Let's talk regional banks. And why they're a sign of an impending financial crisis.

We've seen this before in history. And there's a reason why they're a red flag.

A 🧵

https://twitter.com/great_martis/status/1978480255133422060

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There's community/regional banks are very different from a big bank:

- Profit comes from within region or industty
- Tied to the health of their local economy
- Core deposits are the funding source
- Diversification is concentrated

These are both good and bad.

The Saudi–Pakistani mutual defense pact is unprecedented.

Both have now committed in writing to defend one another. Which was kept strategically vague for decades.

But what is this treaty really, and how does it fit into the big picture?

[THREAD]🧵
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The first trait: it’s bilateral.

Bilateral = two parties, one-on-one. The deal runs only between Riyadh and Islamabad. Between them alone, so this isn't the start of some multipolar NATO.

Benefits is its direct, fast, and personal, which allows quick responses to crisis.

Popularity alone is not a political strategy.

Movements often confuse the ability to mobilize with the ability to rule. A state that governs by moods rules only until the next one arrives or crushes it.

But how did the French Revolution make this mistake? 🧵 To understand why, you have to look at what political order is. Its enduring legitimacy.

Revolutionaries often assume passion and popularity of ideals naturally equal political order.

Let's talk about signs an alliance is about to happen.
An alliance is more than a treaty and a photo-op.

There's four signs:
- Economic
- Strategic military
- Diplomatic
- Narrative similarity.

Its in writing. With mutual explicty guarantees.

Thread 🧵 1/x
Economics is the first area.

Think coordination. Co-financed development banks. Local currency settlements. Dual-use infrastructure.

Countries start insulating together in a bloc that reduces barriers to entry. With a governing body that mediates and sets rules.

Watch the carriers and the nuclear submarine patrols.

Nuclear-powered carrier strike groups extend endurance and keep pressure forward. Along with Marine expeditionary forces.

SSBN and SSN patrols stretch reach and lock down deterrence.

https://twitter.com/gonglei89/status/1963067557134619053

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Building power projection will take a few decades. Which is why Beijing is so careful to maintain a non intervention stance.

Power projection is critical. But the PLAN cannot sustain extended pr large scale blue water deployments.

Endurance is a major factor.

Crushing live trees isn't a banal thing.

There's a larger cultural, political, and legal dark dynamic behind this:

- Breaking cultural ties to land and terror
- Break claims to the land and justify legality
- Strategic cultural erasure.

Lets break this down.
🧵[Thread]

https://twitter.com/noplaceforsheep/status/1959150819166888192

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Lets talk first about the significance of the olive to Levantine culture. (Palestinian, Syrian, Lebanese, etc.).

In the Levant is a civilizational relic a living monument. They live over hundreds of years. With some olive groves that are 1000 years old.

Let's talk about the AI bubble. Warned about it. What gets affected if it pops:

- compute resellers and hyperscalers
- data companies
- AI startups (wrappers)
- data centers

Waited over a year to talk about this.

🧵[Thread]

https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1958338320939057574

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Compute resellers vanish first. GPUs and TPUs. They buy time/instances from someone else’s data center. Then resell it. They zero moat and make money from markups. Their whole business model: buy compute at bulk, chop it into smaller units, resell at a premium.

Diplomatic protocol tactics are underrated. In reality, it's a skill that's valuable in any diplomatic setting.

They fall under three main types:

- bridging
- persuading
- balancing

Here’s what they are. And how they're used.

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Bridging is the first one. You establish a connection with your counterpart(s) across the room. You remove tension by summit activities, room aesthetics, etc.

It’s the humanizing: creating a personal connection so leaders can relate, relax, and have a two-way dialogue.

Why Alaska is used again for negations? It's not just Trump and Putin meeting. There's diplomatic reasons:

- Meeting in the middle
- Distance from flashpoints
- Staging for graduated engagement
- Controlled access

A venue is a stage and a battlefield. Her's why.

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This isn't the first time Alaska has been used. Nixon for Japan. And Regan for the Pope. Most recently it was used during the tense 2021 China US summit during the Biden administration.

