Thread by @hathyogi31

Was Modi got betrayed?

In Indian politics, few things remain confined to closed rooms of power. They inevitably spill out—onto television debates, WhatsApp forwards, and most potently, onto Twitter.
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Read the entire post to know the connections on this

The story begins with Operation Sindoor, a decisive counter-terror operation launched after the April 22 terror attack. The operation elevated Modi’s image to new heights—strong, resolute, a leader who meant business. His political persona seemed at its peak: a Prime Minister who did what he promised.

Yet, in the aftermath, the narrative shifted abruptly. A sudden ceasefire was announced, and almost instantly, President Donald Trump claimed credit. This was no minor declaration. Trump publicly stated that it was his intervention that brought the ceasefire.

The opposition seized the moment. “If India’s foreign policy is truly independent,” they asked, “why does Trump claim ownership of your military decisions?” Even more damaging was Modi’s silence. A leader once known for fiery words against terrorism appeared muted.

This silence sparked whispers: who had forced Modi into silence?

The Ambani Angle

The storm intensified when U.S. sanctions hit India. The trigger? Oil. Washington accused India of helping its billionaires profit massively from Russian crude while hiding behind foreign policy rhetoric. The finger, unsurprisingly, pointed towards Mukesh Ambani.

Reports suggested Reliance Industries earned nearly $6 billion in profits from refining and reselling Russian oil—part of the $16 billion surplus India made during the war years. The timing raised eyebrows. As long as Modi remained quiet about Trump’s ceasefire claim, Washington stayed tolerant. But the day Modi countered Trump’s narrative in Parliament, sanctions followed.

Was Ambani playing a double game—profiting from the crisis while ensuring Modi’s silence to keep Washington at bay?

The Foreign Policy Web

This brings us to another power player: S. Jaishankar, India’s External Affairs Minister. Lauded globally for defending India’s oil strategy, Jaishankar was the architect of the “Russia oil gamble.” Yet, questions emerged when attention turned to his son, Dhruva Jaishankar.

Dhruva, a prominent policy analyst, heads the U.S. operations of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF)—India’s most influential foreign policy think tank. ORF is known for shaping strategic discourse through its flagship Raisina Dialogue. But peel back the layers, and another name appears—Reliance Industries, which funds a majority of ORF’s operations.

Until 2009, Reliance contributed nearly 95% of ORF’s budget. Today, that figure still hovers around 65%. The trust’s leadership is dotted with executives tied directly to Reliance. Even ORF’s current president, Samir Saran, is a former Reliance employee.

Put bluntly: ORF, which helps shape India’s foreign policy outlook, is bankrolled by the same corporate empire accused of benefiting the most from Russian oil.

Enter Shashi Tharoor: The Wild Card

Here’s the twist many on Twitter are whispering about: Shashi Tharoor.

Why Tharoor—and Why Now?

Gravitas & global Rolodex: Former UN diplomat, ex-MoS External Affairs, articulate on multilateralism—Tharoor has long projected himself as a cosmopolitan foreign-policy mind, a foreign minister, who plays comfortably on the world stage.

If the “betrayal” meme erodes trust in the current foreign-policy brain-trust, it naturally creates political space for an alternative face—one with credibility abroad and recall at home.

For Modi, the stakes are enormous. His image as a decisive leader—one who acts without fear—was his strongest political weapon. Operation Sindoor had reinforced it. But silence, sanctions, and whispers of betrayal risk dulling that edge.

The real question is not whether Modi was betrayed. It is: who gains from Modi’s silence, and who gains from Modi’s fall?