Thread by @sudokuvariante

If you want to model SARS-COV-2 epidemics, you have to take into account large heterogeneity of the susceptibility, infectiousness and immunity gained after infection.

So, this is the basic simple formalism you want to solve at the macroscopic level.
1/n onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sa…

To have a realistic model, you've to:
➖measure empirically all the compartment structuring variables. ⚠️They're time dependent (seasonal) !
➖Take into account waning immunity (⚠️if you add a "vaccinated" compartment)
2/n

➖SARS-COV-2 is not static, so you've to take the viral evolution into account. ⚠️Viral evolution is not independent of population immunity and it's not independent of vaccination of population !
3/n

Then, you have to take into account structure network of the population. Find a realistic structure of your population and run the heterogeneous model with time dependent compartemental structuring variables you've measured.
4/n

Then, you've to model the changing behaviour of the population. People generally don't like to die, so they want to protect themselves if there is a danger. Accurate information is much more effective than governmental measure requiring people to obey and stop thinking.
5/n

Conclusion:
If you want to model the covid epidemics, you've to know so much crucial variable that it take it's probable the entire epidemics to gain this knowledge.
6/n

Forget the bullshit mass vaccination to reach 1-1/R0 we've been propagandized, based on the 5-years old kid model where everything is homogeneous, virus is static, and people move randomly like particles of a gas.🤦‍♂️
7/n

➡️During pandemic, we spent way too many $ to fund researchers to use wrong models in order to inform politics who take wrong measures based on these very wrong models.
This ideology has to stop.
8/8