Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 21 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Lavrov: We see a clearer understanding in the U.S. that the roots of the crisis must be addressed, rather than repeating slogans about an immediate ceasefire while pumping Ukraine with weapons, as Macron proposed. 1/
Lavrov: It’s good that these absolutely reckless and confrontational positions in favor of prolonging the war find no support in the current U.S. administration.

Which seeks to get to the essence of the problem and eliminate the root causes. 2/
Lavrov: As for reports that the UK, France, and Germany want to develop collective security guarantees — we support such guarantees if they are truly reliable.

A good example is the Ukrainian initiative in Istanbul in April 2022. 3/
Lavrov: Ukrainian delegation then proposed core principles to end hostilities and secure a stable settlement:

1. Ukraine renounces NATO or any other military blocs.
2. Ukraine confirms neutral and non-nuclear status. 4/
Lavrov: Ukraine proposed — and our delegation agreed — to design security guarantees with all permanent UN Security Council members: Russia, China, the U.S., France, Britain, and others like Germany and Turkey. 5/
Lavrov: That proposal meant guarantees would be equal.

Security of all sides, including Ukraine’s neighbors, would be ensured on a fair, balanced, and indivisible basis. 6/
Lavrov: Russia supported this and was ready to proceed.

The draft was initialed, and we were ready to sign a formal treaty. 7/
Lavrov: But Boris Johnson, then UK PM, came to Kyiv and forbade his protégés from signing anything, demanding continuation of the war.

Without that, much could already have been achieved for a lasting settlement. 8/
Lavrov: We cannot accept attempts to design collective security without Russia. That will not work.

Russia is not inflating its demands, but we will defend our legitimate interests firmly. 9/
Lavrov: The West, above all the U.S., understands perfectly well that serious talks on security without Russia are a dead end. 10X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 22
Q: How much land does Russia want?

Stubb on Aug. 20 : For Americans, imagine giving up Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia, and pushing into Maryland.

That’s the scale of territory. 1/
Q: When and where could the bilateral take place?

Stubb: Geneva in Switzerland could work, but final choice is up to the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. 2/
Q: Does Trump understand what Putin wants?

Stubb: Yes. Don’t underestimate his negotiating skills. He knows land and real estate, so he grasps the scale. Negotiations will be tough. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 22
Zelenskyy: This month Ukraine raised $1.5B from EU partners to buy U.S. weapons - Patriots, HIMARS, missiles. (Pearl program).

Rutte: 2 layers of security guarantees:

1. A strong Ukrainian army after peace.

2. Guarantees by the U.S. and Europe. (Not like Budapest or Minsk)
1/
Zelenskyy: We have no agreements with Russians.

We agreed with President Trump, and he is the only person who can stop Putin in my view.

I don’t want to set conditions that could later be used as obstacles to end the war.

2/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine needs $1–1.5B monthly for Pearl program. Domestic drone industry has $6B gap. Drones are weapon No.1, reducing losses and holding the front.

Rutte: NATO’s 5% GDP defense spending deal will also finance weapons for Ukraine.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 22
Lavrov demands a Russian veto on Ukraine’s security. He revives the 2022 Istanbul draft with Moscow & Beijing as guarantors.

Lavrov: Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after prep talks and if Kyiv resolves the legitimacy of who signs any deal, Reuters/Guardian.[Zero concessions]

1/ Image
Lavrov ruled out European troops in Ukraine after a settlement. He called them foreign intervention and absolutely unacceptable.

On the same day, Russia launched 574 drones & 40 missiles. Strikes killed 1, injured 15, and hit Lviv — 26 homes, a kindergarten, offices damaged.

2/
A U.S. electronics factory in Ukraine was destroyed.

Zelenskyy: Russia deliberately attacked U.S. property, injuring 6 workers.

AmCham: Russia is attacking American business, humiliating American business.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 22
Trump demands Ukraine give up land in exchange for an uncertain peace.

This raises doubts about US’s reliability as a security partner in Asia -  C. Raja Mohan for FP.

Rewarding Russia’s territorial expansion could embolden China, especially in Taiwan and maritime disputes.
1/ Image
Trump seeks to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing but risks weakening Asian alliances.

India faces tension as the U.S. targets Russian oil imports but spares China, offering little strategic relief.

2/
Trump’s policy weakens Asia’s security, as many countries depend on vulnerable bilateral ties.

His underestimation of China and overconfidence in U.S. influence leave allies at risk.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 22
Bolton: People discuss an Article 5-like guarantee for Ukraine since NATO is ruled out by Russia and Trump. It says members act as they deem appropriate, very vague. Could mean force, or just a note. If language satisfies Ukraine, question remains: will forces back it up? 1/
Bolton: Merz faces pressure from AFD and Social Democrats. Deploying forces looks warlike, but key is how they fit into the security guarantee. Germany has sent troops to UN missions. Peacekeepers only observe and report, like Rwanda, not fix the situation. 2/
Bolton: Lavrov said security guarantees should involve the 5 permanent UN Security Council members, including Russia and China. Moscow proposed this before in Turkey. Many see it as legitimacy, unlike in the US. Russians may use it as cover for their aims. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 21
Giorgia Meloni proposes a NATO-light guarantee for Ukraine. If Russia attacks again, allies must decide within 24 hours on military and economic aid, reports Bloomberg.

Modeled on NATO’s Article 5, but without membership, using Italy’s 2024 security pact with Kyiv as blueprint.

1/Image
At the Aug 18 White House meeting, Trump, Zelensky, and EU leaders agreed on firmer guarantees.

Trump ruled out U.S. troops but suggested air support. France and the UK are weighing troop deployments as part of wider security guarantees.

2/
Italian Defense Min. Crosetto: NATO would be a “superior deterrent,” but individual nations could commit if NATO won’t.

Meloni first pitched NATO-style guarantees in March 2025. She now positions herself as bridge between Trump and Europe.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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