Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 28 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Russian drones are flying over Germany to surveil U.S. and allied supply routes to Ukraine, NYT says.

Concentrated in Thuringia, Russian UAVs map weapons corridors.

Officials warn Moscow seeks to disrupt aid through future sabotage operations. 1/ Image
Intelligence may aid Kremlin sabotage and support Russian troops in Ukraine. U.S. and German officials discussed plots, leading to May arrests of 3 Ukrainians.

Russian sabotage in Europe has sharply declined in 2025 after peaking in 2024. 2/
Russian attacks in Europe surged 4x in 2022–23 and 3x in 2023–24, but fell to just 4 incidents in early 2025. The drop is linked to tighter European security and Ukraine peace talks.

Gen. Grynkewich credited “robust law enforcement efforts” for curbing sabotage. 3/
U.S. warned Germany of explosive devices planned for cargo planes crossing its territory, leading to arrests. Devices were addressed to Ukraine, though targets remain unclear.

Some surveillance drones were Iranian-made, possibly launched from ships in the Baltic Sea. 4/
Drones may launch from ships, though U.S. officials can’t confirm. Germany is installing anti-drone systems at bases due to high risk.

Drones track weapons makers and shipments through Poland to Ukraine, enabling future Russian sabotage of supply chains. 5X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 30
WSJ: Putin wants to secure full control of Donetsk region through peace talks with Trump rather than battlefield conquest, which could take 4.4 more years.

[He also has failed to take it in 11 years since 2014] 1/ Image
Seizing all 4 southeastern regions would cost Russia 2M killed and wounded troops, UK military intelligence. 2/
Controlling Donetsk would move Russia's front line beyond Ukraine's fortified cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, opening flatter terrain toward the Dnipro River. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Aug 29
Applebaum: The Trump-Putin meeting achieved nothing. No serious negotiations, no Ukrainians involved, no ground discussion.

Russians regained legitimacy — Trump a big TV moment.

No deal, no progress made — just media amplifying Trump’s narrative. 1/
Applebaum: Putin has never said he wants the war to end or recognizes Ukraine’s sovereignty. People repeat Trump administration imaginary futures — wishful thinking.

Ukrainians would like war to be over, but Trump lies all the time. 2/
Applebaum: Americans put no pressure on Russia — militarily or economically. No progress toward peace.

Meeting Putin is fine, but Trump’s approach was misleading, giving the impression of achievement when it was just a PR stunt. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 29
Two-thirds of Americans are pessimistic about a Russia-Ukraine peace deal - Gallup poll. But 52% still want the US to back Ukraine until it reclaims territory, even if war drags on.

And 46% say Washington isn’t doing enough — the highest in 3 years. 1/ Image
By party, 78% of Democrats, 69% of independents, and 57% of Republicans are pessimistic about peace talks. Only 31% of Americans overall are optimistic. 2/
On strategy, 80% of Democrats want the U.S. to keep backing Ukraine until it regains lost land. 69% of Republicans favor ending the war quickly, even if Ukraine concedes territory. Independents are split. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 29
Hodges: It’s inexplicable why Trump won’t pressure Putin or say “get troops out of Ukraine.”

Administration's approach was doomed from start — they don’t care or understand why war began, or why Ukrainians fight. Vance called it “nitpicky detail,” so no real solution comes. 1/
Hodges: I would not count on Trump for intelligence or air support. US will regret not working with allies. Saying “Europe, your problem” is a bad move.

Europe is our biggest trading partner. More Europe acts alone, less US can influence what happens. 2/
Hodges: Russia is in real trouble economically, reports show it can’t keep this going. We must ensure Ukraine can defend itself.

Security guarantee means investing in Ukraine’s defense industry, which is already growing during war. This is where we can do a lot to help. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 29
Flamingo missile’s untested performance and high cost raise doubts about its ability to deliver the strategic impact Ukraine needs.

Yet, Ukraine has shown it can rapidly develop weapons threatening Russia, showcasing remarkable wartime innovation, The Economist. 1/ Image
Ukraine revealed the Flamingo cruise missile with a 3,000 km range and 1+ ton payload. Developed in just 9 months by a team with no prior defense experience, officials say they were initially skeptical but “stunned” on seeing the missile firsthand. 2/
The Flamingo began as a “napkin scribble” in late 2024 after the US denied Zelenskyy’s request for Tomahawks. Inspired by V-1 and Strizh designs, its engine sits above the body.
A similar “FP5” appeared at a UAE show, link to Fire Point unclear. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 29
RKK Energia, Roscosmos’ flagship founded by Sergei Korolev, faces possible closure — Moscow Times.

Crippled by multimillion debts, mismanagement, and sanctions, once world-leading space industry is collapsing, mirroring the broader decline of its tech power. 1/ Image
CEO Maltsev says the legacy of Korolev, Mishin, Glushko, and Semenov has been “squandered.” He admits all major projects missed deadlines and urges an end to “lying to ourselves and others.”

He warns RKK Energia may face closure, unable to function or even pay salaries. 2/
Saving RKK Energia is a “miracle-level task” needing strict discipline. The firm lost 10.5B rubles in a decade, with debt hitting 168.4B by June 30, 2025 — up 25B since January.

Russia’s space crisis worsened after war sanctions drove away nearly all foreign customers. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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