Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Sep 2 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
European allies doubt Trump’s peace deal will end Russia’s war, warning Moscow will keep hybrid attacks.

A “coalition of the willing” may guarantee Ukraine’s security with troops from Britain and France, plus financial support from Germany and Poland, Foreign Policy. 1/ Image
A senior European security source says Russia is trying to erode coalition confidence by casting the West as aggressors and highlighting war’s costs.

Troop deployments could trigger Russian false flags, like blaming Ukraine for “dirty bombs” to justify breaking peace. 2/
Russia may meddle in a delayed Ukrainian election to install a pro-Russian regime, using propaganda to discredit Zelensky.

Its hybrid tactics include cyberattacks, sabotage, and weaponizing migration to pressure Lithuania and Estonia if they send troops. 3/
Kremlin could target European troops with disinformation, smearing them or sparking clashes with locals, as seen with U.S. and U.K. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Trump shouldn't believe Putin will honor a peace deal, as Moscow will use every tool to sway opinion. 4X

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More from @Mylovanov

Sep 3
Nataliya Gumenyuk for Foreign Affairs: The Aug 15 Alaska summit didn’t end the war. Putin offered no credible terms; Trump met him without Ukraine at the table. Ukrainians expect a long fight and thinner U.S. support.

1/ Image
Russia hits cities almost nightly; the front runs 750 miles. On Aug 28, a strike on Kyiv killed 22 in a five-story block. Some nights bring 500+ drones/missiles; that night Ukraine shot down 563 drones and 26 missiles.

2/
The front: Russia pressed the Pokrovsk axis; Ukraine checked breaches but faces pressure in Zaporizhzhia and elsewhere. Putin still aims to occupy all of Donetsk and even floated taking the Kramatorsk–Slovyansk “fortress belt”in a “deal.”

3/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 3
Putin: We have always opposed Ukraine becoming a NATO member, but we have never objected to its membership in the EU.

Every country has the right to choose its own security system, this also applies to Ukraine, but not at the expense of another country’s security. 1/
Putin: Every country must have security guarantees, including Ukraine, but this is not related to territorial exchanges.

We are not fighting for territories, but for people’s rights to speak their own language [Russian].

If people expressed their will to be part of Russia, that opinion must be respected. 2/
Putin: As for a meeting with Zelensky, I have never ruled out such a possibility, but whether it makes sense is another matter.

According to the Constitution of Ukraine, the extension of the President’s powers is not provided for. 3/
Read 18 tweets
Sep 3
Finnish President Stubb told Trump and Zelenskyy that Finland "found a solution in 1944" and can help Ukraine in 2025.

Finland ceded 10% of its land to Russia but kept its independence and democracy, unlike many other former Russian territories — The Economist. 1/ Image
Stubb said Finland "still feel we won" despite losing territory. In 1944, with 21 years of independence and under the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, Finland faced Stalin's invasion.

Led by Mannerheim, they balanced fighting and accepting a "bitter peace" to keep independence. 2/
After 16 weeks of brutal fighting, Mannerheim told troops the army "still stands unconquered" despite enemy numbers.

Over 400,000 Finns from Karelia were evacuated. His speech reached Zelenskyy early in the war but was "put to one side.” 3/
Read 7 tweets
Sep 3
CNN: The US had been preparing Ukraine for an energy warfare even before the start of the war in February 2022.

Before Russia's 2022 invasion, the U.S. helped Ukraine disconnect from Russia's grid and connect to Europe's, securing energy for the winters. 1/ Image
Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar contributed energy resources, including Saudi Arabia’s $300 million package.

Russia has launched nearly 3,000 attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this year, up from hundreds previously. 2/
European countries have pledged $500 million to support Ukrainian gas imports and emergency infrastructure restoration.

The U.S. had cancelled a major program for Ukraine’s energy security, but European efforts are now filling the gap. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 3
Kyiv Independent: Ukrainian marine Vladyslav Zadorin lost 60 kg, his gallbladder, and nearly his toes in almost 2 years of Russian captivity. Russians captured him on day 1 in 2022 at Snake Island and moved him through 7 prisons in Russia and occupied Ukraine.

1/ Image
Russians stripped new POWs and ran them through a gauntlet: batons, stun guns, brass knuckles, glass bottles. They electrocuted every body part, set dogs on men, forced fights. They smashed bottles over Zadorin’s head and broke 3 vertebrae with a hammer.

2/
UN: over 95% of released POWs report torture. As of summer 2025, Ukraine freed 6,400 captives; thousands remain. Russia blocks Red Cross access, leaving guards free to torture with no oversight.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 3
Putin is back on the global stage after Alaska summit, says NYT. At the Sept 1 SCO summit in Tianjin, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi embraced him, rode in his limo, and held hands in public.

In 2022 they criticized his war. Now they show Moscow is reintegrated.

1/ Image
The summit’s final communiqué never mentioned Ukraine’s war, even while listing other conflicts. Ukraine’s MFA called it surprising. The silence showed how Putin has eased isolation, even as his troops still fight in Europe’s largest war since WWII.

2/
Trump factor: Tariffs and trade wars with India, Brazil, and South Africa pushed them closer to Moscow.

Modi: India has other options as ties with Washington fray.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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