Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 25 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
1/9 Ukraine is winning. russia is losing.

Not in slogans, but in strategic reality. russia has failed to achieve its war goals.

Ukraine is holding firm, innovating, and rallying global support 👇 Image
2/9 russia’s strategic failures:

• Failed to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia
• Lost Kherson
• 0/23 regional capitals taken
• Finland & Sweden joined NATO
• Black Sea Fleet crippled
• Less land under control now than in 2022
• Wagner mutiny
• No path to victory
Map: ISW Image
3/9 Ukraine’s resilience:

• Maintained sovereignty—now more sovereign than ever
• More militarized than ever
• Liberated key territories
• Mastered drone warfare & naval strikes
• Integrated Western tech
• United the West behind its cause Image
4/9 russia’s goals remain unchanged:

•Subjugate Ukraine
•Halt NATO expansion
•Reassert imperial dominance

But it has achieved none.

Now it’s isolated, weakened, and increasingly dependent on china Image
5/9 Why the war is unsustainable for russia:

• Lack of labor, low growth, high inflation, and war economy dependency
• Hundreds of thousands have fled
• Military spending draining reserves
• Bad demographic outlook
• Long-term decline accelerating Image
6/9 Europe must stop waiting for Trump & Putin.

Trump’s diplomacy gave russia optics, not peace.

Putin still refuses to meet Zelensky.
Delay only helps the aggressor. Europe must lead Image
7/9 russia wants to prolong the war.
It believes time is on its side.

But delay only increases the cost—for Ukraine, Europe, and global stability.

The longer the war, the harder the recovery Image
8/9 How to end the war faster:

•More aid to Ukraine: weapons, training, tech, financial aid
•Tougher sanctions on russia

Pressure works. Hesitation helps the invader Image
9/9 Ukraine fights for freedom. russia fights for empire.

The war ends when russia is forced to stop.
Europe must act—not wait.

Support Ukraine. Sanction russia. End the war Image

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More from @joni_askola

Aug 25
1/5 Norway has stepped up—and that’s great.

But as the only European country economically profiting from russia’s war on Ukraine, it should also be the top donor relative to its GDP.

If you benefit from the war, you should do your best to help end it. Let’s break it down 👇 Image
2/5 Norway was rightly criticized early on for doing too little.

But to its credit, it’s increased aid to Ukraine, including recently. That’s progress.

But given its war profits, Norway’s support should be leading, not just improving Image
3/5 When Europe scrambled to replace russian energy, Norway stepped in—and rightly so.

But let’s be clear: it didn’t just help, it profited massively. Billions in extra revenue.

That’s why Norway should be Europe’s top donor per GDP. It gained the mostImage
Read 5 tweets
Aug 25
1/4 Let me introduce you to a Finnish concept: torjuntavoitto.

It means a "defensive victory"—you didn’t win outright, but you stopped the enemy from achieving their goals.

Finland coined it after WWII. Let’s talk about why it matters today 👇Image
2/4 Torjuntavoitto applies partly to Ukraine.

russia invaded to conquer, install a puppet regime, and erase Ukraine’s sovereignty. That failed. Ukraine defended its statehood. That’s a defensive victory.

But here’s the twist… Image
3/4 Ukraine isn’t just defending—it’s winning. russia won’t get to dictate peace. Ukraine won’t officially lose.

And it’s russia, not Ukraine, that will pay reparations.

Torjuntavoitto doesn’t fully apply—because Ukraine’s outcome is even stronger Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 24
1/6 Let’s get one thing straight: Biden, Blinken, and Sullivan were far from perfect on Ukraine.

But if you support Trump, you don’t get to criticize them.

Why? Because Trump’s record on Ukraine is not just weak—it’s pro-russia Image
2/6 Biden’s team gave nearly $70 billion in military aid to Ukraine. They sanctioned russia.

They made it clear: russia is the aggressor. Ukraine is the victim.

That’s the bare minimum—but Trump didn’t even do that Image
3/6 Trump gave $0 in military aid. No new sanctions. He refuses to blame russia for the invasion.

Instead, he blames Ukraine, pressures Ukraine, and calls Putin his “friend.”

That’s not even neutrality. That’s siding with the invader Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 24
1/5 Putin’s russia and Hitler’s Germany—more alike than you think.

Putin invaded Ukraine claiming to “protect russians”—just like Hitler claimed to protect ethnic Germans in Poland and Czechoslovakia.

Same playbook: invent a threat, justify aggression Image
2/5 Both regimes built their ideology around imperial revival.

Hitler wanted a Greater Germany.
Putin wants a Greater russia.

Both deny the legitimacy of neighboring states and cultures—Ukraine’s existence, like Poland’s before WWII, is treated as a mistake to be corrected Image
3/5 The aesthetics echo too.

Mass rallies, militarized youth, choreographed propaganda, and cults of personality.

Putin’s staged events and war parades mirror the spectacle of nazi Germany—designed to project strength and suppress dissent Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 23
1/4 Putin wants you to forget this anniversary. You shouldn’t.

In 1939, the Soviet Union signed a pact with nazi Germany. Yes—it sided with Hitler.

They didn’t just agree to peace. They agreed to carve up Europe Image
2/4 The pact included a secret protocol: Eastern Europe was split into nazi and Soviet zones.

The USSR invaded Poland, annexed the Baltics, and began mass deportations.

Millions suffered under this deal. It wasn’t neutrality—it was collusion Image
3/4 Today, russia tries to rewrite this history.

They blame Poland, praise the pact, and deny the Soviet role in starting WWII.

But facts don’t bend to propaganda. Stalin helped launch the war—and Moscow wants you to forget it Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22
1/8 The F-35 vs Rafale debate keeps resurfacing—but let’s be clear: the F-35 is in a different league.

Rafale fans need to chill. Europe has no one to blame but itself for not developing a 5th-gen jet.

The Rafale is good—but it’s not the future Image
2/8 The Rafale is a very capable but costly 4th-gen fighter.

It’s not stealthy—and Dassault knows that it’s a problem. That’s why their next jet will be stealthy. If stealth didn’t matter, they wouldn’t bother.

The F-35 is built for the next era. Rafale is built for the last Image
3/8 The Rafale is better than russia’s best jets—but it’s not in a different league. The F-35 is.

Countries like Finland and Poland, bordering russia, don’t have the luxury to choose “Buy European” over a massive battlefield advantage Image
Read 8 tweets

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