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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Aug 20 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Bessent: Russian economy imbalanced — 20%+ inflation, 25% of GDP from military buildup. Frozen assets used to finance war.

U.S. will raise secondary tariffs on India for Russian oil. Economics must pressure Putin to end war.

1/
Q: India and China oil imports?

Bessent: China imported 13% of oil from Russia pre-2022, now 16% — diversified supply.

India had <1% pre-war, now 42%. Indian firms profiteered, making $16B reselling cheap Russian oil.

This wartime arbitrage is unacceptable.
2/
Q: Did European tariff negotiations affect Ukraine talks?

Bessent: Yes. Successful EU tariff deal in Scotland weeks ago cleared ground. Meeting with Zelensky and EU leaders at WH showed unity on conflict resolution.

3X
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 21
Giorgia Meloni proposes a NATO-light guarantee for Ukraine. If Russia attacks again, allies must decide within 24 hours on military and economic aid, reports Bloomberg.

Modeled on NATO’s Article 5, but without membership, using Italy’s 2024 security pact with Kyiv as blueprint.

1/Image
At the Aug 18 White House meeting, Trump, Zelensky, and EU leaders agreed on firmer guarantees.

Trump ruled out U.S. troops but suggested air support. France and the UK are weighing troop deployments as part of wider security guarantees.

2/
Italian Defense Min. Crosetto: NATO would be a “superior deterrent,” but individual nations could commit if NATO won’t.

Meloni first pitched NATO-style guarantees in March 2025. She now positions herself as bridge between Trump and Europe.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 21
Hodges: Trump shows none of the leadership attributes expected, takes no responsibility, always brags “I did this, I did that.” Around cagey old political leaders, it only makes him look weaker. European leaders should not be intimidated by him. 1/
Hodges: Trump has a reputation of backing down, so talk of security guarantees lacks weight. Few believed him when he said Putin wants peace. Putin wants peace, but only on his terms. Zelenskyy and European leaders know the situation in Ukraine isn’t as bad as portrayed. 2/
Hodges: Trump thinks talks alone can solve this, as if it were a simple deal, not cultural and historical issues. His approach was doomed since he won’t acknowledge that Russia is the aggressor. History shows even the “no cards” side can win. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 21
Lavrov: We see a clearer understanding in the U.S. that the roots of the crisis must be addressed, rather than repeating slogans about an immediate ceasefire while pumping Ukraine with weapons, as Macron proposed. 1/
Lavrov: It’s good that these absolutely reckless and confrontational positions in favor of prolonging the war find no support in the current U.S. administration.

Which seeks to get to the essence of the problem and eliminate the root causes. 2/
Lavrov: As for reports that the UK, France, and Germany want to develop collective security guarantees — we support such guarantees if they are truly reliable.

A good example is the Ukrainian initiative in Istanbul in April 2022. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 20
Where could Putin and Zelenskyy meet?

5 options under discussion.[info from Bloomberg, Politico, Reuters, France 24].

1/ Image
1. Budapest

On Aug 19, Trump called Orban and told: unblock Ukraine’s EU bid.

Orban: hold the summit in Budapest.

He backs both Trump and Putin, and blocks EU aid to Ukraine.

2/
2. Geneva

Swiss FM Ignazio Cassis said: we’ll host Putin, despite the ICC warrant.

Macron backed Geneva.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 20
Christian Caryl for Foreign Policy on Witkoff:

During negotiations, he misrepresented what he heard from the Kremlin and confused the names of Ukrainian cities. 1/ Image
Just read what Witkoff says:

Kyiv “discriminates” against Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine, ignoring that hundreds of thousands fled westward into democratic Ukraine rather than staying in occupied areas. 2/
In an interview with Tucker, Witkoff claimed Moscow’s occupation was legitimized by “referendums” where a supposed majority voted for Russian rule. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 20
Zelenskyy: Ukraine will hold elections after the war.

Express: Britain will help organize them:
1. including refugee voting abroad
2. countering disinformation
3. likely financing the process.

UK and Ukraine electoral commissions signed a pact. 1/ Image
Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia’s 2022 invasion. No elections for over 3 years.

Ukrainian Electoral Commission: the pact will strengthen cooperation, bring best practices, and prepare for “the most challenging elections in our country’s history.”

2/
Zelenskyy won in 2019 with a landslide. Re-election was due in 2024 but suspended by war.

Express writes that his approval rating now ~67% — among the highest for European leaders.
3X
Read 4 tweets

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