🔥 Sunday 8/31 MLB HR Slate 🔥
15 games | 41.7 projected HRs (2.8/gm)
Top games: SEA@CLE (3.3), AZ@LAD (3.1), TEX@OAK (2.9)
Weather boosts in LAD, SF, PHI, CIN, CHW, MIN, OAK 🌡️
Let’s dive in ⬇️
15 games | 41.7 projected HRs (2.8/gm)
Top games: SEA@CLE (3.3), AZ@LAD (3.1), TEX@OAK (2.9)
Weather boosts in LAD, SF, PHI, CIN, CHW, MIN, OAK 🌡️
Let’s dive in ⬇️
🌤️ HR Weather Watch
Boosts:
• DBacks @ Dodgers +22.2% (92°F, wind out)
• Orioles @ Giants +17.8% (10mph out)
• Cards @ Reds +8.3%
• Yankees @ White Sox +8.2%
• Padres @ Twins +8.2%
• Braves @ Phillies +8.1%
• Rangers @ A’s +7.7% (96°F)
Drag:
• Cubs @ Rockies -28.1%
Boosts:
• DBacks @ Dodgers +22.2% (92°F, wind out)
• Orioles @ Giants +17.8% (10mph out)
• Cards @ Reds +8.3%
• Yankees @ White Sox +8.2%
• Padres @ Twins +8.2%
• Braves @ Phillies +8.1%
• Rangers @ A’s +7.7% (96°F)
Drag:
• Cubs @ Rockies -28.1%
STL @ CIN (12:10 ET)
Top HRP: Nolan Gorman 19.0% (+290), Elly De La Cruz 18.0% (+460), Noelvi Marte 17.6% (+480)
🌡️ 73°F → +8.3% HR boost (temp)
📈 Brady Singer HR-prone (LHBs), Gorman w/ edge
ML: CIN -147 | STL +125 | O/U 8.5
Top HRP: Nolan Gorman 19.0% (+290), Elly De La Cruz 18.0% (+460), Noelvi Marte 17.6% (+480)
🌡️ 73°F → +8.3% HR boost (temp)
📈 Brady Singer HR-prone (LHBs), Gorman w/ edge
ML: CIN -147 | STL +125 | O/U 8.5
SD @ MIN (1:05 ET)
Top HRP: Ramón Laureano 19.8% (+430), Gavin Sheets 19.7% (+470), Byron Buxton 19.1% (+300)
🌡️ 74°F → +8.2% HR boost (temp)
📈 Both lineups feature power bats, Laureano + Sheets stand out
ML: MIN -122 | SD +104 | O/U 8.5
Top HRP: Ramón Laureano 19.8% (+430), Gavin Sheets 19.7% (+470), Byron Buxton 19.1% (+300)
🌡️ 74°F → +8.2% HR boost (temp)
📈 Both lineups feature power bats, Laureano + Sheets stand out
ML: MIN -122 | SD +104 | O/U 8.5
PIT @ BOS (1:35 ET)
Top HRP: Oneil Cruz 20.9% (+560), Roman Anthony 17.0% (+560), Bryan Reynolds 15.7% (+600)
🌡️ 72°F, wind in from CF → neutral HR impact
📈 Giolito HR-prone vs LHBs, Cruz carries slate-high upside
ML: BOS -179 | PIT +150 | O/U 8.5
Top HRP: Oneil Cruz 20.9% (+560), Roman Anthony 17.0% (+560), Bryan Reynolds 15.7% (+600)
🌡️ 72°F, wind in from CF → neutral HR impact
📈 Giolito HR-prone vs LHBs, Cruz carries slate-high upside
ML: BOS -179 | PIT +150 | O/U 8.5
TB @ WSH (1:35 ET)
Top HRP: Brandon Lowe 21.2% (+470), James Wood 18.6% (+440), Junior Caminero 17.0% (+330)
🌡️ 75°F, wind in from CF → neutral HR impact
📈 Lowe best HR profile, TB righties also live vs Brad Lord
ML: TB -147 | WSH +125 | O/U 8.5
Top HRP: Brandon Lowe 21.2% (+470), James Wood 18.6% (+440), Junior Caminero 17.0% (+330)
🌡️ 75°F, wind in from CF → neutral HR impact
📈 Lowe best HR profile, TB righties also live vs Brad Lord
