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Sep 2 12 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Trump's Trade War is Not Chaos but a fake "Facade".

It is a design to achieve what Trump wanted since long.

Trump will come out the biggest winner from it.

It was never about Trade imbalance, tariffs etc.

It has been always about Trump.

SCO Meeting in Tianjin what has brought him closer to his goal.

Read this thread till the end and you will understand it.Image
Trump’s Trade War is not random chaos. It is a carefully staged drama.

Do you remember Trump's spat with JP Morgan CEO and Bank of American in 2018-19 he accused JP Morgan and Bank Of America of denying keeping his money?

It hurt Trump's ego same way when Obama made fun of him during a white house dinner in 2013/14.

Do you really think US's biggest strength is export?

It is its monopolistic companies like Apple, Google, NVIDIA, Meta etc.

The “trade imbalance” story is a cover. Trump's personal business and wealth ambition have lot to do with all of this. Let's start with...Image
Trump talks about wanting a “strong dollar,” but his personal empire benefits from the opposite.

A weaker dollar makes real estate prices go up, makes it easier to pay off big debts, and raises the value of gold, oil, and commodities.

Foreign investors also find U.S. assets cheaper when the dollar falls. Trump’s wealth is tied to real estate and debt-heavy businesses.

That means when the dollar weakens, he personally wins. His “strong dollar” talk is for markets and media. But behind the scenes, his real incentive is a weaker dollar.Image
If you look at U.S. trade, the tariff war doesn’t make sense.

America’s real power is not cheap goods — it’s tech, services, and finance. Apple designs in the U.S., manufactures abroad, and sells everywhere. Google, Microsoft, and Meta export digital products, not soybeans or steel.

The U.S. earns trillions through IP, software, and Wall Street, not just goods trade.

So punishing India’s $77B exports or complaining about India buying Russian oil is meaningless compared to tech-driven profits. That’s why tariffs are more about politics and disruption than fixing trade gaps.Image
So why the tariff drama?

Because it creates fear and pushes countries to think about life beyond the dollar. Buying Greenland, joking about Canada as a 51st state, or threatening 145% tariffs are not “solutions.”

They are pressure tactics.

The louder the threats, the more countries wonder if relying only on the U.S. dollar is too risky.

That thought pushes blocs like BRICS and others to speed up work on local currency trade. In simple terms: the tariffs don’t fix trade but they push others away from the dollar.Image
And here is the twist: Trump benefits when that happens. Smaller economies that can’t build big currency agreements will look at crypto as an option.

Crypto or tokenized trade becomes the fallback.

Trump has recently embraced crypto, even taking campaign donations in Bitcoin.

Financial analysis and various reports suggest overall profits from the Trump meme coin alone exceeded $350 million, and in some accounts reached as high as $385 million when including fees and realized sales.

At one stage, the market value of Trump’s meme coin holdings was temporarily estimated at many billions of dollars

That is not random — it shows he sees opportunity if alternatives to the dollar grow. If crypto systems take off, those who build them early — Trump’s allies, donors, or his businesses — stand to profit.

Tariff chaos becomes a way to build a new money system Trump can cash in on.Image
The tariff logic also fails because of supply chains. U.S. tech companies depend on cheaper production in Asia, India, and other economies.

If you put tariffs on those imports, costs go up for American firms themselves. That’s why these fights are not really about economics — they are about headlines, disruption, and creating political noise.

Behind the noise, the bigger shift is already happening: countries are moving slowly toward alternatives to the dollar, and Trump’s circle is preparing to benefit when that shift speeds up.
Look at South Asia.

During Operation Sindoor, Trump quickly claimed he had mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

India publicly denied it, but inside Pakistan it looked like Trump had forced their generals to beg for peace.

Then Trump’s anti-India comments made him look friendly to Pakistan’s military elite.

Why does that matter? Because Pakistan is rich in minerals.

Building influence with the army there means gaining future access to resources.

Trump initiated this just around Pahalgam Attack taking Pakistani General Asim Munir in confidence.

China was in the lead with infra investments but Trump made a wild card entry.Image
Ukraine is even bigger.

The country has massive deposits of rare earths and critical minerals — key for defense, energy, and tech.

Some estimates say they are worth trillions. Trump has often talked about pushing for a ceasefire. Of course, peace would be good for the world, but it would also give him a way to be in the room when deals over Ukraine’s resources are made.

If sanctions on Russia are lifted after a peace deal, new trade will open.

Trade will boom through local currencies, gold, crypto etc. Examples will be taken from how India or China traded with Russia during sanctions.

Again Trump's crypto and other non-dollar systems will come into play.Image
Now to SCO: At the Tianjin Summit, Xi, Putin, and Modi stood united in front of 20+ leaders, pushing the idea of alternatives to U.S.-led financial systems.

They announced a new SCO development bank, financial aid, AI cooperation, and BeiDou satellite access—tools undercutting dollar dominance.

Leaders committed to using national currencies for trade, and talked about launching regional swap funds and digital-payment systems.

