So far, Ukraine’s stabilization measures around Pokrovsk look broadly promising. While many speculated that Kyiv might strike elsewhere, Ukrainian forces have instead pushed back Russian troops in an area where Moscow’s leadership had placed its biggest bet. 🧵Thread:
2/ With only days left before the fall season, the chances of Russia taking Pokrovsk by summer’s end are virtually nil. Amid the so-called “peace talks,” the lack of progress risks undermining Russia’s resolve to fight for “years”, as they like to boast
3/ That does not mean Russia will stop advancing. But if the political goal remains the takeover of Donbas, achieving it by the end of this year appears impossible.
4/ For Ukraine, the main objective now is to avoid a catastrophic breakthrough or an operational-level collapse at Russian hands, something akin to the rout Russia itself suffered in Kharkiv in 2022.
5/ For Russia, by contrast, the challenge is to prove its tactics viable and to show that “just a little more pressure” will cause Ukrainian defenses in Donbas to crumble. For now, however, Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar remain a difficult objective despite maximum efforts.
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