🧵This post won't be about int'l security affairs, but about what the here and now at home. I recently drove through the American South on my way to Florida. A few observations that are frankly painful: This young Republic feels old, and the once proud middle class looks poor.1/9
America's interstate system is in disrepair. The same goes for our power grid, with power lines hanging from crooked wooden poles even as you drive through suburbs in major cities. Roads are potholed and patched up, here and there; often not. There is trash along the highway. 2/9
At the same time, I encountered wonderful people in small communities where I stopped for the night - hardworking Americans struggling to make ends meet at service jobs, as manufacturing and processing has been offshored to Asia, gutting communities and making the young leave.3/9
The quality of the food that is daily fare in small town America should serve as a wakeup call-industrially processed, whether you buy it at a grocery store or order in a restaurant. Obesity seems rampant, with too many young men and women packing 300 plus pounds-looking ill. 4/9
All the while, Americans seem to be imprisoned by the all-pervasive algorithm, with our faces glued to cell phone screens. The digital walls companies have put up-whether in basic services, city administration or health care-make human interaction hard to come by and rare. 5/9
With sadness, I realized that the elites of this wealthiest country on earth (when you consider America's GDP) have pushed the once proud middle-class citizenry into an existence that borders poverty. We are fracturing as a nation. The idea of servant leadership has vanished.6/9
I also sensed the tide of anger rising in the heartland-I heard it in my conversations at motel receptions and at restaurant checkouts, as I watched exhausted waitresses work harder than I ever remember. What I heard in their personal stories was anger over elite betrayal. 7/9
This road trip made me realize that those learned debates in DC about the surge of populism in America miss the mark. This is not about politics as usual. This is as real as it gets-Americans who feel betrayed by globalists asking simply this: "Who owns this country anyway." 8/9
I've concluded that we are only at the beginning of our people's rebellion. That as disappointment mounts, anger will overflow. America's cultural DNA abhors oligarchy; it asserts that much is expected of those to whom much has been given. I hope the elites are listening. 9/End
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🧵How many times is it worth repeating that Putin is not interested in an armistice or a peace deal to end the war in #Ukraine? I have little patience left for the breathless speculation in US and European media about what it may/may not take to get the Russians to the table.1/5
So please get this: As long as Putin sees the West as weak and fractured, afraid to take risks and confront him unflinchingly, he will keep pushing and laughing all the way to the proverbial bank. How about some ethical principles and moral clarity that we profess daily? 2/5
How many more times will we dress up appeasement and capitulation as “political realism”? When will we recognize that what Putin calls “@NATO moving East” is actually former Russian colonies moving West to be free of Russian imperial domination and decades of oppression? 3/5
🧵I just listened to another economist bemoan the end of the global free system that the United States has helped to build over eighty years. I'm not a fan of tariffs and the jury is still out as to whether the Trump administration's approach will work. But let's be honest. 1/6
The idea that we have lived in an open global marketplace is bizarre to say the least, considering the amount of regulatory and state intervention we have witnessed over the years. Communist China in particular has been predatory mercantilist in its trade policy for decades. 2/6
This global "free fair trade" was neither free nor fair. It was predatory on the part of Beijing while US corporations allowed themselves to be extorted for intellectual property in exchange for labor arbitrage and market access. All the while, America's heartland was gutted.3/6
🧵The US-EU trade deal has generated a lot of talk on X about how this is a humiliation for the #EU, how it should be a wake up call for Europe, how Europe must assert itself, etc. My take is that if anything it should finally put paid to all the talk about the EU as “Europe.”1/5
The European Union is a treaty-based organization, not a nation-state that can function as a unitary actor in the international system. It has been remarkably successful as a framework for integrating Europe’s markets and providing regulatory structures (sometimes excessive).2/5
But despite all the talk about EU foreign and security policy, Europe remains a continent of nations with distinct histories and cultures, and with regionally-focused threat perceptions and national interests. This should be the starting point of any discussion of EU policy. 3/5
🧵There is a race among European capitals as to which country will take the point as the lead in relations with the United States. In Europe's capitals one hears plenty of talk about the unified EU, but the Trump administration sees it differently, preferring bilateralism. 1/10
Paris, London and most recently Berlin have registered their desire to take that spot, each country's leader having visited the White House with a message of cooperation and underscoring how important transatlantic relations are, both when it comes to the economy and defense.2/10
This is in stark contrast to contrast to various and sundry declarations about the imperative of Europe's "independence" from the United States heard in Berlin and Brussels, or the perennial talk about "strategic autonomy" heard in Paris in different permutations each month. 3/10
🧵A quick follow-on comment on the story in the @WSJ about @Harvard being the premier educational institution for communist China's party elites. The problem is deeper than US schools simply getting foreign student tuition. It is about how ideologically blinded we've become. 1/10
National security is the irreducible function of the state-without it democracies cannot make independent political and economic choices. For a democracy, ensuring that no policy choice endangers national security must be the guiding principle for every aspect of governance. 2/10
And yet for over 30 years we have allowed our adversaries unfettered access to our best universities and research facilities, all the while asserting that in this "globalized flat world" communist China will modernize and generate a pluralist system. What were we smoking? 3/10
🧵Watching the West stumble from one crisis to the next, I think democratic governance has been hollowed by our inept elites, possibly beyond repair. I see this both as a byproduct of globalization and what has been happening deep inside our nations and our communities. 1/10
This hollowing out of Western democracy is not about electoral processes or counting votes. It’s about the elites believing less and less they actually owe something to their fellow citizens by virtue of being part of a larger community. This core national bond is cracking. 2/10
This hollowing out of Western democracies is caused by the decomposition of the nation—driven by the deconstruction of national identity without which the bond of citizenship no longer rests on the mutuality of obligation among citizens regardless of their wealth or class. 3/10