McFaul in Foreign Affairs: Trump mixed talks on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, land swaps and security guarantees into one package and got nowhere.
The only workable order is to: first, secure US–European guarantees for Ukraine, then Zelenskyy and Putin should meet on borders. 1/
The only workable order is to: first, secure US–European guarantees for Ukraine, then Zelenskyy and Putin should meet on borders. 1/
Putin will not end the war without holding Ukrainian territory. Zelenskyy can't cede land without risking removal from office.
The only viable compromise is de facto occupation: Russia keeps what it holds, Ukraine commits to reunify only by peaceful means. 2/
The only viable compromise is de facto occupation: Russia keeps what it holds, Ukraine commits to reunify only by peaceful means. 2/
Zelenskyy can only risk that deal with hard insurance. NATO is blocked.
The substitute is a US–European pact: arm Ukraine to be Europe’s strongest army, pledge collective defense, and base troops and aircraft in Poland and Romania. 3/
The substitute is a US–European pact: arm Ukraine to be Europe’s strongest army, pledge collective defense, and base troops and aircraft in Poland and Romania. 3/
Russia cannot join these talks. Including Moscow would repeat the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, when Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal for worthless promises.
Security must be guaranteed by Washington and Europe alone. 4/
Security must be guaranteed by Washington and Europe alone. 4/
The US founded NATO without Stalin’s approval and admitted West Germany without Khrushchev’s.
Clinton expanded NATO without Yeltsin’s consent. Bush brought in the Baltics despite Putin’s objections. Russia’s approval has never been required. 5/
Clinton expanded NATO without Yeltsin’s consent. Bush brought in the Baltics despite Putin’s objections. Russia’s approval has never been required. 5/
If Zelenskyy gives land first, Putin will restart the war to press for more.
If Ukraine receives credible guarantees first, territorial talks can follow without undermining its survival. The woking order: guarantees before borders. 6X
If Ukraine receives credible guarantees first, territorial talks can follow without undermining its survival. The woking order: guarantees before borders. 6X
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