ML: TB -147 | WSH +125 | O/U 8.5
MIL @ TOR (1:37 ET)
Top HRP: George Springer 21.6% (+370), Christian Yelich 20.1% (+500), Brice Turang 19.2% (+900)
🌡️ Dome, neutral weather
📈 Scherzer/ Woodruff matchup but HR profiles strong on both sides
ML: TOR -110 | MIL -107 | O/U 8.0
Top HRP: George Springer 21.6% (+370), Christian Yelich 20.1% (+500), Brice Turang 19.2% (+900)
🌡️ Dome, neutral weather
📈 Scherzer/ Woodruff matchup but HR profiles strong on both sides
ML: TOR -110 | MIL -107 | O/U 8.0
SEA @ CLE (1:40 ET)
Top HRP: Cal Raleigh 20.9% (+230), Jorge Polanco 20.2% (+470), Kyle Manzardo 18.9% (+420)
🌡️ 72°F, wind in → neutral overall (slight HR drag)
📈 Strong SEA bats vs Bibee, CLE LH bats vs Miller
ML: CLE -107 | SEA -110 | O/U 8.5
Top HRP: Cal Raleigh 20.9% (+230), Jorge Polanco 20.2% (+470), Kyle Manzardo 18.9% (+420)
🌡️ 72°F, wind in → neutral overall (slight HR drag)
📈 Strong SEA bats vs Bibee, CLE LH bats vs Miller
ML: CLE -107 | SEA -110 | O/U 8.5
MIA @ NYM (1:40 ET)
Top HRP: Juan Soto 21.1% (+330), Pete Alonso 19.4% (+330), Brett Baty 18.3% (+700)
🌡️ 76°F, wind in → neutral overall (slight HR drag)
📈 Mets power bats vs Alcantara, upside on NYM lefties
ML: NYM -178 | MIA +150 | O/U 8.0
Top HRP: Juan Soto 21.1% (+330), Pete Alonso 19.4% (+330), Brett Baty 18.3% (+700)
🌡️ 76°F, wind in → neutral overall (slight HR drag)
📈 Mets power bats vs Alcantara, upside on NYM lefties
ML: NYM -178 | MIA +150 | O/U 8.0
LAA @ HOU (2:10 ET)
Top HRP: Yoán Moncada 19.6% (+560), Christian Walker 17.6% (+560), Jo Adell 17.1% (+400)
🌡️ Domed stadium → no weather impact
📈 Hunter Brown HR-prone vs LAA bats, Moncada & Neto sneaky spots
ML: HOU -170 | LAA +142 | O/U 7.5
Top HRP: Yoán Moncada 19.6% (+560), Christian Walker 17.6% (+560), Jo Adell 17.1% (+400)
🌡️ Domed stadium → no weather impact
📈 Hunter Brown HR-prone vs LAA bats, Moncada & Neto sneaky spots
ML: HOU -170 | LAA +142 | O/U 7.5
DET @ KC (2:10 ET)
Top HRP: Spencer Torkelson 18.5% (+500), Riley Greene 18.4% (+440), Kerry Carpenter 17.6% (+470)
🌧️ 73°F, 60% rain risk, wind R→L → neutral HR impact
📈 Wacha vulnerable vs LHBs, DET trio has power edge
ML: DET -175 | KC +145 | O/U 7.5
Top HRP: Spencer Torkelson 18.5% (+500), Riley Greene 18.4% (+440), Kerry Carpenter 17.6% (+470)
🌧️ 73°F, 60% rain risk, wind R→L → neutral HR impact
📈 Wacha vulnerable vs LHBs, DET trio has power edge
ML: DET -175 | KC +145 | O/U 7.5
NYY @ CWS (2:10 ET)
Top HRP: Giancarlo Stanton 21.5% (+285), Aaron Judge 20.8% (+200), Colson Montgomery 19.5% (+430)
🌡️ 73°F, light wind L→R → +8.2% HR boost
📈 Pérez HR-prone vs RHBs, Judge/Stanton headline elite matchups
ML: NYY -185 | CWS +154 | O/U 9.0
