Trump's Trade War is Not Chaos but a fake "Facade".
It is a design to achieve what Trump wanted since long.
Trump will come out the biggest winner from it.
It was never about Trade imbalance, tariffs etc.
It has been always about Trump.
SCO Meeting in Tianjin what has brought him closer to his goal.
Read this thread till the end and you will understand it.
Trump’s Trade War is not random chaos. It is a carefully staged drama.
Do you remember Trump's spat with JP Morgan CEO and Bank of American in 2018-19 he accused JP Morgan and Bank Of America of denying keeping his money?
It hurt Trump's ego same way when Obama made fun of him during a white house dinner in 2013/14.
Do you really think US's biggest strength is export?
It is its monopolistic companies like Apple, Google, NVIDIA, Meta etc.
The “trade imbalance” story is a cover. Trump's personal business and wealth ambition have lot to do with all of this. Let's start with...
Trump talks about wanting a “strong dollar,” but his personal empire benefits from the opposite.
A weaker dollar makes real estate prices go up, makes it easier to pay off big debts, and raises the value of gold, oil, and commodities.
Foreign investors also find U.S. assets cheaper when the dollar falls. Trump’s wealth is tied to real estate and debt-heavy businesses.
That means when the dollar weakens, he personally wins. His “strong dollar” talk is for markets and media. But behind the scenes, his real incentive is a weaker dollar.
If you look at U.S. trade, the tariff war doesn’t make sense.
America’s real power is not cheap goods — it’s tech, services, and finance. Apple designs in the U.S., manufactures abroad, and sells everywhere. Google, Microsoft, and Meta export digital products, not soybeans or steel.
The U.S. earns trillions through IP, software, and Wall Street, not just goods trade.
So punishing India’s $77B exports or complaining about India buying Russian oil is meaningless compared to tech-driven profits. That’s why tariffs are more about politics and disruption than fixing trade gaps.
So why the tariff drama?
Because it creates fear and pushes countries to think about life beyond the dollar. Buying Greenland, joking about Canada as a 51st state, or threatening 145% tariffs are not “solutions.”
They are pressure tactics.
The louder the threats, the more countries wonder if relying only on the U.S. dollar is too risky.
That thought pushes blocs like BRICS and others to speed up work on local currency trade. In simple terms: the tariffs don’t fix trade but they push others away from the dollar.
And here is the twist: Trump benefits when that happens. Smaller economies that can’t build big currency agreements will look at crypto as an option.
Crypto or tokenized trade becomes the fallback.
Trump has recently embraced crypto, even taking campaign donations in Bitcoin.
Financial analysis and various reports suggest overall profits from the Trump meme coin alone exceeded $350 million, and in some accounts reached as high as $385 million when including fees and realized sales.
At one stage, the market value of Trump’s meme coin holdings was temporarily estimated at many billions of dollars
That is not random — it shows he sees opportunity if alternatives to the dollar grow. If crypto systems take off, those who build them early — Trump’s allies, donors, or his businesses — stand to profit.
Tariff chaos becomes a way to build a new money system Trump can cash in on.
The tariff logic also fails because of supply chains. U.S. tech companies depend on cheaper production in Asia, India, and other economies.
If you put tariffs on those imports, costs go up for American firms themselves. That’s why these fights are not really about economics — they are about headlines, disruption, and creating political noise.
Behind the noise, the bigger shift is already happening: countries are moving slowly toward alternatives to the dollar, and Trump’s circle is preparing to benefit when that shift speeds up.
Look at South Asia.
During Operation Sindoor, Trump quickly claimed he had mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan.
India publicly denied it, but inside Pakistan it looked like Trump had forced their generals to beg for peace.
Then Trump’s anti-India comments made him look friendly to Pakistan’s military elite.
Why does that matter? Because Pakistan is rich in minerals.
Building influence with the army there means gaining future access to resources.
Trump initiated this just around Pahalgam Attack taking Pakistani General Asim Munir in confidence.
China was in the lead with infra investments but Trump made a wild card entry.
Ukraine is even bigger.
The country has massive deposits of rare earths and critical minerals — key for defense, energy, and tech.
Some estimates say they are worth trillions. Trump has often talked about pushing for a ceasefire. Of course, peace would be good for the world, but it would also give him a way to be in the room when deals over Ukraine’s resources are made.
If sanctions on Russia are lifted after a peace deal, new trade will open.
Trade will boom through local currencies, gold, crypto etc. Examples will be taken from how India or China traded with Russia during sanctions.
Again Trump's crypto and other non-dollar systems will come into play.
Now to SCO: At the Tianjin Summit, Xi, Putin, and Modi stood united in front of 20+ leaders, pushing the idea of alternatives to U.S.-led financial systems.
They announced a new SCO development bank, financial aid, AI cooperation, and BeiDou satellite access—tools undercutting dollar dominance.
