Bolton: People discuss an Article 5-like guarantee for Ukraine since NATO is ruled out by Russia and Trump. It says members act as they deem appropriate, very vague. Could mean force, or just a note. If language satisfies Ukraine, question remains: will forces back it up? 1/
Bolton: Merz faces pressure from AFD and Social Democrats. Deploying forces looks warlike, but key is how they fit into the security guarantee. Germany has sent troops to UN missions. Peacekeepers only observe and report, like Rwanda, not fix the situation. 2/
Bolton: Lavrov said security guarantees should involve the 5 permanent UN Security Council members, including Russia and China. Moscow proposed this before in Turkey. Many see it as legitimacy, unlike in the US. Russians may use it as cover for their aims. 3/
Giorgia Meloni proposes a NATO-light guarantee for Ukraine. If Russia attacks again, allies must decide within 24 hours on military and economic aid, reports Bloomberg.
Modeled on NATO’s Article 5, but without membership, using Italy’s 2024 security pact with Kyiv as blueprint.
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At the Aug 18 White House meeting, Trump, Zelensky, and EU leaders agreed on firmer guarantees.
Trump ruled out U.S. troops but suggested air support. France and the UK are weighing troop deployments as part of wider security guarantees.
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Italian Defense Min. Crosetto: NATO would be a “superior deterrent,” but individual nations could commit if NATO won’t.
Meloni first pitched NATO-style guarantees in March 2025. She now positions herself as bridge between Trump and Europe.
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Hodges: Trump shows none of the leadership attributes expected, takes no responsibility, always brags “I did this, I did that.” Around cagey old political leaders, it only makes him look weaker. European leaders should not be intimidated by him. 1/
Hodges: Trump has a reputation of backing down, so talk of security guarantees lacks weight. Few believed him when he said Putin wants peace. Putin wants peace, but only on his terms. Zelenskyy and European leaders know the situation in Ukraine isn’t as bad as portrayed. 2/
Hodges: Trump thinks talks alone can solve this, as if it were a simple deal, not cultural and historical issues. His approach was doomed since he won’t acknowledge that Russia is the aggressor. History shows even the “no cards” side can win. 3/
Lavrov: We see a clearer understanding in the U.S. that the roots of the crisis must be addressed, rather than repeating slogans about an immediate ceasefire while pumping Ukraine with weapons, as Macron proposed. 1/
Lavrov: It’s good that these absolutely reckless and confrontational positions in favor of prolonging the war find no support in the current U.S. administration.
Which seeks to get to the essence of the problem and eliminate the root causes. 2/
Lavrov: As for reports that the UK, France, and Germany want to develop collective security guarantees — we support such guarantees if they are truly reliable.
A good example is the Ukrainian initiative in Istanbul in April 2022. 3/