Why isn't China commenting or moving in Gaza?

What is the role that realpolitik plays into this - even though this is a major humanitarian crisis?

Let's talk about it. From a realpolitik angle.

🧵(Thread) 1. Why would China even consider intervening?

Gaza is a humanitarian catastrophe—thousands dead, cities destroyed, civilians trapped.

China sees that. But states don’t act on sympathy alone. They act when it serves their interests and when they have the force to make it count.

Gaza offers neither.
– No control over key energy routes.
– No impact on Taiwan, the South China Sea, or East Asia’s balance.
– No shift in U.S.-China competition.

Even if China wanted to intervene, it lacks the military presence and logistics to back it up. Taking a position without power behind it is meaningless.

And worse declaring a side openly means compromising diplomacy elsewhere.
– Support Israel? Alienate Iran, Saudi Arabia, Muslim partners.
– Support Hamas? Blow up ties with Israel, Western markets, Europe.

No payoff for a massive strategic loss. With a narrative that can be spun by the US that its a terrorist supporter.

Better to stay quiet, keep options open, and focus on where their interests

Let's step away from Ukraine for a bit. Talk about the Chinese task force south of Australia.

China has been sailing a three ship task force in international waters near NZ and AUS

Here's a thread of what you need to know:

🧵 1. What ships are involved?

The fleet is composed of three ships. CNS Zunyi (107), frigate CNS Hengyang (568) and fleet oiler CNS Weishanhu (887).

These are two small Type 054A is a multi-role frigates. With a supply ships to extend the fleet's range.

(🧵 2/10)

Lets examine arguments blown apart by Deepseek :

- Import tons of talent for bloated tech orgs
- More GPUs = moat
- Throwing more money = results
- Build it and they will come.

Success requires purpose and process, not just bricks and more resources.

Short 🧵 Importing talent is fine. If you know who you're importing. You need talented people. But you also need HR processes and leaders to id WHO you need.

But that didn't matter to big tech. More headcount = more power for managers. So they pressured for relaxed requirements.

For 11 days now, President Yoon of South Korea has been holed up in his residence. 42 days from declaring martial law.

This hasn’t got a lot of attention the Western media. But we need to look at this closely.

Lot of political red flags here.

🧵THREAD 1/n
We already know about Yoon’s coup attempt - declaring martial law and senting special forces to arrest legislators - while trying to provoke North Korea.

Since then, the ROK National Assembly has issued a warrant for his arrest and impeached the acting president.

Let's talk about what it would take to get back the Panama Canal.

There's political difficulties that prevent it:
- Full sovereignty given to Panama
- Abolition of the canal zone authority
- Full Operational Control of Panama

But there's also a way to justify it. 🧵

https://twitter.com/RadarFennec/status/1871523545588854861

So lets first talk about why its hard.

Sovereignty is the first problem. Torrijos–Carter Treaties explicitly stated in the U.S. jurisdiction over the canal zone would cease to exist. When the transition period from 1970 to 1999 ended? Full Panamanian sovereignty.

Last 24 hours have been wild for South Korea. A farcical declaration of martial law since 1979. Which failed under its own weight.

So what have I noticed? Let's go into this in more detail.🧵 The first thing is to notice is the timing. Its at night.

It’s a tactic to catch people off guard, create shock, and keep things chaotic. The police force isn’t fully manned. People can’t send events on social media in real time.
Prevents news from spreading across social media quickly.

Late at night also makes it harder for the legislature to gather quickly and respond - stopping them from taking action or making statements.

There's definitely a stagnation going on. With increasing chaos. Which is part of this cycle

There are 4 stagnation signs:
- End of innovation
- Rigid Social Norms
- Absence of debate
- Loss of vision and purpose

Let me explain.
🧵

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1849888709379805233

1/x
Innovation is the first sign. New art, architecture, philosophy, and science become rare. New ideas are viewed with suspicion and hostility. The safe patterns of the past are repeated: from political policies to art. It is a fear-driven refusal to adapt to changing times.

Why did Mao treat Puyi so well?

Mao was communist and Puyi was the last emperor of Qing. Complete opposites. But there's many pictures and they allowed him relative freedom.

The reason? Political continuity.
🧵

https://twitter.com/HistorylandHQ/status/1848355504189296962

1/x
Continuity is important in Chinese government. As dynasties changed, the new ruling dynasty would honor deposed emperor or his descendants.

The reason? To show continuity and establish legitimacy. This happened from Han to Qing.

People saying this is "post apocalyptic" are very used to American or Western suburbia kind of thinking. Where something new is built every year.

Asia is like this. Japan, Korea, etc. People don't rebuild older buildings. They're much nicer inside.

https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1844762683054117136

Most cities housing are like this. Tokyo, Seoul, Wuhan, Shanghai. We just have different eras from building booms. Mixed in with buildings from older periods.

It's not unsual to see an 80s apartment next to a older buildings

Very normal.

Dirty social media tactics often go under radar. They're used in conjunction with normal social media tactics.

