see reclaim and strength above here for a reversal and potential rotation higher.

Read 7 tweets

Stoic

@Stoiiic

Feb 16

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

The Boom-Bust Sequence & The Comparison of Narrative Momentum & Price (in particular, Narrative Cycle Tops).

a thread 🧵

While reading through George Soros's "Alchemy of Finance" and Brent Donnelly's "Alpha Trader" (in particular, the narrative section), I was struck by several AHA moments.

I would like to try to recreate the same for you. At a minimum, by the end of this thread you should have some understanding of the following terms:

Reflexivity Boom-Bust Sequences Narrative Cycles Lag associated w/ Narrative & Price

Let's walk through it together.

Let's start with Reflexivity.

You can think of reflexivity as a feedback loop.

It stems from social theory and George Soros brought it into the world of finance.

An analogy: Pavlov's Experiment & Conditioning To make a long story short, Pavlov set up an experiment where he rang a bell before giving food to his dogs.

Initially, the dogs didn't give much of a shit when the bell was rung. With time, the ringing of the bell elicited a response in the dogs and they would salivate at the ringing of the bell (in anticipation of the food).

We'll come back to how this concept fits into The Boom-Bust Sequence.

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