People's Art of War 人民兵法 Profile picture
Sep 3 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Watch the carriers and the nuclear submarine patrols.

Nuclear-powered carrier strike groups extend endurance and keep pressure forward. Along with Marine expeditionary forces.

SSBN and SSN patrols stretch reach and lock down deterrence.
1/x
Building power projection will take a few decades. Which is why Beijing is so careful to maintain a non intervention stance.

Power projection is critical. But the PLAN cannot sustain extended pr large scale blue water deployments.

Endurance is a major factor. Image
2/x
Endurance is the ability of a nabal force to remain in the field. This is the sustainment I keep mentioning.

Fuel, supplies, and logistics.

It measures how long a task force can stay effective once deployed. Even nuclear powered ships with unlimited range are affected. Image
3/x
China has the hardware, carriers, LHDs, SSBNs.

But hasn't developed the oversead sustainment infrastructure that gives the USN global endurance and power projection.

No Djibouti isn't enough. Image
4/x
The main gap here is the endurance difference.

Future PLA MEUs = short-range, short-duration. U.S. MEUs = long-range, long-duration.

Chinese carriers = limited deployments. U.S. carriers = sustained global presence.

Chinese SSBNs = East Asian patrols. U.S. SSBNs = worldwide patrols.Image
5/END

China isn’t incapable. But building endurance takes time.

Expect 3 shifts:

-Use politics and economics to open lines for overseas bases, framing them as goodwill, not garrisons.

-Reshape naval doctrine and C2 to handle longer deployments.

-Push diplomatic and development narratives to build support while capability catches up.

Because China is so trade focused? This will be strategically layered.

Like political and economic outreach alongside naval growth, much like Britain once did. Trade and naval power go hand in hand even now.Image
@threadreaderapp unroll

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with People's Art of War 人民兵法

People's Art of War 人民兵法 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @pplsartofwar

Aug 24
Crushing live trees isn't a banal thing.

There's a larger cultural, political, and legal dark dynamic behind this:

- Breaking cultural ties to land and terror
- Break claims to the land and justify legality
- Strategic cultural erasure.

Lets break this down.
🧵[Thread] Image
1/x
Lets talk first about the significance of the olive to Levantine culture. (Palestinian, Syrian, Lebanese, etc.).

In the Levant is a civilizational relic a living monument. They live over hundreds of years. With some olive groves that are 1000 years old. Image
2/x
They're tied to land ownership. Ownership often passes through oral memory, handwritten documents, or Ottoman era deeds.

They're often noted in property deeds descriptions. Trees are also registered in family histories as anchors of origin. Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 21
Let's talk about the AI bubble. Warned about it. What gets affected if it pops:

- compute resellers and hyperscalers
- data companies
- AI startups (wrappers)
- data centers

Waited over a year to talk about this.

🧵[Thread]
1/x
Compute resellers vanish first. GPUs and TPUs. They buy time/instances from someone else’s data center. Then resell it. They zero moat and make money from markups. Their whole business model: buy compute at bulk, chop it into smaller units, resell at a premium.
2/x
Resellers don’t control the hardware, they don’t have long-term contracts, and they don’t offer a moat. When the AI market slows down, they’re the first to disappear. There’s nothing holding customers to them.
Read 20 tweets
Aug 19
Diplomatic protocol tactics are underrated. In reality, it's a skill that's valuable in any diplomatic setting.

They fall under three main types:

- bridging
- persuading
- balancing

Here’s what they are. And how they're used.

🧵[Thread] Image
1/x
Bridging is the first one. You establish a connection with your counterpart(s) across the room. You remove tension by summit activities, room aesthetics, etc.

It’s the humanizing: creating a personal connection so leaders can relate, relax, and have a two-way dialogue. Image
2/x
Good example:
Making Xi and Putin making blini together in aprons. Sharing culinary traditions taps into the emotions, piercing the veil of the culture in a way that policy conversations can’t.

It breaks the stiffness of state formality and encourages familiarity. Image
Read 11 tweets
Aug 14
Why Alaska is used again for negations? It's not just Trump and Putin meeting. There's diplomatic reasons:

- Meeting in the middle
- Distance from flashpoints
- Staging for graduated engagement
- Controlled access

A venue is a stage and a battlefield. Her's why.

🧵(Thread) Image
1/x
This isn't the first time Alaska has been used. Nixon for Japan. And Regan for the Pope. Most recently it was used during the tense 2021 China US summit during the Biden administration. Image
2/x
Both in China and Russia's case? Alaska gets chosen to emphasize neither side was summoning the other to their capital. Which can be inappropriate for early talks.

Meeting on roughly middle ground equalizes the venue. A diplomatic concession to emphasize equal footing. Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 4
"Do not debate! Is one of my inventions"
Is a much lesser known quote from Deng Xiaoping.

Here's what it really means:
- Power must precede consensus
- Output over debate and signaling
- Strategic ambiguity allows reform and compromise

There's a bit to go into this
🧵 Image
1/x
After the Cultural Revolution, the PRC was institutionally shell-shocked. Factions of the CPC had torn into each other, paralyzing ministries and state capacity. A culture of fear replaced bureaucratic discipline. Signaling and slogans prevailed.

Deng inherited disorder. Image
3/x
Deng realized that the PRC could not survive by staying ideologically loyal to Mao. But also could not survive by disowning him. Legitimacy of the state rested on it.

The Party was unified on paper but internally fragmented. With shared knowledge that open confrontation could tear the system apart again.Image
Read 10 tweets
May 13
Never would've guessed from the naval shipbuilding rates, formation of amphibious task forces, carrier production, military reforms, and others.

The list goes on and on since the 2010s.
The biggest hidden changes aren't only the weapons. Its also improvement in the command and control.

Big ones are the reorganization of the military theaters into military commands. Then formation of a joint staff in the Central Military Commission.

Both go a long way to improving logistics, procurement, sustainment, and joint coordination of the various services.Image
*building of amphibious assault ships. Not task forces.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(