Here's several I used as a marketing strategist: The Philippines Ploy.

If you can't get your marketing ads to get engagement? Serve it to the Philippines.

There's enough audience overlap with US for preferences. And English is the primary language of ads.

Good way to boost with organic ads.

People don't realize this, but the Cold War did massive benefits to the German economy well into the 90s. There was huge subsidizes and indirect investment with the NATO group of forces there. Gave it outsized importance.

https://twitter.com/blackwindmnt2/status/1794402310912696432

Countries that host foreign military bases often benefit from closer political ties with the country that provides the military presence. These improved relations can lead to favorable trade agreements and investment treaties.

The hosting country might receive economic aid, direct investments, and access to technology and infrastructure improvements, which in turn can boost the local economy.

The biggest skill you'll learn in your career? Learning to debate

You have to learn to debate other ppl to get an edge in public.

You also have to learn not to debate attention seekers.

The first has to be a polite ratio. You're not trying to convince them. The polite ratio is big. You have to show teeth. Ppl are testing you. Most of the time ppl are watching.

Trying to convince the ratio'd person is pointless. Or laying too many evidence on them.

The goal is to be to destroy their argument. In eyes of your audience.

How to find your way and grow stronger in times of chaos:

1. Have a purpose and vision.
2. Look at reality. Let ppl panic.
3. Find the right people.
4. Snap up resources now.
5. Calm in public. Panic in private.

Gonna break this down. 1. Purpose and vision.

This helps you prioritize. You know what you want. You're less bothered by things. And you know why.

Hard times go from a emotional thought to a factor in your plans.
Annoying people are humored.

Mistakes are measured by the progress towards a goal.

Every so often accounts here think multipolar world order = Peace.

Look at the 19th century. That was a multipolar world order. And certainly didn't mean peace. Most of us only remember the cold war which had bipolar world order. Or post 1991 with a unipolar one.

Unless you were born before 1945? You haven't seen a multipolar order.

Which is why so many geopol assumptions are cold war ones.

Wordcelling doesn't make you smart. Frameworks and theory without experience is dangerous.

Can always tell who in tech never worked with users or businesses.

If you want to win here's how⏬ Get to the point.

Get to it in the first 2 min. It creates a framework for the rest. You need ppl to follow along.

Make sure to think about the interest. No one cares unless it relates to them. Benefits up front.

The best boss I had was nicknamed Baba Yaga. John Wick 1 had come out.

And that lady did magic with clients and their reluctant dev and data teams.

Didn't force them. Got them admiring her. Here's things she did right

⏬ Spoke the language . She could speak in both the tech ppls and business ppls speak. Knew the right words and right questions.

Was constantly learning.

She could code switch. It gave her a lot of power. She could advocate the needs of both sides. And explain their needs.

Wordcels miss the big picture, clinging to details as the whole story. They use complex words and long sentences. Its very common tech and politics. They dress up their ideas to hide context. They prey on the idea that hard to understand = smart.

Lets breaking this down. Overemphasis on Details and Jargon. Wordcels focus excessively on intricate details and specialized jargon. They often miss the broader context or the big picture of the topic at hand. It may make it harder for others to grasp the essence.

When cornered, they attempt to reshift the conversation back to their knowledge. Then turn it into a nitpicking debate over facts, rather than looking at the larger topic.

Example: In a discussion about global trade agreements, a Wordcel might say, "It's imperative to consider the granular specifics of the bilateral trade agreements and their tariff schedules, rules of origin protocols, and antidumping duties rather than the broader implications of global trade dynamics and economic sovereignty."

It has lost the larger conversation. The conversation is needs to be about agreements affect international relations and economic stability.

National values exist, just as personal values do. Which is the result of a long series of history and culture. Global values is a nebulous invention of globalization.

It ends up forcing the rules of one nation or culture on another. Its better to make frameworks. This is a problem we often run into in making laws and regulation. Too strict, you will drive ppl to rebellion. Too lose, and you get the state the West is in.

Frameworks exist because it allows nations to adapt. The frame work for one cannot apply to another.

Learn weiqi if you want to do strategy. Learn chess if you want to learn tactics. Learn martial arts if you want to know how to apply both. Weiqi is better for strategy since it teaches you positioning. And how to focus on maneuvering over capturing. It teaches you strategic initiative and taking territory.

It's a conversation with the opponent.

Work tip:
Start developing frameworks or SOPs for what you're doing. It will save your ass. While the rest of your nutter coworkers are in a panic.

⬇️ The best way is to try and figure out frameworks to do things. How to approach a problem or situations. This helps you respond as quickly as possible. And provides a rough structure.

A power vacuum is always catastrophic. And has cascading effects. And wars, famine, and destruction as people fight to survive. Or for power.

It almost never brings peace. And anyone connected is affected. We experienced it in the Fall of Qing. As the dynasty lost power, crime, bandits, rebellion, and foreign intervention increased.

Peace didn't come to us. Nor any of the countries around us. It encouraged more turmoil and death.