Thread by @hathyogi31

America Has Played Its Last Card – But India Hasn’t Even Started and the Trump administration is slowly beginning to realize something uncomfortable: it has miscalculated.
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Read the entire post to know the latest updates on tarrif war.

By slapping 50% tariffs on Indian goods, Washington believes it has exhausted its strongest hand. But here lies the irony—America may have played its final card, while India hasn’t even opened the game.

Some will argue that the U.S. can still target India’s IT services, electronics, or pharma exports. But let’s be clear, if Washington could have done it, it already would have.

There are no real alternatives to Indian IT services, no substitute for Indian generics that keep healthcare affordable for American middle and lower classes, and no replacement for the electronics ecosystem tied to India’s labor and manufacturing hubs. This is why the so-called “threats” remain empty.

The only extreme step left for the U.S. would be economic sanctions—placing India in the same category as enemy states like Russia. That would be a suicidal escalation, effectively ending decades of strategic partnership. But does Trump want to push ties with the world’s largest democracy to the brink?

Meanwhile, New Delhi has not even begun to retaliate. Prime Minister Modi holds multiple cards in hand. India has yet to touch the sensitive ground of digital taxation, data localization, and Big Tech regulation—moves that could cripple American tech giants operating in India. Nor has India begun counter-leveraging defense deals, energy partnerships, or regional alignments.

And here’s the real twist—while America is cornering itself, India is strengthening its position globally-

▪️Japan has already committed nearly $70 billion of investments over the next decade.

▪️Australia is emphasizing India as a “credible partner” and warning Washington against destabilizing QUAD.

▪️Even within the U.S., the Pentagon is pressing the administration not to push India away, recognizing that losing defense cooperation with India would be catastrophic for America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

The most telling sign, however, comes from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—once known for his harsh anti-India rhetoric—now suddenly softening his tone. Why?

Because Washington is realizing what it should have known all along: India cannot be coerced. Every aggressive step taken so far has yielded no concessions. America has “broken the glass” but gained nothing.

On the other side, India is carefully calibrating. Modi’s upcoming visits to China and Japan highlight a masterstroke of balance. At Beijing, India will stand alongside Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in a show of Global South solidarity.

Yet at Tokyo, Modi will reaffirm trust with Japan, a democratic partner and a reliable investor. This dual track makes India unshakable—deeply tied to both the Global South and the democratic West.

When India finally decides to play its cards—digital restrictions on Big Tech, diversification of defense partnerships, counter-tariffs, or deepened alignment with Russia and China—the U.S. will have no answers left.

Trump may have played his last move. India hasn’t even started.