Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 22 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Trump demands Ukraine give up land in exchange for an uncertain peace.

This raises doubts about US’s reliability as a security partner in Asia -  C. Raja Mohan for FP.

Rewarding Russia’s territorial expansion could embolden China, especially in Taiwan and maritime disputes.
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Trump seeks to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing but risks weakening Asian alliances.

India faces tension as the U.S. targets Russian oil imports but spares China, offering little strategic relief.

2/
Trump’s policy weakens Asia’s security, as many countries depend on vulnerable bilateral ties.

His underestimation of China and overconfidence in U.S. influence leave allies at risk.

3/
Trump’s “America First” strategy prioritizes economic nationalism over security interests.

This signals a future where Asian allies may face greater uncertainty regarding U.S. commitments.

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 22
Bolton: People discuss an Article 5-like guarantee for Ukraine since NATO is ruled out by Russia and Trump. It says members act as they deem appropriate, very vague. Could mean force, or just a note. If language satisfies Ukraine, question remains: will forces back it up? 1/
Bolton: Merz faces pressure from AFD and Social Democrats. Deploying forces looks warlike, but key is how they fit into the security guarantee. Germany has sent troops to UN missions. Peacekeepers only observe and report, like Rwanda, not fix the situation. 2/
Bolton: Lavrov said security guarantees should involve the 5 permanent UN Security Council members, including Russia and China. Moscow proposed this before in Turkey. Many see it as legitimacy, unlike in the US. Russians may use it as cover for their aims. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 21
Giorgia Meloni proposes a NATO-light guarantee for Ukraine. If Russia attacks again, allies must decide within 24 hours on military and economic aid, reports Bloomberg.

Modeled on NATO’s Article 5, but without membership, using Italy’s 2024 security pact with Kyiv as blueprint.

1/Image
At the Aug 18 White House meeting, Trump, Zelensky, and EU leaders agreed on firmer guarantees.

Trump ruled out U.S. troops but suggested air support. France and the UK are weighing troop deployments as part of wider security guarantees.

2/
Italian Defense Min. Crosetto: NATO would be a “superior deterrent,” but individual nations could commit if NATO won’t.

Meloni first pitched NATO-style guarantees in March 2025. She now positions herself as bridge between Trump and Europe.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 21
Politico: Trump has a bill ready that could force Putin back to the negotiation table.

Imposing secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners if Putin doesn't meet with Zelenskyy by Sept. 15.

The bill has 84 sponsors and could pressure Russia’s wartime economy.

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The bipartisan bill, which has been in the works for months, sanctions Russia's trading partners.

If Putin delays or refuses to meet Zelenskyy, the bill would force Trump to act and apply further pressure.

2/
Putin doesn’t want a deal, but sanctions pressure could force negotiations.

Trump can use the bill to avoid being seen as “played” by Putin and ensure consequences for inaction.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 21
European nations urge Trump to send US F-35 fighter jets to Romania as part of a security guarantee for Ukraine — The Times.

The planes would deploy to Mihail Kogalniceanu airbase, being expanded to become NATO’s largest in Europe. 1/ Image
Following Trump’s refusal to send US troops to Ukraine but openness to “air” support, European leaders requested jets in Romania to deter Russia.

Gen. Dan Caine met UK, German, French, Finnish, and Italian military chiefs in Washington to discuss US aid specifics. 2/
Europe seeks US help with satellites for GPS and reconnaissance and continued supply of Patriot and Nasams missiles to Ukraine.

The UK has pledged Typhoon jets to western Ukraine and a 3,000–5,000-strong brigade for training. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 21
Hodges: Trump shows none of the leadership attributes expected, takes no responsibility, always brags “I did this, I did that.” Around cagey old political leaders, it only makes him look weaker. European leaders should not be intimidated by him. 1/
Hodges: Trump has a reputation of backing down, so talk of security guarantees lacks weight. Few believed him when he said Putin wants peace. Putin wants peace, but only on his terms. Zelenskyy and European leaders know the situation in Ukraine isn’t as bad as portrayed. 2/
Hodges: Trump thinks talks alone can solve this, as if it were a simple deal, not cultural and historical issues. His approach was doomed since he won’t acknowledge that Russia is the aggressor. History shows even the “no cards” side can win. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 21
Lavrov: We see a clearer understanding in the U.S. that the roots of the crisis must be addressed, rather than repeating slogans about an immediate ceasefire while pumping Ukraine with weapons, as Macron proposed. 1/
Lavrov: It’s good that these absolutely reckless and confrontational positions in favor of prolonging the war find no support in the current U.S. administration.

Which seeks to get to the essence of the problem and eliminate the root causes. 2/
Lavrov: As for reports that the UK, France, and Germany want to develop collective security guarantees — we support such guarantees if they are truly reliable.

A good example is the Ukrainian initiative in Istanbul in April 2022. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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