Thread by @joni_askola

1/8 Why is Putin just buying time instead of seeking peace?

Simple: russia is losing.

Any peace deal now would lock in failure.

russia hasn’t reached its goals—and is further from them than in March 2022

2/8 russia wanted regime change and a demilitarized Ukraine under its thumb.

Instead, Ukraine is more sovereign, united, militarized, and Western-aligned than ever.

That’s not a win. That’s a strategic disaster

3/8 At its peak in March 2022, russia occupied ~30% of Ukraine.

Today? Just ~19%.

In 3.5 years, russia hasn’t captured or held a single regional capital.
0 out of 23. That’s a humiliating failure.

Map: @TheStudyofWar

4/8 russia has suffered over a million casualties, burned through massive resources, and still failed—despite help from china, iran, and north korea.

Putin went all in—and still came up short

5/8 Trump wants to help Putin get a “deal.”

But no deal can deliver what russia lost.

Putin’s goals are out of reach.

He’s not negotiating peace—he’s stalling for time

6/8 Why stall?

Because ending the war would
expose the full scale of the failure.

Dragging it out lets Putin blur the truth and pretend it wasn’t all for nothing

7/8 But it was.

All this death and destruction only weakened russia and strengthened Ukraine.

The war made Ukraine stronger—and russia smaller, poorer, and more isolated

8/8 This will be Putin’s legacy:

Losing to Ukraine.

Ruining russia’s future.

And for what? Nothing