Dave Jones Profile picture
Aug 26 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️

x33 rise in Algeria🇩🇿 solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths.
x8 in Zambia🇿🇲
x7 in Botswana🇧🇼
x6 in Sudan🇸🇩
x3 in each of Liberia🇱🇷, DRC🇨🇩, Benin🇧🇯, Angola🇦🇴, Ethiopia🇪🇹

🧵 Image
Overall African imports surged 60% in the last 12 months to 15GW.

And it's not driven by South Africa - over the last two years, the imports of solar panels outside of SA have nearly tripled from 4GW to 11GW... Image
Many countries in Africa are now importing solar panels at scale. Image
These solar panels will provide a lot of electricity.

The solar panels imported into Sierra Leone in the last 12 months, if installed, would generate electricity equivalent to 61% of the total reported 2023 electricity generation, significantly adding to electricity supply🤯 Image
Solar panel imports will reduce OVERALL imports - because the value of diesel imports eclipses the value of solar panel impors.

A solar panel in Nigeria now costs just $60, and can repay the cost of diesel for a generator within 6 months - and even less in other countries. Image
This research is based on Chinese customs data, which we convert from $ into MW in our China Solar Export Explorer.

It's good data, but we need MUCH MORE research and analysis to track the rise of solar in Africa.

ember-energy.org/data/chinas-so…
Africa is not the new Pakistan - yet.

However, the first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa is now here.

And in the world of solar, change can happen very quickly💪 Image

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More from @CleanPowerDave

Jun 21
NEW: Cheaper batteries mean near-24/365 solar is now economic☀️

We analysed 18 years of hourly insolation data at 12 places, to see how close to 24/365 electricity it was possible to get.

The sunniest places get over 90% - and up to 99% - of the way... from just $100/MWh. 🧵 Image
We launched it today (on a Saturday!) because today is the Summer Solstice in the northern hemisphere, and you could theoretically generate 24-hour solar in the Arctic tonight without battery!

(tenuous rating: 8/10) Image
Getting to 24-hour solar is easy tho: just add battery!

Getting to 24/365 solar is hard cos of pesky clouds - and batteries aren't economic to store electricity between days.

Fortunately though, even on "cloudy" days, you often still get more solar power than you might think.. Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 8
OUT TODAY: The global electricity transition in graphics... Image
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Read 20 tweets
Mar 12
OUT TODAY: How is the US electricity transition doing?🇺🇸🧵

WIND+SOLAR OVER TOOK COAL: Wind and solar now at 17% of US electricity supply; coal falls to a record low of 15%.

Only 6 years ago in 2018, coal generation was x3 that of wind and solar🤯 Image
Wind and solar generation has now overtaken coal in 24 states💪

Illinois was the latest to join the ranks in 2024, following Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Maryland in 2023. Image
Solar was the star, rising 27%⭐️☀️

Incredibly, 32% of California's annual electricity supply and 30% of Nevada was from solar. That's higher than any country in the world!

Yet 28 states generated less than 5% of their electricity from solar in 2024🌖 Image
Read 20 tweets
Dec 18, 2024
🚨🚨WAKE UP CALL 🚨🚨

Soaring electricity demand means global coal demand **may** no longer fall in the coming 3yrs.

This is a big change in prognosis from just 12 months ago.. 🧵 Image
The revisions for global coal demand have increased quite sizably.. Image
Coal demand is VERY sensitive to electricity demand.

A rise of **just 1.2pp** in global electricity demand in the IEA in the next 3-yr period led to a **3.4pp** rise in total coal demand.

(Makes sense - coal is 1/3 of elec demand; RES+nuclear+gas forecast is unchanged) Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 30, 2024
This graphic is going viral.

This is how it was calculated... let's get geeky🤓... Image
It's based on this table in today's IEA report.

Solar is x100 coal because...
- SOLAR: 2GW x 17% utilisation x 40 years = 120TWh
- COAL: 150kt x 8MWh/t = 1.2TWh (note this *energy* content of coal; you'd need x300 as many ships for the same *electricity* content as a ship of solar panels)

Notes on solar:
- The "40 years" and "17% utilisation" is what i've used to backcalculate their x100 calculation and show they are reasonable calculations.
- A container ship is assumed as 15000TEU, far short of the largest container ship at 25000TEU.
- 2GW across 15,000TEU means there's 133KW of solar panels in a container. Useful to know:)

iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/48d2ba3…Image
Interestingly, battery takes up even less room...

If container ship has 2GW, then for 4 hours of storage, you need 8GWh of battery - which is less than a third of a container ship... Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 16, 2024
The IEA's #1 flagship report, and the bible of the energy transition.

So, what's new? My key takeaways...
We are firmly in the Age of Electricity💪 Image
Electricity demand has been revised up.

Previously, it was 2.7%/year to 2030 (the same as for 2010-2023), now it's 3.3%/year.

And demand growth is coming from EVERYWHERE - yes data centres + a/c, but also EV's+heat pumps, and industry is actually the biggest slice... Image
Read 13 tweets

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