Thread by @terjehelland

🇬🇪Why is Georgian Dream surviving despite mass protests, backlash, and international condemnation?

The answer isn’t repression alone. It’s money.

🧵A thread on how Bidzina Ivanishvili’s fortune and Russian inflows saved his regime - and why it’s still may crack.
1/15

This thread draws on an excellent analysis by Jaba Devdariani @JDevdariani & Tornike Zurabashvili @TornikeZ :
“How Money Saved Ivanishvili’s Regime”.

Highly recommended reading ⬇️
2/15
politicsgeo.com/article/168

In Georgia, politics has always been about democracy and economics.

Ivanishvili reshaped the system: not just a political boss balancing elites, but a Russia created billionaire oligarch with his own stake in the economy.
3/15

His wealth insulated him from electoral pressure. When Georgian Dream risked losing in 2018 and 2020, Ivanishvili simply poured in millions to flip the results.

He became the “lender of last resort” for regime survival.
4/15

But Georgia wasn’t just a profit play.

For Ivanishvili, controlling the state meant a sovereign shield for his assets. That shield became essential after his battles with Credit Suisse and paranoia about Western “conspiracies.”
5/15

Then came Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While the Georgian people stood with Kyiv, Georgian Dream stood with Moscow - not out of ideology, but for profit.
6/15

Tens of thousands of Russians🇷🇺 relocated to Georgia.

In 2022 alone, they brought $2 billion+ into banks, bought real estate, and opened 11,000 firms.
The economy boomed.
GDP:
2022: 10.4% ,
2023: 7.8% ,
2024. 9.4% .
7/15

Georgia also became a sanctions gray zone:
🔹Car re-exports jumped from $0.5B (2021) to $2.4B (2024).
🔹Evidence of dual-use electronics transiting to Russia.
🔹Russian oil imports doubled, possibly resold to Europe.

Profit > principle.
8/15

Ivanishvili turned this windfall into a political weapon.

Social spending soared: debt forgiveness, salary hikes, welfare for nearly 1/5 of voters.
During elections citizens were warned: vote against GD, lose your benefits.
9/15

Meanwhile, the EU’s interest in the Middle Corridor and energy projects emboldened GD.

Leaders claimed: “Europe needs Georgia as much as Georgia needs Europe.”
The regime felt untouchable.
10/16

Flush with cash, GD cracked down harder:
🔹Laws strangling foreign-funded NGOs & media.
🔹Massive fines on protesters.
🔹Business elites keep quiet, fearing losses.

Pro-democracy forces were pushed to the brink.
11/16 transparency.org/en/press/democ…

But repression didn’t kill resistance.

Protests widened cracks inside GD, triggered defections, and exposed Ivanishvili’s vulnerabilities.
He rushed to repatriate assets under sanction threats - tying his fate even closer to Georgia🇬🇪.
12/16

Now the model is hitting limits:
🔹Russian inflows are dwindling.
🔹Internal purges expose fractures.
🔹Without natural resources or charisma, a personalized autocracy looks fragile.
13/16
civil.ge/archives/692161

Here lies a paradox:

Because Ivanishvili’s system is so dependent on money flows and his personal fortune, targeted Western sanctions could have an outsized impact.
14/16

The key targets are clear:

🔹Ivanishvili himself and his overseas assets.
🔹His inner circle of business allies who profit from state contracts.
🔹Banks and companies in Georgia tied to sanctions evasion.
🔹Corrupt judges

Squeeze these, and the regime’s lifeline breaks.
15/17

Georgia’s people still demand democracy, rule of law, and Europe.

That’s the regime’s deepest fear - and the West’s greatest responsibility.

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16/16buymeacoffee.com/terjehelland