1/4 If Trump truly believes Putin wants peace, he’s a huge idiot.
If he doesn’t, he’s a traitor helping Putin.
Putin has zero incentive to stop the war—he hasn’t achieved his goals, isn’t close, and faces no real pressure from the West, especially from the Trump administration
2/4 Putin believes time is on his side. He thinks he’ll outlast Western support for Ukraine and get a better deal later.
Trump’s behavior reinforces that belief.
Instead of pressuring russia, Trump pressures Ukraine—trying to force it into a bad, unfair deal
3/4 As @Podolyak_M said:
“11 years of russian invasion have taught us that neither the most optimistic nor the most pessimistic scenarios ever come true.”
The same applies to negotiations.
Trump’s lack of leverage on Ukraine helps prevent a forced bad deal
1/11 Trump thinks russia holds the cards. It doesn’t.
russia lied to him—and to the world. Its war in Ukraine is a strategic disaster.
If Trump were negotiating in good faith, here are a few key facts he’d need to understand 👇
2/11 russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is a colossal failure.
Its goal was regime change—turning Ukraine into a satellite state. It failed to take Kyiv. Zelensky stayed. That was russia’s strategic defeat.
Everything since has been damage control
3/11 russia is further from its goals now than in March 2022.
It controls less territory than it did 3 weeks into the war. From ~30% of Ukraine in March 2022 to under 20% now. In the last 1000 days, it has gained <1% of Ukraine—at the cost of ~1 million casualties.