Thread by @noclador

• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
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As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
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(there is always a "but" with European militaries):

• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries
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the tooth-to-tail ratio is far worse than in Ukraine, where combat personnel (tooth) far outnumbers logistics, training, office, etc. personnel (tail).
• furthermore a fifth of European NATO troops are members of the Turkish Armed Forces, which are not likely to deploy
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en masse to Northern Europe for a war against russia.

Here lies the next problem: Ukraine fields currently 122 combat brigades - all of which consist of hardened and experienced troops, and all of which are deployed where the war is fought.
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Ukrainian brigades are either at the front or near enough to enter the fight within hours of being ordered to move.

European brigades on the other hand... when russia attacks the war will be fought in four theaters:

1) North Atlantic
2) Finland
3) Baltics
4) Black Sea
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and the only brigades, which are where the war will be fought are a Norwegian brigade, lots and lots of Finnish brigades, a handful of Estonian, Latvia and Lithuanian brigades, a German brigade, and the rapidly growing number of Polish Land Forces brigades...
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Everybody else will have to mobilize their brigades, get them to train stations, load them on trains, move them to Poland, unload, stage, prepare,...
Until European brigades are ready russia will have turned the Baltics into a giant Bucha with 10,000s of murdered civilians.
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Until European NATO brigades are ready russia will also have laid 5-6 millions mines at the Polish-Lithuanian border... and lined up 1000s of drone operators to hammer advancing European units, not one (!) of which has experience or capabilities to fight off russian drones.
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But (yes, with European militaries the "buts" come in swarms... ), not all European nations will commit to a war against russia... so no Hungarian brigades, maybe not even permission to move Italian brigades through Hungary. Neither can you count of Slovakia to commit its
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units, and I sure would not rely on Spain with the current government. But there are even more "buts"... even if i.e. Italy commits fully to fighting russia at best the Italian Army can deploy one mechanized brigade and one wheeled mechanized brigade to the Baltic Theater,
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and an alpine brigade for the Finnish Theater. Not, because there isn't the will to commit more brigades... but a lack of vehicles, equipment, ammo, spares etc. mean that no Western European military has the ability to commit all its units for a war against russia.
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I.e. the British Army will be overjoyed if it can put an armoured brigade and the 16 Air Assault Brigade into a fight against russia... again: lack of vehicles, equipment and also personnel. Same for the French, Spanish, Dutch, and especially the current German Army.
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In a best case scenario Western European militaries with their 1 million troops will manage to send a similar number of brigades to the Baltic Theater as Poland with its 216,000 troops.

That is... if russian Spetsnaz aren't blowing up bridges, tunnels, ferries, etc. and
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block i.e. the French from crossing the Rhine, Italians from crossing the Alps, Brits from crossing the Channel.

Ukraine doesn't have those problems: it's units are where the war is fought. And Ukrainian units are ready to go and fight on a moment's notice... just like once
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millions of NATO troops were ready to go and fight the russians at a moment's notice if they had ever dared to cross NATO's borders during the Cold War.

At that time British Army cavalry and US Army cavalry regiments were based less than 30 km from the inner German border.
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Along with Dutch, Belgian and German units, they were based where the fight would have been and being so close to the front meant, they were 100% ready and eager to go.

If Europe wants to deter russia from attacking Europe, it will have to move 10,000s of troops East:
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French, British, Italian, Spanish brigades have to be based permanently in the three Baltic states. Only a strong and permanent (!) military presence next to the invasion zone will deter russia from invading the Baltics, which are, due to their small populations, NATO's
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achilles heel. True, the Baltic populations are some of the most ready warriors on this continent (along with the Finns) and the three Baltics nations are some of the world's highest defence spenders, but russia is recruiting every two months more drunks to fight in Ukraine
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than the three Baltic nations have active troops.

russia can't beat Ukraine,... but once that war winds down russia will need a mere three months max to amass the forces to invade and occupy the Baltic nations. For Europe's own safety and sake, Europe has to keep Ukraine in
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the fight against russia for as long as possible and use the time to

a) double (!), better triple, its militaries
b) base at least 30,000 troops permanently in the Baltics
c) wean itself off completely from its dependence on the US military, because Trump or Vance will
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not commit US forces to fight putin, a dictator they both admire and try to emulate.

