Not rocket science but something to look for when it comes to $BTC slowing down on a sell-off and attempting to spot a break in one sided momentum:
1. consecutive days with value shifting lower (little to no over lap) into a few tight sessions sideways.
2. wide days followed by a tighter value area range - observe participation at lows.
ideally trapped sellers can lead to a temporary bounce - if temporary bounce occurs observe buying aggression followed by passive behavior.
i.e. is there follow through on the bounce? is aggression stepping in higher? are dips being cushioned through passive buying gradually shifting higher?
btw a break in the trend could just be a breather for continuation in the same direction but this is the first sign to pay attention to what session value looks like in the succeeding days.
If action starting to slowdown into a key contextual area - pay more attention (additional example below).
> monthly profile - Jan point of control - ~105 unable to reclaim + multiple rejections so far.
> imbalance (untested conviction) between ~97-100.
> to keep it simple, 105 has remained a key area to flip to rotate towards ATH. However, repeated sell pressure + spot asks stacking every time price approaches this area indicating this has remained a premium for participants thus far. i.e. significant aggression required for turnover.
> note previous balance established here with value between 101 and 93. if acceptance back inside this expecting some reflexivity to the downside (this posture is aided by the aggressive positioning on the way up which lends well to unraveling).
TPO
> 10 day composite bracketing value b/w ~104 and 102.6 with breakout vwap providing reactions thus far.
> price currently trading into low side of composite value and discretionary vwap once again.
> on ltf (1 min), looks like perps are attempting to get aggressive while there is continued spot selling pressure currently.
> look for this general area for continued weakness or ltf bounce (need spot follow through for another attempt at rotating higher).
$BTC Spot
> 2.5% spot depth tells the story of 105+ remaining expensive (ask side skew moving to 100+ Ms in stacking when price approaches this area).
> currently slightly skewed towards the bid side - ~70Ms.
TLDR:
> 105 - key pivot for continuation to ATH - continued sell pressure above thus far.
> low to mid 102s aligned with balance value + breakout vwap (trading here currently).
> imbalance under here = potential reflexivity to the down-side with aggressive positioning established on the way up.
> 100 is a major milestone for $BTC so spending a lot of time under this area = sign to remain cautious and be flexible with posture.
tldr - im tired boss. price rugging with haste as I'm typing out the update and having to modify lol