Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 21 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Hodges: Trump shows none of the leadership attributes expected, takes no responsibility, always brags “I did this, I did that.” Around cagey old political leaders, it only makes him look weaker. European leaders should not be intimidated by him. 1/
Hodges: Trump has a reputation of backing down, so talk of security guarantees lacks weight. Few believed him when he said Putin wants peace. Putin wants peace, but only on his terms. Zelenskyy and European leaders know the situation in Ukraine isn’t as bad as portrayed. 2/
Hodges: Trump thinks talks alone can solve this, as if it were a simple deal, not cultural and historical issues. His approach was doomed since he won’t acknowledge that Russia is the aggressor. History shows even the “no cards” side can win. 3/
Hodges: Trump wants to skip the ceasefire and go straight to peace, but no one believed Russia would live up to it. The challenge is who provides the guarantee, their mission, rules of engagement. Russians would test it. A ceasefire would help reach a long-term solution. 4/
Hodges: Zelenskyy insisted talks be at the leader level, not with deputies. Macron added a quadrilateral for European security so Europe isn’t sidelined. Hope Germany and others keep investing in Ukraine’s defense industry. 5/
Hodges: Trump has always leaned toward Russia. Zelenskyy knows the U.S. can’t be relied on alone — Europe must act more. Ukraine’s success and Russia returning to its borders serve our interests. Zelenskyy questions why the U.S. suggests giving up unconquered territory. 6/
Hodges: I thought Rubio was the only responsible, thoughtful cabinet pick, with Senate experience. Disappointed he fully backs Trump, but he’s emerging as the leader on big foreign policy issues — Ukraine, Europe, alliances, China, Iran. 7X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 22
Q: How much land does Russia want?

Stubb on Aug. 20 : For Americans, imagine giving up Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia, and pushing into Maryland.

That’s the scale of territory. 1/
Q: When and where could the bilateral take place?

Stubb: Geneva in Switzerland could work, but final choice is up to the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. 2/
Q: Does Trump understand what Putin wants?

Stubb: Yes. Don’t underestimate his negotiating skills. He knows land and real estate, so he grasps the scale. Negotiations will be tough. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 22
Zelenskyy: This month Ukraine raised $1.5B from EU partners to buy U.S. weapons - Patriots, HIMARS, missiles. (Pearl program).

Rutte: 2 layers of security guarantees:

1. A strong Ukrainian army after peace.

2. Guarantees by the U.S. and Europe. (Not like Budapest or Minsk)
1/
Zelenskyy: We have no agreements with Russians.

We agreed with President Trump, and he is the only person who can stop Putin in my view.

I don’t want to set conditions that could later be used as obstacles to end the war.

2/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine needs $1–1.5B monthly for Pearl program. Domestic drone industry has $6B gap. Drones are weapon No.1, reducing losses and holding the front.

Rutte: NATO’s 5% GDP defense spending deal will also finance weapons for Ukraine.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 22
Lavrov demands a Russian veto on Ukraine’s security. He revives the 2022 Istanbul draft with Moscow & Beijing as guarantors.

Lavrov: Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after prep talks and if Kyiv resolves the legitimacy of who signs any deal, Reuters/Guardian.[Zero concessions]

1/ Image
Lavrov ruled out European troops in Ukraine after a settlement. He called them foreign intervention and absolutely unacceptable.

On the same day, Russia launched 574 drones & 40 missiles. Strikes killed 1, injured 15, and hit Lviv — 26 homes, a kindergarten, offices damaged.

2/
A U.S. electronics factory in Ukraine was destroyed.

Zelenskyy: Russia deliberately attacked U.S. property, injuring 6 workers.

AmCham: Russia is attacking American business, humiliating American business.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 22
Trump demands Ukraine give up land in exchange for an uncertain peace.

This raises doubts about US’s reliability as a security partner in Asia -  C. Raja Mohan for FP.

Rewarding Russia’s territorial expansion could embolden China, especially in Taiwan and maritime disputes.
1/ Image
Trump seeks to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing but risks weakening Asian alliances.

India faces tension as the U.S. targets Russian oil imports but spares China, offering little strategic relief.

2/
Trump’s policy weakens Asia’s security, as many countries depend on vulnerable bilateral ties.

His underestimation of China and overconfidence in U.S. influence leave allies at risk.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 22
Bolton: People discuss an Article 5-like guarantee for Ukraine since NATO is ruled out by Russia and Trump. It says members act as they deem appropriate, very vague. Could mean force, or just a note. If language satisfies Ukraine, question remains: will forces back it up? 1/
Bolton: Merz faces pressure from AFD and Social Democrats. Deploying forces looks warlike, but key is how they fit into the security guarantee. Germany has sent troops to UN missions. Peacekeepers only observe and report, like Rwanda, not fix the situation. 2/
Bolton: Lavrov said security guarantees should involve the 5 permanent UN Security Council members, including Russia and China. Moscow proposed this before in Turkey. Many see it as legitimacy, unlike in the US. Russians may use it as cover for their aims. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 21
Giorgia Meloni proposes a NATO-light guarantee for Ukraine. If Russia attacks again, allies must decide within 24 hours on military and economic aid, reports Bloomberg.

Modeled on NATO’s Article 5, but without membership, using Italy’s 2024 security pact with Kyiv as blueprint.

1/Image
At the Aug 18 White House meeting, Trump, Zelensky, and EU leaders agreed on firmer guarantees.

Trump ruled out U.S. troops but suggested air support. France and the UK are weighing troop deployments as part of wider security guarantees.

2/
Italian Defense Min. Crosetto: NATO would be a “superior deterrent,” but individual nations could commit if NATO won’t.

Meloni first pitched NATO-style guarantees in March 2025. She now positions herself as bridge between Trump and Europe.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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