Europe is on its own, and unlike Ukraine its militaries are not ready for a war, are not based where the war will be fought, are too small, have too few troops, too little equipment, and
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can't even rely on all European allies to join a war against russia.

Even European air forces, which outclass the russian air force, will have a hard time reaching the Baltic theater... because Austria, Hungary, probably Slovakia will refuse overfly rights... and there
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aren't enough hardened aircraft shelters at Polish air bases to forward base extra fighters.
Therefore French, German, Italian, British, Dutch, etc. fighters will have to be refueled on their way to the fight, but (yet another but) with just 50 tanker aircraft European air
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air forces have for decades relied on the US Air Force's 450+ tankers to refuel European fighters.

The only bright aspect: Europe's A400M transport aircraft can be repurposed as tanker aircraft.

But (yes, the "buts" keep coming...) European air forces like to park
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their most precious aircraft in near lines on their airbases... and the russians have firsthand experience what happens when you park valuable aircraft outside and not in a hardened aircraft shelter... and don't protect them with layers of VSHORAD air defences.
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European air forces need more tankers, a lot more cruise missiles (10,000 would be ideal), more reconnaissance assets (aerial and satellite), more air defences, better protected bases, a LOT more air defence, etc. etc.

I am not worried about the Black Sea Theater, where the
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Turkish Navy and Air Force on their own can easily annihilate whatever ships of the russian Black Sea Fleet Ukraine hasn't sunk yet (Turkey has more submarines and frigates than France and the UK combined)
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Likewise I am not worried about the Finnish Theater, because the Finns are the most prepared and most eager to kill russians people in the universe... and have the numbers, equipment, artillery, terrain, and will (!) to outdo the Ukrainians in stacking russians.
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What Finland needs is additional air power, which Sweden, Norway and Denmark have already agreed to provide.

I am slightly worried about the North Atlantic, because Europe has too few attack submarines, Anti-submarine Warfare (ASW) frigates, and maritime patrol planes (MPA)
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to fully replace the US Navy in the North Atlantic... especially if the US Navy stops flying P-8 Poseidon MPAs from Keflavik in Iceland, there will be huge unpatrolled gaps through which russian attack submarines can sneak past Iceland into the Atlantic and hunt British and
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French ballistic missile submarines, as well as European civilian shipping. More British/Norwegian Type 26 frigates, more German F126 frigate, more French FDI frigates, more Dutch/Belgian ASWF frigates, a new class of Danish ASW frigates and a much faster (!) build schedule
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for all of these frigates are needed, as well as giant order of additional P-8 Poseidon MPA, and an extra dozen of German/Norwegian Type 212CD submarines.

My true worry is the Baltic Theater, where Europe should be using the time Ukrainian bloods buys us to build the bases,
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which will house the brigades that will deter russia from an attack.

Make no mistake the russians will attack Europe. Trump and Vance are their chance to smash NATO and the EU and resume russia's imperial expansion that was interrupted by the fall of the Iron Curtain.
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It is only a question of months once the war in Ukraine enters the frozen conflict stage that putin's military will have redeployed and reformed the units for an invasion of the Baltics... forces will be based a miles from the Baltic nation's borders, while i.e. France's
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best brigades are in the south of France... and Italy's best brigades are in Naples and Tuscany.

And if the Baltics fall, and NATO doesn't come to their salvation as one united alliance, then NATO falls apart... and so will the EU, because: what do you think will happen to
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the Euro and the European economy, if russia can invade and occupy EU-member states, massacre its people and erase these nations without the EU and NATO united and willing to fight and defeat russia?

russia can never defeat Ukraine, because Ukraine has enough troops where
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they are needed to hold the russians at bay. And Ukrainians have the will to fight and the resolve to die for their freedom.

Europe hasn't got the troops, the few it has are at the wrong side of the continent, and there is no will to actually deter the russians by hardening
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the Baltic nations against a russian attack... and this is why at the same time two things are true:

• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

And I do not see any determination in Europe to actually prepare for the latter.
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