Shaun Pinner Profile picture
Aug 24 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/7 The reality is simple, Russia has failed:

Russia will not stop this war until it accepts it’s losing. I’d argue Putin already is, and for some time, but he won’t admit it. Until pressure is applied, Ukraine will need to keep pushing drones deep into Russia, hitting strategic targets and crippling the war machine:

Russia’s major losses (2022–2025)
•❌ Over 1 million casualties (killed & wounded combined).
•❌ 55% of territory lost from what was initially captured in 2022.
•❌ 1/3 of Russia’s tactical bomber fleet destroyed.
•❌ Black Sea dominance broken, fleet ships sunk, Sevastopol and Crimea unsafe.
•❌ 13.5% of oil refining capacity knocked out by Ukrainian drones (≈44M tons/year offline).
•❌ Economy strained — sanctions, export revenue collapse, ruble instability.
•❌ Elite units attrited — VDV, Marines, Wagner remnants all heavily degraded.
•❌ International isolation — reliant on Iran, North Korea, and China’s limited support.Image
2/7 Failed, Failed & Failed:

In more than over 3 years fighting, Putin has FAILED to achieve a single principle objective of its invasion and is in a considerably worse situation now, than prior to February 2022:

•❌ Topple Kyiv & Zelensky
•❌ Seize all of Donetsk & Luhansk
•❌ Cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea
•❌ Stop NATO expansion
•❌ Weaken the West’s resolveImage
3/7 Why Putin can’t end the war:

Putin can’t end the war because his entire survival depends on it. If he admits defeat, he exposes himself to internal collapse, facing humiliation, elite betrayal, and the very real risk of a palace coup. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has no off-ramp for him: he either “wins,” or he falls.Image
4/7 Trump’s so-called “peace plan”:

It isn’t peace, it’s stalling. He brags about ending the war in 24 hours, but what he’s really done is hand Putin time to regroup, rearm, and keep striking Ukraine.

No new sanctions.
No pressure on Moscow.
No accountability for war crimes or deported children.

Just endless empty talk.Image
5/7 Trump has emboldened Putin and given legitimacy to his war crimes:

Since his inauguration, rocket attacks across Ukraine have increased. Stalling has consequences. Every week wasted without action means more:

• Rockets on our cities
• Drones on our power stations
• Civilians killed in their homes

The U.S. under Trump is prolonging the war.Image
6/7 Trump’s peace = Putin’s war. (Two more weeks…):

Sanctions work. Weapons work. Unity works. But none of these exist under Trump’s approach. Instead, he parrots Kremlin talking points and stalls decisions that could shorten the war.

No sanctions. No pressure. No accountability. Just stalling, giving Russia time, and the result is more rockets on Ukraine, not fewer.

Peace only comes when Russia loses. Anything else prolongs the killing.

And now, Putin, the genocidal dictator, is being clapped onto U.S. soil.
7/7 Trump isn’t bringing peace, essentially he’s handing Russia a victory:

Every delay, every stalled sanction, every empty promise gives Putin exactly what he needs, time, legitimacy, and space to keep killing.

If this continues, history won’t remember Trump as a peacemaker, but as the man who prolonged the war and helped Russia claim what it could never win on the battlefield.Image
Trump is not just doing what Biden did, he has also stopped support for Ukraine completely. Image

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More from @olddog100ua

Aug 21
1/6 Everything’s Flipped:

Since the Alaska talks, everything has flipped in Russia’s favour. What was once firm red lines are now being erased by Trump’s desperation for a “deal.” It’s not diplomacy, it’s capitulation dressed up for a Nobel prize photo-op. Image
2/6 The ceasefire line went first:

Ukraine pushed for it, Russia flatly rejected it, yet Trump quietly dropped it from discussions. Without a ceasefire, Russia keeps bombing Kharkiv, killing civilians, and advancing at will. Image
3/6 Territory Swap and the Master of Disaster:

Now it’s ceding territory. Trump’s camp floats the idea Ukraine should ‘give up land’ while Russia gives up nothing. That’s legitimising conquest, rewarding genocide with borders, while Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff bumbles names, misplaces locations, and can’t even translate Putin’s demands.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/19/ste…Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 17
1/6 Reuters has published what they say is Putin’s ‘peace’ terms for Ukraine:

– No ceasefire until full agreement
– Ukraine must withdraw from Donetsk & Luhansk
– Russia freezes front lines in Kherson & Zaporizhzhia
– Crimea ‘recognized’ as Russian
– NATO ban for Ukraine
– Partial sanctions relief
– Russian language & church rights imposed

Putin’s so-called peace proposal isn’t peace, it’s surrender dressed up in bullet points. It’s no change from 2014 or 2022. Russia still demands Ukraine hand over land it couldn’t win militarily.
reuters.com/world/china/ou…Image
2/6 Accepting these terms means legitimizing Russia’s invasion.

