Thread by @hathyogi31

A New Axis Emerges: How Trump’s Tariff War is Reshaping Global Alignments. A new Troika is loading.
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Read the entire post to know about this new troika griup

When President Donald Trump initiated his tariff war, he was well aware of its looming economic consequences. What he may not have anticipated, however, were the far-reaching geopolitical ripple effects it would unleash. Today, those consequences are taking shape in ways that few in Washington could have foreseen.

Initially, Trump’s aggressive tariff policies drove Russia, India, and China closer together, consolidating their alignment against U.S. trade hegemony. But now, a second and perhaps more surprising axis is forming: India, Japan, and Australia—the three non-U.S. members of the Quad. What was once a U.S.-led security grouping designed to balance China in the Indo-Pacific is now showing cracks, with its members turning to each other in defiance of Trump’s transactional diplomacy.

The Signals of a Shift

Evidence of this shift has been mounting. Australia’s Trade Minister, Don Farrell, recently condemned Trump’s tariff approach, dismissing his “dead economy” rhetoric about India and announcing Canberra’s intent to deepen trade ties with New Delhi. He went further, emphasizing cooperation in rare-earth supply chains and signaling increased Australian investments in India.

Japan, meanwhile, has made its displeasure equally clear. Prime Minister Modi’s current visit to Tokyo has been framed around bilateral cooperation, investments, and Indo-Pacific stability—without a single mention of the Quad. Notably, Japan’s trade envoy cancelled his scheduled trip to Washington, and Tokyo declared it would double its investment target in India to $68 billion. The message was unambiguous: Japan will not be dictated to by Washington’s tariff games.

Even more telling, both Australia and Japan backed India when New Delhi suspended postal services to the United States, halting parcel shipments as a countermeasure. This coordinated move reflected a growing unity among the three nations against Washington’s economic coercion.

Why a New Troika is Emerging

At the heart of this realignment is Trump’s unpredictability. His tariff measures have targeted not just India, but also Japan and Australia—traditional allies who once relied on U.S. stability in global trade. That reliance is now in question.

For India, Japan, and Australia, shared regional concerns in the Indo-Pacific provide the glue for this emerging partnership. All three are active players in the region, with existing trade agreements and defense cooperation frameworks already in place. Strengthening economic links and supply chain resilience is a natural progression, now accelerated by America’s unreliability.

The Future of the Quad

The implications for the Quad grouping are profound. Established in 2017 with the explicit aim of counterbalancing China, the Quad once enjoyed strong U.S. backing. But Trump’s recent approach—vacillating on China, pressuring allies with tariffs, and prioritizing short-term economic deals—has eroded trust.

Already, Prime Minister Modi’s Japan visit underscored a pivot: talk of an “Asian Century,” critical minerals cooperation, and shared democratic values, but silence on Quad solidarity. Similarly, Trump himself has shown little interest in attending Quad summits, undermining the forum’s credibility.

If this trajectory continues, the Quad risks becoming little more than a symbolic forum—a name without substance. Its original mission of countering China could collapse, leaving Beijing relieved and emboldened. After all, the South China Morning Post predicted weeks ago that the Quad’s future looked uncertain. Today, that prediction is fast becoming reality.

The Road Ahead

India, Japan, and Australia are not abandoning the Indo-Pacific vision. Instead, they are recalibrating—seeking to secure their own strategic and economic future without being hostage to Washington’s erratic policies. This new troika is not about military confrontation but about economic cooperation, critical supply chains, and regional stability.

For Trump, the irony is striking. His tariff war, designed to strengthen America’s economic position, is instead isolating Washington and driving its closest allies toward each other. The more he pushes with tariffs, the more the world learns to trade, invest, and strategize without the United States.

And for China, watching from the sidelines, this is nothing short of a diplomatic windfall.