How will Russia's war in Ukraine end?
Both nations are very tired now, the Ukrainians more so, but Ukraine knows this is an existential war, it is not for Russia, only for Putin himself.
Ukraine spend 50% of GDP on the war, Russia only 7% & they complain. It tells you all. /1
Both nations are very tired now, the Ukrainians more so, but Ukraine knows this is an existential war, it is not for Russia, only for Putin himself.
Ukraine spend 50% of GDP on the war, Russia only 7% & they complain. It tells you all. /1
After World War II, no imperial power has won a serious, prolonged imperial war. Russia won in Chechnya, which is not big, leading Putin to the wrong conclusion. Ukraine is too big & united to be defeated by a mindless colonial power, which Putin can't understand. /2
We are all caught in historical precedents.
Putin clearly thinks Chechnya, but it had 1.5 million inhabitants, while Ukraine had 40 million when the war started.
My precedent is Germany in 1918: Its revolution stopped a mindless war, while German troops stood abroad. /3
Putin clearly thinks Chechnya, but it had 1.5 million inhabitants, while Ukraine had 40 million when the war started.
My precedent is Germany in 1918: Its revolution stopped a mindless war, while German troops stood abroad. /3
The German 1918 precedent is that the Russians must feel the war at home. Ukraine does that right now, bombing oil refineries & airports.
Ordinary Russians must feel that the war costs them a lot. The West has failed to do so, but the Ukrainians are getting there. /4
Ordinary Russians must feel that the war costs them a lot. The West has failed to do so, but the Ukrainians are getting there. /4
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