Another way of organizing my thoughts on UBI research.
Poverty can be straightforwardly ameliorated with cash grants.
Poverty is also associated with a lot of bad outcomes and people sometimes refer to that whole bundle as “poverty” but instead let’s call it “shmoverty.”
In the global context, research indicates that reducing poverty with cash grants also makes a lot of progress against shmoverty.
The domestic evidence on shmoverty impacts looks much weaker.
Since shmoverty is bad, it’s worth thinking about programs in part in terms of their impact on shmoverty.
I think the best evidence is that cash is no worse on this score than certain cash-like benefit programs so there is an efficiency case for switching them to cash.
People debate the value of Medicaid, but I think the best read of the evidence is that it’s pretty effective at fighting some key aspects of shmoverty which probably makes it worth prioritizing as a cause.
You *could* make really hard humanities classes to weed out the weakest students, but schools in practice don’t do that so it actually is the case that science majors are smarter and harder working.
The hardest class I took as an undergrad was a philosophy of math (Gödel, Tarski, etc) class that was cross-listed with the computer science and math departments and it was clearly *not* the hardest class that those kids took.
I also dipped into some history classes as electives, and those were definitely easier than the philosophy classes.
Again, not because history is *inherently* easy — the professors just didn't assign that much work and didn't grade it as harshly. These things are choices.
“Israeli military never found proof that the Palestinian militant group had systematically stolen aid from the United Nations … according to two senior Israeli military officials and two other Israelis involved in the matter.” nytimes.com/2025/07/26/wor…
On some level, I’m not even sure how central this “stealing” question is.
Israel set out to dislodge Hamas as governing authority in the Strip with good reason. They have been largely successful. They are now responsible for governance and they’re not doing it.
The Biden administration throughout its duration urged Israel to embrace some kind of postwar governance solution involving the PA, the Arab states, and talks about a two-state solution.
You see in every service that a huge share of the population is absolutely fed up with the status quo, hates the establishment wants to see major changes to our political and economic system, and has a deep yearning for politicians who'll "get things done" and deliver change.
At the same time, *in practice* if you look at hyper-constrained elected officials like Phil Scott in Vermont or Andy Beshear in Kentucky — guys facing massive opposition party legislative majorities that make action borderline impossible — voters love those guys.
The point of @arindube's state-based minimum wage proposal is that higher income states can sustain a higher minimum wage than lower income ones — a reasonable idea that raises a question about geographic variation in very large states.
@arindube Shasta County, CA where the ballot initiative did very poorly is not particularly close to the state's main population centers nor is its economy tightly integrated with them.
The perception that it's impossible to shrink federal spending is wrong.
In the 1990s, we had balanced deficit reduction with spending cuts and revenue increases first with GHWB and then with Clinton.
Obama proposed doing it again and Boehner said no.
Trump/Musk/DOGE came in and *did not even attempt to craft legislation about government spending* which of course turns out to be a major flaw in a push for spending cuts!
Since Papa Bush, Republicans have consistently chosen to make low taxes on rich people *the* thing that they spend political capital on — refusing bipartisan budget deals or suggestions from their own populist wing that they focus on something else.
I didn't express myself super-clearly here so let's just talk about another case — the Trump Trade War of 2025.
Because Trump has instigated this and because congressional Republicans are enabling it, there are absolutely right-wing media figures doing apologetics for it. 🧵
At the same time, if you get your news and information from highbrow right-of-center pundits and columnists — Wall Street Journal editorial page, National Review, The Free Press, etc — you'll see tons of Trump-friendly content in general and *tons* of criticism of tariffs.
What's happening, broadly speaking, is that conservative pundits cannot actually steer White House policy and they *certainly* cannot induce backbench House Republicans to buck Trump on this.
The mediasphere is responding to political reality that is beyond its control.