Crémieux Profile picture
Aug 24 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Inclusionary zoning is a good policy if you want housing to be more expensive and less common.

The literature on this has tended to point in one direction: inclusionary zoning is a bad idea.Image
Every developer I've spoken to who has had to deal with it just tries to avoid falling into inclusionary zoning thresholds whenever they can.

The most common way they do that is by building fewer units to avoid a unit number threshold after which you have to build 'affordable'.
As always with this topic, the best thing to do is just to build more.

Source: mercatus.org/research/polic…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Aug 26
Gerrymandering is the death of centrism in America.

The more districts are uncompetitive, the less hope there is for moderate candidates, and the less value there is in moving to the center.

Gerrymandering means a more divisive and polarized America, with poorer governance🧵 Image
A recent paper in the American Economic Review made the value of competitive elections clear using data from America and France.

Looking at American elections, when candidates are in their primaries, they're more radical. When they compete with the other party, they moderate. Image
The same thing is observed in France, where the multi-round elections come with extensive moderation for some, slight moderation for others, and essentially no moderation for those who are already at the nation's center. Image
Read 24 tweets
Aug 25
The World Health Organization frequently adopts irresponsible positions.

For example, they recommended against using non-sugar sweeteners (NSS)—zero-calorie stuff like aspartame.

Why?

Because of non-causal evidence. But all the causally-informative evidence said it was good! Image
On the one hand, you have causal evidence screaming about one direction of effects that are theoretically expected. Among this evidence, there's one bad sign, but it's marginally significant (p = 0.012) among a bajillion effects examined.

AND THEY GOT THE EFFECT SIZE WRONG.Image
See that highlighted 95% CI? It looks really precise, no?

If you go to the actual study, you'll see it's about switching from sugary to sugar-free hot cocoa, and the effect they report is actually 0.

Where did they get that estimate?! They don't say, but it went in their meta! Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 25
I'm going to speculate about why von Neumann was omitted from Oppenheimer. Thread🧵

"With the Russians it is not a question of whether but of when."

"If you say why not bomb them tomorrow, I say why not today? If you say today at 5 o'clock, I say why not one o'clock?" Image
Before the Senate, when asked about his ideology:

"I am violently anti-Communist and much more militaristic than the norm." Image
When he was told that Oppenheimer said Manhattan Project scientists had "known sin" for their work on the atomic bomb, he replied:

"Sometimes someone confesses a sin in order to take credit for it." Image
Read 20 tweets
Aug 25
The White House just issued an executive order to end cashless bail.

Over the last decade or so, many jurisdictions have adopted a policy where criminal offenders can walk free without having to pay bail.

They then routinely go on to commit more crime. This targets that🧵 Image
Briefly, the way bail works in the U.S. is that the court allows a pretrial defendant—someone accused of a crime—to leave jail before their trial date if they can put up cash which they'll earn back if they appear for court. Image
This system works reasonably well for keeping jails reasonably uncrowded and ensuring that people show up for trial.

Critics allege that this system is unfair, however, because many defendants cannot make bail. They don't have the financial means, so they're kept in detention. Image
Read 18 tweets
Aug 25
It's true.

Semaglutide works worse than Tirzepatide and Retatrutide, and it has much worse side effects. Image
When you compare Tirzepatide and Semaglutide head-to-head on side effects, it's just no contest, and we know exactly why this is.

It should be noted that Retatrutide has a side effect profile like Tirzepatide's. It too manages to beat Semaglutide.

Image
There is a drug that's now being tested as an addition to Semaglutide, and that'd be Cagrilintide.

Cagrilintide is a synthetic version of amylin, and it does seem to have glucose-regulating as a well as weight loss-inducing effects.

So, how does CagriSema compare?Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 24
Newsom just signed a new plan for California's Congressional districts.

It's an aggressive gerrymander intended to exactly counter Texas' redistricting.

But I don't think this is wise. Go check the next picture. Image
Presumably if California does this, they will galvanize the Republican states that weren't already on board with aggressive gerrymandering.

So be it, I guess. If he does this, he'll turn Congress even more one-sidedly Republican.

And there's more! Image
With just states that have announced redistricting, we'll probably see:

+5 R (Texas)
+4 R (Florida)
+2 R (Ohio)
+1 R (Indiana)
+ 1 R (Missouri)
+ 5 D (California)

Without Illinois, Oregon, and Delaware, Republicans gain +8 seats (vs. current: 219 R, 212 D, 4 vacant).
Read 14 tweets

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