All of this plays directly into Trump’s broader play: weakening the dollar while ramping up global alternatives that he and his families and allies can exploit.Image
These SCO moves feed into a global de-dollarization trend. China is pushing a multipolar world while offering infrastructure, credit, and tech outside Western institutions.

India’s involvement signals strategic autonomy. Central banks are buying gold, reducing dollar reserves.

The dollar’s shrinking role and rise of new systems (gold, regional currencies, crypto) are not abstract—they reshape global power.

Meanwhile, Trump’s asset portfolio—real estate, debt-heavy holdings, minerals, crypto—is poised to benefit from this financial realignment.Image
The bottom line: Trump’s Trade War was never about fixing trade balances.

It was about fracturing dollar dominance, nudging the world toward financial alternatives, and building access—for himself—to the value systems that emerge. The SCO summit brought us a step closer.

As global power diversifies, Trump may be the unexpected king of the rubble. It was never about America’s trade deficit—it was always about Trump.Image

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More from @deepdownanlyz

Sep 1
7.8% GDP Growth, under 2% Inflation... Just "Sheer Luck"?

Answer is NO.

No matter how much "ecosystem" troll Finance Minister;

these two numbers are the "naked" truth explaining how outstanding have been her policies.

It’s the result of a decade of reforms, fiscal discipline, and bold policy bets by PM Modi & FM Nirmala Sitharaman.

Read this till the end👇Image
India’s economy continues to shine globally during Trump Tariff War.

For Q1 of FY 2025-26 (April–June 2025), GDP growth came in at 7.8%, the fastest in five quarters, comfortably beating market expectations.

This compares to ~6.5% in the same quarter last year, showing resilience despite global headwinds like oil price volatility and trade tensions.

With this, India cements its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

The performance reflects not just short-term demand but also years of structural reforms and fiscal strategy under PM Modi and FM Sitharaman, designed to sustain high growth while keeping inflation under control.Image
The growth story in Q1 FY 2026 is broad-based.

Services led with 9.3% expansion, fueled by IT, finance, and hospitality.

Manufacturing clocked 7.7% growth, riding on strong domestic demand and the government’s PLI schemes.

Construction too surged at 7.6%, reflecting the massive public infrastructure push. Even agriculture grew at 3.7%, despite uneven monsoons.

On demand side: Government consumption rose 9.7%, private consumption jumped 7.0%, and investments (gross fixed capital formation) expanded 7.8%.

These numbers highlight the interplay of private demand, public capex, and services momentum, forming a balanced growth pattern unlike earlier consumption-only spikes.Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 28
India is going to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.

But EU doesn't want it to happen.

Read this thread till the end.

Did you read the news "Modi didn't answer Trump's multiple call"?

It was reported by a German media house FAZ.

Why did European media so desperately published it?

Govt sources could have leaked this "Bold Posturing of Modi" to Indian media.

Geo Politics is now a 3D Chessboard and ...Image
50% Tariff by Trump on India has started.

But along with this there are few more pieces are moving on global chessboard.

1. Trump has recently met EU , Ukraine, Putin for a peace deal
2. Modi Meeting President Putin in China
3. Ukraine President Zelensky is planning visit to India
4. European super powers are not comfortable with Ukraine war coming to stop
5. President Putin's India visit is being planned out.

If we look at...Image
... these events closely, there is a clear indication:

Trump wants Ukraine war to end quickly. But it wont happen just by Trump pursuing and putting pressure on Putin. Putin can't simply project that he went for peace because of a US President.

To make this happen, India and Modi has to be the name which Putin can highlight as mediator for the peace deal.

To make this happen, Putin's meeting with Modi in China on the sidelines of SCO meet followed by Zelensky and Putin's plan to visit India separately are lined up.

But two questions must be coming to your mind :
1. Why Trump pressuring India with Tariff?
2. Who want Peace and who doesn't?Image
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Aug 27
🚨Awaited Opinion Poll of Bihar Is Here:

Read till the end to know the mood of Bihar.

Collected Sample Size: 29557
Time Frame: 43 Days- July 6th to August 18th

You will find region wise expected seat share, overall vote share and overall seat share along with reason.Image
Image
Magadh Bhojpur region:

BJP+: 28
RJD+: 40
JSP: 1
Others:0

This has been one of the major pain points of BJP+ in entire Bihar and a stronghold of RJD+.

Dalit vote is largely influenced by Communists in this region.

Low voter turnout is another factor directly helping RJD+ and indirectly damaging BJP+.

Jan Suraj is capturing on swing vote as well as young mass across the caste and religion lines.

BJP+(in a coordinated fight unlike 2020) can give a strong fight based on caste equation in favour and lesser split of vote.

Sentiment was mostly positive on ground for PM Modi as well as Tejaswi in different pockets.

Jan Suraj will do damage to both the groups on more than 13 seats.Image
North Bihar:

NDA: 46
RJD+: 25
Jan Suraj: 1
Others: 0

It has been a bastion for BJP+ recently and difficult for RJD+.

People were very positive with Modi govt.

Op Sindoor's sentiment running high.

People fear "JungleRaaj" under RJD regime.

There is huge consolidation and anti-consolidation already on ground.

Nitish Kumar's Mahadalit's consolidation is high in this region particularly flood prone region.

