Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 28 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
I will explain to you now what has been happening all August and what happened tonight. Thread.
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Gasoline and diesel are delivered to the south of Russia from the Samara group of refineries (Kuibyshevsky, Novokuibyshevsky and Syzransky refineries) as well as from the Volgograd refinery (delivery line in yellow)
2/
Strikes on the Novokuibyshevsky (August 2), Syzransky (August 15) and Volgogradsky refineries (August 14) were carried out earlier. (black dots on the map)
3/
Today the third refinery of the Saratov group - Kuibyshevsky - was destroyed.

At the same time today they attacked the depot and traction substation Petrov Val (train traffic is stopped)
4/
The south of Russia will be without fuel, 4 refineries that supply it are destroyed, and also today the route on the railway was rerouted in two places !!!!!!!!!!!

Brilliant and powerful !!!!!!!!!!

5/5

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More from @evgen1232007

Aug 24
As a result of the attack, the Gazprom Ust-Luga gas processing complex was hit (the “Gas Processing Complex/GPC” as part of the Baltic Gas Chemical Cluster).
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⬇️⬇️⬇️ Image
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Specifically, the cryogenic gas condensate/gas fractionation unit suffered critical damage. It is the “heart” of the gas processing complex: rectification and separation of components take place here, which are then either exported or used as raw materials for the Baltic Gas
2/
Chemical Complex (ethylene, polymers, etc.).

This is one of the largest gas processing plants in Europe (according to estimates, the Ust-Luga complex will be able to process up to 45 billion m³ of natural gas annually, produce 13 mill tons of LNG, 3.6 million tons of ethane
3/
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22
Izvestia published an excellent article about the fuel crisis in the Russian Far East.
I will provide individual quotes with my comments
Thread
1/
The specified volumes partially went to the center of Russia, and partially went to the gas stations of the refinery owners.
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In the south of Russia, oil depots are empty. All fuel is sold off the wheels. There are no reserves. Fuel has been urgently removed from Siberia, which is why the Far East has gone into deep deficit.
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Read 9 tweets
Aug 14
Thread.

In Russia, the trend of outflow of deposits from banks has begun to accelerate. The rate is currently 500 billion rubles/month.

What dangers does this pose to the financial system?
1. A drop in the level of liquidity in weak banks with subsequent bankruptcy.

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2. A general decline in liquidity of the entire banking system, which will lead to a decline in lending to the economy, and as a consequence, a slowdown in the economy.

2/
3. The growth of cash on hand will lead to an increase in the share of the shadow economy, and as a consequence, a drop in tax revenues to the budget.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 7
Budget disaster in Russia !

Federal budget execution data for 7 months released.
July deficit - 1.186 trillion rubles
January-July deficit - 4.879 trillion rubles
(January-July deficit.24 - 1098 trillion rubles)
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According to the results of 7 months, the deficit is 4.879 trillion rubles
This is more than in the entire history of Russia, and this is a deficit for only 7 months. At this rate, the deficit by the end of the year could be 9-10 trillion rub !
This is 110-120 billion dollars
2/ Image
For 7 months y/y
Budget revenues: +2.8% y/y
Oil and gas revenues: -18.5% y/y
NON-oil and gas revenues +14% y/y
Expenses +20.8% y/y
Deficit: (-4879 vs. -1098 (2024) )
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Read 9 tweets
Aug 7
Thread.
The banking crisis in Russia is gaining momentum.
Earlier, Bloomberg published an article that Russian banks are in a terrible situation due to under-formed loan reserves. This information is confirmed.
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The Ministry of Finance published a report on operations with the National Welfare Fund for July. VEB and VTB received new deposits for 335 billion rubles to improve the liquidity situation.
2/
In just 7 months, the Fund issued 850 billion rubles to banks. This is almost 4 times more than last year. What other confirmation of the terrible situation in these banks is needed?
3/
Read 13 tweets
Aug 5
Thread.
About the catastrophic situation of Russian banks!
Earlier, Bloomberg published an article that the banks are in a terrible situation due to under-formed loan reserves.
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Of course, the Central Bank denied everything, but it's all a lie. It's enough to look at how many subloans the banks received from the National Welfare Fund
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Over 5 months, they were given 511 billion rubles, allegedly for the construction of a new railway (funny, the project is not even ready yet) In reality, these loans were issued to improve the quality of capital, since the banks' loan portfolio is rapidly deteriorating,
3/
Read 8 tweets

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