Thread by @joni_askola

1/9 Ukraine is winning. russia is losing.

Not in slogans, but in strategic reality. russia has failed to achieve its war goals.

Ukraine is holding firm, innovating, and rallying global support 👇

2/9 russia’s strategic failures:

• Failed to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia
• Lost Kherson
• 0/23 regional capitals taken
• Finland & Sweden joined NATO
• Black Sea Fleet crippled
• Less land under control now than in 2022
• Wagner mutiny
• No path to victory
Map: ISW

3/9 Ukraine’s resilience:

• Maintained sovereignty—now more sovereign than ever
• More militarized than ever
• Liberated key territories
• Mastered drone warfare & naval strikes
• Integrated Western tech
• United the West behind its cause

4/9 russia’s goals remain unchanged:

•Subjugate Ukraine
•Halt NATO expansion
•Reassert imperial dominance

But it has achieved none.

Now it’s isolated, weakened, and increasingly dependent on china

5/9 Why the war is unsustainable for russia:

• Lack of labor, low growth, high inflation, and war economy dependency
• Hundreds of thousands have fled
• Military spending draining reserves
• Bad demographic outlook
• Long-term decline accelerating

6/9 Europe must stop waiting for Trump & Putin.

Trump’s diplomacy gave russia optics, not peace.

Putin still refuses to meet Zelensky.
Delay only helps the aggressor. Europe must lead

7/9 russia wants to prolong the war.
It believes time is on its side.

But delay only increases the cost—for Ukraine, Europe, and global stability.

The longer the war, the harder the recovery

8/9 How to end the war faster:

•More aid to Ukraine: weapons, training, tech, financial aid
•Tougher sanctions on russia

Pressure works. Hesitation helps the invader

9/9 Ukraine fights for freedom. russia fights for empire.

The war ends when russia is forced to stop.
Europe must act—not wait.

Support Ukraine. Sanction russia. End the war