Gokul Sahni Profile picture
Aug 28 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
“a central fact about the world’s fifth-largest economy: India’s large population of poor farmers hinders its capacity to reach mutually beneficial trade deals.

Agriculture, including dairy, is a major sticking point in U.S.-India trade negotiations.” 1/7
“India has an average tariff of 39% on imported farm goods—among the highest in the world. It protects its large but inefficient dairy industry with both high tariffs and nontariff barriers.” 2/7
“Many countries have influential farm lobbies, but in no other major economy do farmers have as much political clout as they do in India. The World Bank estimates that in 2023, 44% of India’s workforce—or about 267 million people—made a living from agriculture.” 3/7
“Over the past five decades, India has gone from being a country that struggled to feed its people to an agricultural superpower. It’s the world’s largest producer and exporter of rice. It’s the world’s largest producer of milk and pulses such as chickpeas and beans.” 4/7
“For many Indians, agricultural self-sufficiency is a point of pride, Indian agricultural economist Ashok Gulati says in a phone interview. Indians recall being dependent on American food aid as recently as the 1960s.” 5/7
“The average farm in the U.S. is 175 times as large as the average Indian farm of 2.7 acres. The average herd size on an American dairy farm is about 380 cows. The average herd size in India is about four animals, either cows or water buffaloes.” 6/7
“the U.S. ought to consider the complexities of India’s economic environment. A bilateral trade agreement would be good for both countries. But it’s unrealistic to expect Mr. Modi to commit political suicide for a deal with Mr. Trump.” 7/7

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More from @Gokul_Sahni

Aug 29
“In its pursuit of a narrowly framed “trade deal,” the administration has overreached, alienating a key partner. In doing so, it has underestimated both the structural sensitivities of the Indian economy and the strategic implications of overreliance on coercive diplomacy.” 1/14
“This deterioration did not arise from a singular policy failure but rather from a pattern: a belief that India, like Japan and the European Union (EU), would ultimately make major concessions affecting sensitive domestic constituencies under US pressure.” 2/14
“That miscalculation has proven costly. Unlike Tokyo and Brussels, New Delhi proved unwilling to sacrifice core economic interests or domestic political capital for marginal gains.” 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Aug 28
“President Donald Trump has undone 25 years of diplomacy by embracing Pakistan after its conflict with India in May, and now singling out India for even higher tariffs than China.” 1/12
“He cannot have thought through how the world’s most populous country and fifth-largest economy would react.” 2/12
“For America to alienate India is a grave mistake. For India it is a moment of opportunity: a defining test of its claim to be a superpower-in-waiting.” 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Aug 28
“The present pictures of the eight leading economies—GDP, Purchasing Power Parity—would have been unimaginable a generation ago: it includes China, India, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia. Only the US, Germany and Japan represent the ‘West’.” 1/15
“The changing structure of global industrial capabilities is equally stark: in 2000, the West accounted for over 70 per cent; by 2030, it is the non-West that is projected to account for nearly 70 per cent of global production.” 2/15
“The more profound change is not that power shifts are occurring—for the rise and fall of empires and nations is integral to the cycles of world history—but that it is now happening outside the exclusive confines of the Western community of nations.” 3/15
Read 15 tweets
Aug 28
“It wasn’t until June that Modi’s government began making a serious effort to improve relations with China, the person said, asking not to be identified in order to discuss internal matters.” 1/7
“At the time, trade talks with the US were turning contentious and officials in New Delhi were bristling over Trump’s claims of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following four days of fighting in May.” 2/7
“Direct flights between the two are set to resume as early as next month. Beijing has eased curbs on urea shipments to India. And Modi’s government allowed tourist visas for Chinese nationals after years of curbs.” 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Aug 25
.@gideonrachman: “Beijing’s ace is its near monopoly on the production of rare earths and other critical minerals that provide vital inputs to western industry and the US military.” 1/10
“The names of the rare earths remain exotic and little known to the western ear... But, in a full-on trade war, the western public might soon become familiar with names like neodymium and dysprosium.” 2/10
“The effect on the world’s motor industry was dramatic and felt within weeks. Jim Farley.. CEO of Ford, admitted in early June that a shortage of rare earths used in magnets had forced his company to “shut down factories” temporarily. European manufacturers had similar problems.”
Read 10 tweets
Aug 24
“Leaders of the greatest European nations, along with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sitting like contrite, obedient schoolchildren in front of Donald Trump, the imperial headmaster.” 1/12
“Here are the richest, most powerful nations in the world, the third and sixth largest national economies, second largest economic bloc (EU), two nuclear-armed P5 states, all on their knees.” 2/12
“They are reduced to being court jesters before the only leader who matters in the Western alliance, which Putin has been trying to weaken.” 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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