Leaders committed to using national currencies for trade, and talked about launching regional swap funds and digital-payment systems.
All of this plays directly into Trump’s broader play: weakening the dollar while ramping up global alternatives that he and his families and allies can exploit.
These SCO moves feed into a global de-dollarization trend. China is pushing a multipolar world while offering infrastructure, credit, and tech outside Western institutions.
India’s involvement signals strategic autonomy. Central banks are buying gold, reducing dollar reserves.
The dollar’s shrinking role and rise of new systems (gold, regional currencies, crypto) are not abstract—they reshape global power.
Meanwhile, Trump’s asset portfolio—real estate, debt-heavy holdings, minerals, crypto—is poised to benefit from this financial realignment.
The bottom line: Trump’s Trade War was never about fixing trade balances.
It was about fracturing dollar dominance, nudging the world toward financial alternatives, and building access—for himself—to the value systems that emerge. The SCO summit brought us a step closer.
As global power diversifies, Trump may be the unexpected king of the rubble. It was never about America’s trade deficit—it was always about Trump.
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Raghuram Rajan said Pakistan played it smart and got the better deal.
Reality check:
After 8.2% GDP growth for last quarter, India surpassed all predictions with its exports in November.
India’s exports jumped 19% to $38.13B in November. Exports to the US surged 22.6% YoY and 10% MoM.
Pakistan’s exports to the US fell ~15% in the same month.
Turns out noise does not move trade. Strategy does.
Thread. 👇
November 2025 changed the debate. Merchandise exports jumped 19% YoY to $38.13B, and total exports (goods + services) hit $73.99B.
India’s export growth was not narrow. It was broad-based.
Major drivers in November 2025:
• Engineering goods +23.76%
• Electronic goods +38.96%
• Gems and jewellery +27.80%
• Drugs and pharmaceuticals +20.91%
• Petroleum products +11.65%
This matters because many of these sectors are either higher value or less tariff-sensitive.
The merchandise trade deficit slumped from a record ~$41.7B in October to $24.53B in November — far better than market estimates.
India’s exports to the U.S. rose 22.6% in November to $6.98 billion, which is even higher than its exports of $6.31 billion in the prior month.
India’s exports to the U.S. were down 8.6% in October and 11.9% in September.
India’s exports of goods and services for November were up 15.52% at $73.99 billion.
Those are not small moves: they show exports rose while imports eased, tightening external balances in one month.
US TRADE: REBOUND DESPITE HIGH TARIFFS
India’s merchandise goods trade deficit, which had touched a record high of roughly $41.7 billion in October, shrank to $24.5 billion in November, beating a Reuters poll estimate of $32 billion.
Even with US duties increased (extra 25% in Aug, taking some lines to ~50%), exports to the US rose ~22.6% in November to ~$6.98B, reversing falls in September-October.
That rebound came from shifting product mix and higher-value shipments rather than volume-led commodity pushes. In short: tariffs raised costs, but exporters changed what and how they sold.
IndiGo Chaos was planned well in advance in May 2025.
It was designed to bring Govt to its toes.
DGCA and Civil Aviation were never the target of this chaos.
Air India crash was the starting point.
It is part of a complicated geo politcal battle.
Read this till the end.
Turkish connection:
IndiGo codeshares to 40+ European/US points via Turkish; reciprocal for Turkish on Indian routes.
Turkish airline is the major partner.
The major shareholder of Turkish Airlines is the Türkiye Wealth Fund (Turkish Wealth Fund), which holds approximately 49.12% of the company's shares.
This fund's chairman is President Erdogan.
Turkey has been the biggest logistical and political supporter of Pakistan during Op Sindoor.
Along with Pakistan Turkey also lost credibility of its drones and business due to India cancelling contracts for Turkish companies and Indians bycotting Turkey in different forms.
Before Air India crash on June 12, explosives...
were found on Turkish Airlines flight surprise check in India a week prior to deadly crash.
Remember India suspended contracts of Celebi Airport Services India Private Limited. Erdogan's duaghter is a major share holder there.
After the deadly crash there were reports of Air India facing trouble, emergency landing and so on.
It created mistrust among people and passengers prefered IndiGo more.
Now comes the second twist in the tail.
Is Turkey the one behind all this? Answer is yes but not alone.
Large scale GPS spoofing reporting coupled of days back.
ISI operatives arrested in Gujarat.
Now tons of explosives found with doctors in Faridabad.
What if the GPS “spoofing” around Delhi Airport last week wasn’t just a random tech glitch… but part of a larger counterintelligence game?
The timing is too sharp to ignore because: 1. Visit of Israeli PM Netanyahu 2. Visit of Russian President Putin in December. 3. Preceded by Series of NOTAMs across India 4. Now back to back arrests and 2900KG explosive
In recent days, Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA), Delhi’s busiest hub, saw an unusual spike in navigation disturbances. Articulated in news reports: fake GPS signals — a phenomenon called “spoofing” — misled aircraft position systems within roughly 60 nautical miles of the airport.