Top HRP: Giancarlo Stanton 21.5% (+285), Aaron Judge 20.8% (+200), Colson Montgomery 19.5% (+430)
🌡️ 73°F, light wind L→R → +8.2% HR boost
📈 Pérez HR-prone vs RHBs, Judge/Stanton headline elite matchups
ML: NYY -185 | CWS +154 | O/U 9.0
CHC @ COL (3:10 ET)
Top HRP: Michael Busch 22.3% (+230), Hunter Goodman 19.6% (+320), Pete Crow-Armstrong 19.5% (+260)
🌡️ 77°F, wind in → -28.1% HR suppression
📉 Coors still hitter-friendly, but strong in-blowing wind caps ceiling
ML: CHC -246 | COL +200 | O/U 11.0
Top HRP: Michael Busch 22.3% (+230), Hunter Goodman 19.6% (+320), Pete Crow-Armstrong 19.5% (+260)
🌡️ 77°F, wind in → -28.1% HR suppression
📉 Coors still hitter-friendly, but strong in-blowing wind caps ceiling
ML: CHC -246 | COL +200 | O/U 11.0
BAL @ SF (4:05 ET)
Top HRP: Rafael Devers 21.1% (+320), Colton Cowser 18.1% (+630), Willy Adames 17.7% (+420)
🌡️ 72°F, wind out (10 mph) → +17.8% HR boost
📈 Both pitchers homer-prone, SF LHBs have strong edge
ML: SF -139 | BAL +120 | O/U 8.5
Top HRP: Rafael Devers 21.1% (+320), Colton Cowser 18.1% (+630), Willy Adames 17.7% (+420)
🌡️ 72°F, wind out (10 mph) → +17.8% HR boost
📈 Both pitchers homer-prone, SF LHBs have strong edge
ML: SF -139 | BAL +120 | O/U 8.5
TEX @ ATH (4:05 ET)
Top HRP: Rowdy Tellez 21.5% (+420), Nick Kurtz 20.8%, Tyler Soderstrom 19.5% (+400)
🌡️ 96°F heat → +7.7% HR boost despite wind in
📈 Hitter’s weather, both sides bring pop (esp. TEX power bats)
ML: TEX -146 | OAK +122 | O/U 9.5
Top HRP: Rowdy Tellez 21.5% (+420), Nick Kurtz 20.8%, Tyler Soderstrom 19.5% (+400)
🌡️ 96°F heat → +7.7% HR boost despite wind in
📈 Hitter’s weather, both sides bring pop (esp. TEX power bats)
ML: TEX -146 | OAK +122 | O/U 9.5
AZ @ LAD (4:10 ET)
Top HRP: Shohei Ohtani 23.0% (+168), Will Smith 19.8%, Teoscar Hernández 19.5% (+310)
🌡️ 92°F + wind out → massive +22.2% HR boost
📈 Pfadt & Yamamoto both HR-exposed, elite HR environment
ML: LAD -225 | ARI +185 | O/U 9.0
Top HRP: Shohei Ohtani 23.0% (+168), Will Smith 19.8%, Teoscar Hernández 19.5% (+310)
🌡️ 92°F + wind out → massive +22.2% HR boost
📈 Pfadt & Yamamoto both HR-exposed, elite HR environment
ML: LAD -225 | ARI +185 | O/U 9.0
ATL @ PHI (7:10 ET)
Top HRP: Kyle Schwarber 20.2% (+200), Sean Murphy 18.7% (+450), Ronald Acuña Jr. 18.1% (+310)
🌡️ 75°F, mild wind → +8.1% HR boost
📈 Waldrep vulnerable, Schwarber elite HR spot vs RHP
ML: PHI -163 | ATL +136 | O/U 8.5
Top HRP: Kyle Schwarber 20.2% (+200), Sean Murphy 18.7% (+450), Ronald Acuña Jr. 18.1% (+310)
🌡️ 75°F, mild wind → +8.1% HR boost
📈 Waldrep vulnerable, Schwarber elite HR spot vs RHP
ML: PHI -163 | ATL +136 | O/U 8.5
That's the thread! Good luck and tag me in your slips!
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