Vote Chori: People were not interested to hear that. Simply denied this allegation as "Circus".

Jan Suraj is appealing young Muslim voters and can hamper RJD+ chance on 6 seats and BJP+ chance on 4 seats.Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 24
Act East Policy of Modi: The silent shield of India from Trump Tariff war

Trump may threaten India with 50% tariffs, but this isn’t 2018 anymore.

Under Modi, India’s Act East policy and Global South leadership have rewired trade routes and capital flows.

With Japan committing ¥10 trillion ($68B), ASEAN trade booming, and new FDI streams from Singapore, Korea, and Vietnam, India has unlocked alternate engines of growth.

Instead of being cornered, India is positioned to turn tariff wars into a strategic advantage.
Read:Image
If Washington turns the tariff dial up on India, New Delhi won’t just duck—it will pivot and profit.

Why?
Because a decade of Act East and India’s leadership of the Global South has rebuilt the risk map: more capital from the East, more markets in ASEAN and Australia, tighter Japan ties, and deeper South–South corridors.

That means new buyers, new factories, and new logistics to blunt US duties.

With ASEAN trade at $121B (FY24), and Japan preparing a ¥10 trillion (~$68B) decade-long investment plan, India’s eastward shock absorbers are already installed—and revving.Image
Tariff threat, real numbers:

The tariff threat isn’t theoretical: the US has already moved on broad hikes affecting key import lines; industry lobbies at home are scrambling for carve-outs as prices jump.

Indian categories like shrimp, leather, and select engineering goods are in the blast zone.

This is exactly where diversification matters. If punitive rates bite in the US, India is looking to reroute export effort toward ASEAN (11% of India’s global trade, $121B FY24), Australia (ECTA driving double-digit export growth), and Japan (demand + capital).

The strategy is to replace vulnerable demand before it disappears.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 21
"Tariff Thunderstorm" crushing Indian Economy?

Request you read till the end.

Brightest Economy of the world hit a major setback when 'friend' Trump announced 50% tariff.

Few even declared Indian economy 'Dead' and GDP to sink.

But here’s the twist:

60% of India's GDP is domestic consumption.

And Modi govt have already fired 3 economic cannons:Image
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1. Massive income tax relief much before Trump Tariff
2. GST overhaul,
3. Low-inflation fueled credit expansion.

Instead of a slowdown, India might roar ahead with demand-led growth. This isn’t coincidence—it’s a pre-emptive strategy.

For India, the U.S. is a top export market (~$77 bn in 2024). Higher tariffs will hurt textiles, IT, pharma & engineering goods.

Through income tax reforms, GST overhaul, inflation control, and smart trade diversification, India is pivoting from export dependency to domestic demand strength.

Let’s decode how 1 lakh crore tax relief can become 5 lakh crore in consumption, GST rationalisation frees supply chains, CPI-led repo cuts boost credit, and Russia offsets U.S. trade loss.Image
Income Tax Relief Multiplier:

India's biggest strength is its own domestic market which is capturing whole world's attention.

Modi govt made a solid move to increase domestic consumption.

The 2025 Budget’s big bang: Income Tax-free up to ₹12 lakh. This is not just middle-class relief — it’s a demand bomb.

IMF’s KV Subramanian estimates ₹1 lakh crore in tax cuts can multiply into ₹5 lakh crore in consumption — nearly 2.7% of GDP.

Why?Image
Read 13 tweets
Aug 19
“Vote Chori” vs Verified Reality: Why this claim doesn't hold ground?

Opposition allege India’s 2024 mandate was stolen through “vote chori.”

But India’s election system leaves a paper trail (Form 17C, VVPAT slips), open counting, randomization safeguards, and legal verification routes.

Claims about “house number 0” voters, inflated turnout, or close margins collapse when tested against ECI rules, Supreme Court judgments, and hard data.

This thread breaks down—point by point—why the allegations don’t withstand scrutiny and what the actual evidence shows.Image
1) “Vote chori” claims: let’s begin with turnout math

The Election Commission computes turnout as EVM votes + postal ballots ÷ total electors.

On polling day, provisional % excludes many postals; final numbers arrive later after State CEOs certify them. That’s why you saw initial polling-station turnout of 65.79% in LS-2024, which increased when postals were added.

To counter rumor, ECI even published absolute voter counts phase-wise mid-election and explained this in a formal note.

This is standard practice since 1961 rules—not any manipulation. Claiming “mystery numbers” = theft is a misreading of procedure, not evidence of fraud.Image
2) Booth truth exists in black & white: Form 17C

Every polling station prepares Form 17C on poll day—signed by the Presiding Officer and handed to all agents.

This carbon copy records exact votes polled at that booth, and agents take it away that day. If numbers changed magically, opposition candidates already have the proof to expose mismatches.

Courts refused to force ECI to upload 1.2 million Form 17Cs online mid-election—but they confirmed every candidate already gets copies.

Counting reconciles these 17Cs with round-wise totals in front of agents. Unless specific 17C mismatches are tabled, sweeping “vote theft” is just rhetoric.
Read 13 tweets

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