At the same time, the main runway’s Instrument Landing System (ILS) had been temporarily withdrawn for upgrading to Category III status — meaning aircraft were more reliant than usual on satellite-based navigation.
Put together: a scenario where normal defences were weaker — and something tested India’s air-domain resilience.
What exactly was going wrong? Spoofing differs from jamming: instead of blocking signals, fake GPS transmissions make receivers believe they are somewhere they aren’t.
At IGIA, while ILS was offline for upgrade, aircraft were relying on RNP (Required Navigation Performance) which depends on GPS. Once GPS signals started getting manipulated up to 60 nm out, authorities flagged the risk. The gap between ground-aids and satellite-aids became a vulnerability — one that apparently adversaries or non-state actors tested.
There are many possibilities of what's going on behind the scene:
Is "failed attempt" duringSCO summit on Modi still in action?
In the past few days, pilots arriving into IGI have reported odd GNSS behaviour: their navigation systems showing incorrect positions, altitudes or paths — clear signs of GPS spoofing, where fake satellite signals are beamed to confuse aircraft.
This is far more serious than a routine tech glitch: when approach paths are compromised, aircraft must divert or go manual...
increasing workload for controllers, raising safety risk.
Add to this that IGI already had a partially limited landing system (ILS upgrade ongoing) and an easterly wind change forcing arrivals from the Dwarka side, and you get a perfect storm.
The message: the skies over India’s busiest airport just got a lot more hazardous not just from weather, but from cyber-physical interference.
WAS A VVIP THE TARGET — OR WAS IT A MESSAGE?
Delhi was handling heavy VVIP and election-related air movements (Bihar) with choppers, charters, and security flights crisscrossing the same corridors.
Combine that with a sudden string of spoof events and an ATC messaging failure that delayed hundreds of flights, and you have the anatomy of an intimidation campaign: create fear, force movement, paralyze decision-making.
We have every right to ask whether this was a message aimed at our leadership — recall the recent reporting and heated speculation around assassination plots and suspicious foreign footprints at international forums.
Allegations exist in the public domain; investigators must follow these leads openly, not petulantly dismiss them. Treat this as potential state-level coercion by hostile proxies until proven otherwise.
THE NEW BATTLEFIELD IS SIGNALS — NOT JUST STRIPES.
Pakistan's Afghanistan Crisis: What Orchestrated it?
To eliminate TTP chief?
Absolutely NOT.
Then?
There are multiple factors including Op Sindoor.
This conflict can go longer than what it seems.
Read this thread till the end.
Pakistan’s cross-border strikes into Afghanistan can't be understood simply as counterterrorism.
Domestically, Islamabad is facing escalating unrest among the Baloch and Pashtun populations protests, demands for rights, accusations of enforced disappearances, economic neglect.
The army’s image, once almost uncontested, is under pressure as the primary “institution” holding the country together.
By projecting external threats, the civil-military complex seeks to reassert its indispensability.
The Afghan front ....
...becomes the dramatic stage for showing “we are protecting the nation,” even as discontent grows at home in structurally marginalized regions.
There is also a palpable desire in Pakistani leadership to demonstrate loyalty to Washington.
The talk of reclaiming Bagram Airbase by the US under Trump has drawn regional concern. By engaging in high-stakes military operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan appears to be indicating that it is still a willing security partner, able to act militarily, share intelligence, and tighten cross-border pressure.
In doing so, Islamabad may hope for political, financial, intelligence or diplomatic rewards from the US. The base issue is symbolic of US strategic priorities in South Asia and China’s growing influence.
Pakistan is about to serve POJK on platter to India.
Modi-Shah-Doval had pressed panic button back in 2019.
Dont forget Doval's work in China.
Pahalgam Attack and Op Sindoor made it worse.
Read this thread to understand how Greed, Power and Religion making Pakistan explode👇
Pakistan is breaking from within.
Economic collapse, militant violence, and political greed have torn apart what once held it together.
Religion no longer unites, the army no longer commands respect, and foreign powers are pulling its strings.
The fall began in 2019 when India revoked Article 370. That single act shattered Pakistan’s Kashmir dream and stripped its ideological core.
Since then, every desperate move to regain relevance has only dragged it deeper into isolation and internal decay.
The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 ended Pakistan’s moral claim over Kashmir.
Decades of propaganda collapsed overnight. The country that built its identity on “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” was left speechless.
Even Muslim nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia chose trade with India over solidarity with Pakistan.
That humiliation cracked the myth that Islam alone could sustain national unity.
From that moment, Pakistan began its slow implosion. It was no longer the voice of the Muslim world, just another struggling state seeking attention in global politics.