NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️
x33 rise in Algeria🇩🇿 solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths.
x8 in Zambia🇿🇲
x7 in Botswana🇧🇼
x6 in Sudan🇸🇩
x3 in each of Liberia🇱🇷, DRC🇨🇩, Benin🇧🇯, Angola🇦🇴, Ethiopia🇪🇹
🧵
Overall African imports surged 60% in the last 12 months to 15GW.
And it's not driven by South Africa - over the last two years, the imports of solar panels outside of SA have nearly tripled from 4GW to 11GW...
Many countries in Africa are now importing solar panels at scale.
These solar panels will provide a lot of electricity.
The solar panels imported into Sierra Leone in the last 12 months, if installed, would generate electricity equivalent to 61% of the total reported 2023 electricity generation, significantly adding to electricity supply🤯
Solar panel imports will reduce OVERALL imports - because the value of diesel imports eclipses the value of solar panel impors.
A solar panel in Nigeria now costs just $60, and can repay the cost of diesel for a generator within 6 months - and even less in other countries.
This research is based on Chinese customs data, which we convert from $ into MW in our China Solar Export Explorer.
It's good data, but we need MUCH MORE research and analysis to track the rise of solar in Africa.
NEW: Cheaper batteries mean near-24/365 solar is now economic☀️
We analysed 18 years of hourly insolation data at 12 places, to see how close to 24/365 electricity it was possible to get.
The sunniest places get over 90% - and up to 99% - of the way... from just $100/MWh. 🧵
We launched it today (on a Saturday!) because today is the Summer Solstice in the northern hemisphere, and you could theoretically generate 24-hour solar in the Arctic tonight without battery!
(tenuous rating: 8/10)
Getting to 24-hour solar is easy tho: just add battery!
Getting to 24/365 solar is hard cos of pesky clouds - and batteries aren't economic to store electricity between days.
Fortunately though, even on "cloudy" days, you often still get more solar power than you might think..
This is how it was calculated... let's get geeky🤓...
It's based on this table in today's IEA report.
Solar is x100 coal because...
- SOLAR: 2GW x 17% utilisation x 40 years = 120TWh
- COAL: 150kt x 8MWh/t = 1.2TWh (note this *energy* content of coal; you'd need x300 as many ships for the same *electricity* content as a ship of solar panels)
Notes on solar:
- The "40 years" and "17% utilisation" is what i've used to backcalculate their x100 calculation and show they are reasonable calculations.
- A container ship is assumed as 15000TEU, far short of the largest container ship at 25000TEU.
- 2GW across 15,000TEU means there's 133KW of solar panels in a container. Useful to know:)