Hodges: Trump shows none of the leadership attributes expected, takes no responsibility, always brags “I did this, I did that.” Around cagey old political leaders, it only makes him look weaker. European leaders should not be intimidated by him. 1/
Hodges: Trump has a reputation of backing down, so talk of security guarantees lacks weight. Few believed him when he said Putin wants peace. Putin wants peace, but only on his terms. Zelenskyy and European leaders know the situation in Ukraine isn’t as bad as portrayed. 2/
Hodges: Trump thinks talks alone can solve this, as if it were a simple deal, not cultural and historical issues. His approach was doomed since he won’t acknowledge that Russia is the aggressor. History shows even the “no cards” side can win. 3/
Hodges: Trump wants to skip the ceasefire and go straight to peace, but no one believed Russia would live up to it. The challenge is who provides the guarantee, their mission, rules of engagement. Russians would test it. A ceasefire would help reach a long-term solution. 4/
Hodges: Zelenskyy insisted talks be at the leader level, not with deputies. Macron added a quadrilateral for European security so Europe isn’t sidelined. Hope Germany and others keep investing in Ukraine’s defense industry. 5/
Hodges: Trump has always leaned toward Russia. Zelenskyy knows the U.S. can’t be relied on alone — Europe must act more. Ukraine’s success and Russia returning to its borders serve our interests. Zelenskyy questions why the U.S. suggests giving up unconquered territory. 6/
Hodges: I thought Rubio was the only responsible, thoughtful cabinet pick, with Senate experience. Disappointed he fully backs Trump, but he’s emerging as the leader on big foreign policy issues — Ukraine, Europe, alliances, China, Iran. 7X
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Zelenskyy: This month Ukraine raised $1.5B from EU partners to buy U.S. weapons - Patriots, HIMARS, missiles. (Pearl program).
Rutte: 2 layers of security guarantees:
1. A strong Ukrainian army after peace.
2. Guarantees by the U.S. and Europe. (Not like Budapest or Minsk) 1/
Zelenskyy: We have no agreements with Russians.
We agreed with President Trump, and he is the only person who can stop Putin in my view.
I don’t want to set conditions that could later be used as obstacles to end the war.
2/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine needs $1–1.5B monthly for Pearl program. Domestic drone industry has $6B gap. Drones are weapon No.1, reducing losses and holding the front.
Rutte: NATO’s 5% GDP defense spending deal will also finance weapons for Ukraine.
Bolton: People discuss an Article 5-like guarantee for Ukraine since NATO is ruled out by Russia and Trump. It says members act as they deem appropriate, very vague. Could mean force, or just a note. If language satisfies Ukraine, question remains: will forces back it up? 1/
Bolton: Merz faces pressure from AFD and Social Democrats. Deploying forces looks warlike, but key is how they fit into the security guarantee. Germany has sent troops to UN missions. Peacekeepers only observe and report, like Rwanda, not fix the situation. 2/
Bolton: Lavrov said security guarantees should involve the 5 permanent UN Security Council members, including Russia and China. Moscow proposed this before in Turkey. Many see it as legitimacy, unlike in the US. Russians may use it as cover for their aims. 3/
Giorgia Meloni proposes a NATO-light guarantee for Ukraine. If Russia attacks again, allies must decide within 24 hours on military and economic aid, reports Bloomberg.
Modeled on NATO’s Article 5, but without membership, using Italy’s 2024 security pact with Kyiv as blueprint.
1/
At the Aug 18 White House meeting, Trump, Zelensky, and EU leaders agreed on firmer guarantees.
Trump ruled out U.S. troops but suggested air support. France and the UK are weighing troop deployments as part of wider security guarantees.
2/
Italian Defense Min. Crosetto: NATO would be a “superior deterrent,” but individual nations could commit if NATO won’t.
Meloni first pitched NATO-style guarantees in March 2025. She now positions herself as bridge between Trump and Europe.
3/