1/ The Washington Summit, following the Trump-Putin meeting, revealed less “Western unity” than the quiet shifts already underway.
Sanctions? Off the table.
U.S. troops in Ukraine? Not happening.
NATO membership for Kiev? Effectively dead.
Everyone knows it — no one says it. 🧵
Sanctions? Off the table.
U.S. troops in Ukraine? Not happening.
NATO membership for Kiev? Effectively dead.
Everyone knows it — no one says it. 🧵
2/ The Washington summit, following Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska, revealed less about Western “unity” than about the quiet but decisive shifts already underway.
3/ Beneath the speeches and photo ops, the direction is clear: Trump has not moved an inch since Alaska.
Sanctions remain off the table. U.S. troops on Ukrainian soil — even dressed up as “peacekeepers” — are not going to happen.
Sanctions remain off the table. U.S. troops on Ukrainian soil — even dressed up as “peacekeepers” — are not going to happen.
4/ The Europeans pressed hard for “security guarantees” and tried to repackage Article 5 for Ukraine, but NATO membership for Kiev is effectively over. Everyone at the table knows it, even if no one wants to say it plainly.
5/ @TarikCyrilAmar argued that diplomacy of this kind cannot play out in public.
The lack of detail is not a weakness but a sign of seriousness. Real negotiations, especially ones aimed at ending wars, are conducted behind closed doors.
The lack of detail is not a weakness but a sign of seriousness. Real negotiations, especially ones aimed at ending wars, are conducted behind closed doors.
6/ For Europe, this is a difficult adjustment. Politicians invoke history, sometimes reaching for Bismarck or Kohl analogies to cast themselves as statesmen.
7/ Yet the reality is more modest: Europe is struggling to find a role beyond rhetoric. The continent has influence — economic weight, military capability, a seat at the table — but it is not the driver of this process.
That role belongs, for now, to Washington and Moscow.
That role belongs, for now, to Washington and Moscow.
8/ This does not mean Europe is irrelevant. Europe will bear many of the long-term consequences of the eventual settlement, from security arrangements in the East to the reshaping of energy and trade relations.
9/ But the unfortunate truth is that Europe has become more comfortable with moral theater than with realpolitik. Foreign ministers speak more of war than of diplomacy, and too often nuance gives way to slogans.
10/ Meanwhile, the loudest debates in Western capitals obscure the simpler fact: Russia has shown restraint. Despite receiving an unprecedented flow of Western arms, intelligence, and financial support, Ukraine has not provoked Moscow into striking NATO directly.
11/ If Russia had intended to expand the war to Poland, the Baltics, or Germany, it would have already had countless pretexts. It hasn’t. That silence, that limit, matters more than the constant drumbeat about an imminent Russian march westward.
12/ So, where are we left? With a negotiation that will not end in victory for Kiev but in a settlement shaped first in Moscow and Washington.
13/ Europe’s challenge is whether it will be a participant in shaping the future security order — or whether it will resign itself to commentary from the sidelines.
14/ @TarikCyrilAmar also reminded us of something worth repeating: diplomacy is not built on trust. Trust is a luxury, not a foundation. What matters are power, capability, and leverage. If trust comes at the end of a successful process, it is a byproduct, not a starting point.
15/ Europe must relearn this. To negotiate is not to capitulate. To compromise is not to betray, because the alternative is to cling to slogans while others cut the deals.
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