Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 21 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Hodges: Trump shows none of the leadership attributes expected, takes no responsibility, always brags “I did this, I did that.” Around cagey old political leaders, it only makes him look weaker. European leaders should not be intimidated by him. 1/
Hodges: Trump has a reputation of backing down, so talk of security guarantees lacks weight. Few believed him when he said Putin wants peace. Putin wants peace, but only on his terms. Zelenskyy and European leaders know the situation in Ukraine isn’t as bad as portrayed. 2/
Hodges: Trump thinks talks alone can solve this, as if it were a simple deal, not cultural and historical issues. His approach was doomed since he won’t acknowledge that Russia is the aggressor. History shows even the “no cards” side can win. 3/
Hodges: Trump wants to skip the ceasefire and go straight to peace, but no one believed Russia would live up to it. The challenge is who provides the guarantee, their mission, rules of engagement. Russians would test it. A ceasefire would help reach a long-term solution. 4/
Hodges: Zelenskyy insisted talks be at the leader level, not with deputies. Macron added a quadrilateral for European security so Europe isn’t sidelined. Hope Germany and others keep investing in Ukraine’s defense industry. 5/
Hodges: Trump has always leaned toward Russia. Zelenskyy knows the U.S. can’t be relied on alone — Europe must act more. Ukraine’s success and Russia returning to its borders serve our interests. Zelenskyy questions why the U.S. suggests giving up unconquered territory. 6/
Hodges: I thought Rubio was the only responsible, thoughtful cabinet pick, with Senate experience. Disappointed he fully backs Trump, but he’s emerging as the leader on big foreign policy issues — Ukraine, Europe, alliances, China, Iran. 7X

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 8
Gen. Dan Caine: Ukraine’s industrial base building tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands of drones is extraordinary.

Those are the entrepreneurial lessons we need from that fight. It’s another case study in the importance of putting air power over a battlefield. 1/
Caine: The fixed and frozen lines in Ukraine show an opportunity to learn about protecting the force on the ground.

Having been one of those guys on the ground, I value air power that can put an adversary in a particular place of pain. We must scale our own FPV capabilities. 2/
Caine: A major lesson from Ukraine is the need for mass.

Future wars will involve unprecedented kinetic and non-kinetic exchanges.

So we’ll need a new high-low mix: a few bespoke systems, but far more low-cost, expendable ones that create many dilemmas for an adversary. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Macron: Russia’s position about peace in Ukraine hasn’t changed since Istanbul 2022.

It demands control of all claimed territories, no security guarantees for Ukraine, and political changes in Kyiv.

These are surrender terms. Peace proposals exist, but Russia rejects them. 1/
Macron: If Russia keeps these terms, talks cannot move. The only strategy is to continue military support for Ukraine and provide economic pressure on Russia.

The US and Europe must stay aligned: the US leads diplomacy, Europe provides security guarantees and frozen assets. 2/
Macron: China and Brazil work in the “group of friends of peace.” China accepts that any peace must prevent renewed aggression.

Defense chiefs from the US, France, and the UK coordinate on security planning, but Russia shows no readiness to negotiate. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Democratic Senator Peter Welch: Congress rejected Trump’s 28-point “peace plan” because it looked like a surrender to Russia.

The plan required Ukraine to give up territory it still controls — that’s unacceptable. 1/
Peter Welch: Some in Trump’s team lean toward Russia, but he wants a deal. A sanctions bill now has 85 co-sponsors — almost never happens in the Senate.

Any peace agreement must ensure Russia cannot resume aggression. Ukraine needs real security guarantees. 2/
Peter Welch: If peace talks fail, the U.S. should increase pressure: allow Ukraine to hit military sites inside Russia and cut Moscow’s oil revenues from India and China.

The terms must be set by Ukraine — not Washington and not Moscow. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Germany’s Merz says frozen Russian assets for Ukraine must be a shared EU risk — and Belgium cannot be left carrying the burden alone — Reuters.

Merz writes in FAZ that EU states must incur an equal share of the risk, as a function of their respective economic performance. 1/ Image
After the European Commission proposed using or borrowing against frozen Russian state assets to raise €90B for Ukraine.

Belgium, which holds the largest share of these assets, has resisted without legal guarantees. 2/
Merz says political assurances are insufficient and Brussels is right to demand binding protection.

Merz: It would be unacceptable for a single country to bear an excessive burden, — signalling Berlin’s support for a collective EU liability structure. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 7
Trump’s new National Security Strategy drops shared values and replaces them with raw power.

It calls this flexible realism. In practice it rewrites alliances, revives 19th-century spheres of influence and alarms every major US partner — The Economist. 1/ Image
Released quietly on Dec 4-5, the NSS declares America’s alliances are not built on common values but on what works for America.

It rejects the idea that democracies bind together around principles. It presents power, not ideals, as the core of US policy. 2/
On Ukraine, the strategy assumes Europeans want peace even if it means concessions to Putin. It urges a fast end to the war to prevent escalation, questions NATO enlargement, and avoids any mention of Russia’s decade of aggression — a posture that looks like appeasement. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Dec 7
Trump's National Security Strategy confirms what Europe refuses to see. The US now prioritizes Russia ties and seeks to divide the continent, FP.

Europe faces two adversaries — Russia in the east, Trump's America in the west. 1/ Image
Europeans bet Trump was unpredictable but manageable. They were wrong.

From Vance’s Munich speech to the Dec 4 security strategy, the vision is clear: strengthen US-Russia ties while far-right forces — backed by Moscow and Washington — work to divide Europe. 2/
Every time Trump acts on Ukraine, he sides with Russia — the Oval Office trap for Zelenskyy, the red carpet for Putin in Alaska, the 28-point plan likely written in Moscow.

Europeans keep flattering Washington, hoping to salvage the transatlantic bond. They're losing this bet. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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