It rewards genocide, torture, and war crimes by letting Moscow keep stolen territory. No country on Earth should accept that precedent and what’s worse, is the American President is pushing to “make a deal” and providing legitimacy to these acts.Image
3/6 It’s a trap

Look closely: Putin isn’t offering a ceasefire until after Ukraine agrees. Translation: Russia gets time to regroup, rearm, and strike again whenever it chooses. That’s not peace- it’s a trap showing no clear commitment.

It’s not the first time I’ve seen Russia break a treaty, ceasefire or an accord.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 15
1/4 The Ukrainian General Staff has said that the situation on the Pokrovsk front, where a group of Russian troops recently broke through near the town of Dobropillia, is stabilising. Image
2/4 As I’ve said previously, the ground around Pokrovsk is extremely difficult terrain, especially if you are an aggressor army. Rather like East Anglia, it’s flat with heavy agricultural, ploughed fields and crops with thin tree lines and little cover.
3/4 Russian “motorbike breakthrough” near Pokrovsk is turning into a disaster. 🇷🇺 sources admit their troops are cut off & without supplies. Flanks unprotected, units isolated, POWs taken. Ukraine has sent Azov & reinforcements, what began as a push is fast becoming a trap. Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 12
1/6 Russia’s Maximalist Dream vs. Reality

Putin can’t win militarily. Russia’s economy is flatlining. Yet Trump’s Alaska meeting may hand the Kremlin a political victory it couldn’t earn on the battlefield. Here’s how Russia’s “maximum ambition” is shrinking and why that’s dangerous.Image
2/6 Military Stalemate

Putin’s maximum ambition in Ukraine was never just about Donbas. It was the destruction of Ukrainian sovereignty and locking in a puppet state. But 2½ years later, he’s stuck. No decisive breakthrough. No path to Kyiv. The Kremlin’s dream is collapsing under its own weight.

Even with mass mobilisation, Russia can’t take Ukraine militarily. Attritional advances cost thousands of lives for metres gained. Equipment losses are unsustainable. The idea of conquering all of Ukraine is dead, they can barely hold what they’ve stolen.Image
3/6 The Economic Time Bomb

Russia’s economy is flatlining. Recent figures show oil & gas revenues tanking, foreign reserves haemorrhaging, and the Kremlin budget far more precarious than they admit. War spending keeps the lights on short-term, but long-term it’s eating their future alive.
kyivindependent.com/russian-econom…Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 11
1/7 Inviting Vladimir Putin to Alaska

Accused of multiple crimes against humanity, being invited to the US doesn’t just insult Ukraine. It undermines the rules-based international order, gives an indicted war criminal legitimacy, and tells other aggressors that might makes right.

Here are six of the worst charges against him, with the legal basis for each.Image
2/7 Forced Deportation of Ukrainian Children

The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin under Articles 8(2)(a)(vii) & 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute for “unlawful deportation and transfer of children” from occupied Ukraine to Russia.

zmina.info/en/news-en/the…Image
3/7 Mass Deportations of Civilians

A UN investigation concluded: “Russia is guilty of committing crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine,” citing Kremlin-directed mass deportations.
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 11
1⃣/6 What we actually know.

Yes, it’s happening. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, August 15, 2025.

bbc.com/news/articles/…Image
2/6 Confusion & Scrutiny

The intent is to discuss a ceasefire and potential peace deal in the Russia–Ukraine war. It would be the first face‑to‑face Trump–Putin summit in the U.S. since 1988. As it unfolded, it’s coming under much scrutiny, why?
theguardian.com/world/2025/aug…Image
3/6 Putin’s International Arrest Warrant

Location matters, Alaska was chosen due to its historical ties to Russia but mainly because it lies outside the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant for Putin.
mezha.net/eng/bukvy/icc-…
Read 7 tweets

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