"Do not debate! Is one of my inventions"
Is a much lesser known quote from Deng Xiaoping.

Here's what it really means:
- Power must precede consensus
- Output over debate and signaling
- Strategic ambiguity allows reform and compromise

There's a bit to go into this
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After the Cultural Revolution, the PRC was institutionally shell-shocked. Factions of the CPC had torn into each other, paralyzing ministries and state capacity. A culture of fear replaced bureaucratic discipline. Signaling and slogans prevailed.

Deng inherited disorder.

Never would've guessed from the naval shipbuilding rates, formation of amphibious task forces, carrier production, military reforms, and others.

The list goes on and on since the 2010s.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1922293413988221025

The biggest hidden changes aren't only the weapons. Its also improvement in the command and control.

Big ones are the reorganization of the military theaters into military commands. Then formation of a joint staff in the Central Military Commission.

Both go a long way to improving logistics, procurement, sustainment, and joint coordination of the various services.

Why isn't China commenting or moving in Gaza?

What is the role that realpolitik plays into this - even though this is a major humanitarian crisis?

Let's talk about it. From a realpolitik angle.

🧵(Thread) 1. Why would China even consider intervening?

Gaza is a humanitarian catastrophe—thousands dead, cities destroyed, civilians trapped.

China sees that. But states don’t act on sympathy alone. They act when it serves their interests and when they have the force to make it count.

Gaza offers neither.
– No control over key energy routes.
– No impact on Taiwan, the South China Sea, or East Asia’s balance.
– No shift in U.S.-China competition.

Even if China wanted to intervene, it lacks the military presence and logistics to back it up. Taking a position without power behind it is meaningless.

And worse declaring a side openly means compromising diplomacy elsewhere.
– Support Israel? Alienate Iran, Saudi Arabia, Muslim partners.
– Support Hamas? Blow up ties with Israel, Western markets, Europe.

No payoff for a massive strategic loss. With a narrative that can be spun by the US that its a terrorist supporter.

Better to stay quiet, keep options open, and focus on where their interests

Let's step away from Ukraine for a bit. Talk about the Chinese task force south of Australia.

China has been sailing a three ship task force in international waters near NZ and AUS

Here's a thread of what you need to know:

🧵 1. What ships are involved?

The fleet is composed of three ships. CNS Zunyi (107), frigate CNS Hengyang (568) and fleet oiler CNS Weishanhu (887).

These are two small Type 054A is a multi-role frigates. With a supply ships to extend the fleet's range.

(🧵 2/10)

Lets examine arguments blown apart by Deepseek :

- Import tons of talent for bloated tech orgs
- More GPUs = moat
- Throwing more money = results
- Build it and they will come.

Success requires purpose and process, not just bricks and more resources.

Short 🧵 Importing talent is fine. If you know who you're importing. You need talented people. But you also need HR processes and leaders to id WHO you need.

But that didn't matter to big tech. More headcount = more power for managers. So they pressured for relaxed requirements.

For 11 days now, President Yoon of South Korea has been holed up in his residence. 42 days from declaring martial law.

This hasn’t got a lot of attention the Western media. But we need to look at this closely.

Lot of political red flags here.

🧵THREAD 1/n
We already know about Yoon’s coup attempt - declaring martial law and senting special forces to arrest legislators - while trying to provoke North Korea.

Since then, the ROK National Assembly has issued a warrant for his arrest and impeached the acting president.

Let's talk about what it would take to get back the Panama Canal.

There's political difficulties that prevent it:
- Full sovereignty given to Panama
- Abolition of the canal zone authority
- Full Operational Control of Panama

But there's also a way to justify it. 🧵

https://twitter.com/RadarFennec/status/1871523545588854861

So lets first talk about why its hard.

Sovereignty is the first problem. Torrijos–Carter Treaties explicitly stated in the U.S. jurisdiction over the canal zone would cease to exist. When the transition period from 1970 to 1999 ended? Full Panamanian sovereignty.

Last 24 hours have been wild for South Korea. A farcical declaration of martial law since 1979. Which failed under its own weight.

So what have I noticed? Let's go into this in more detail.🧵 The first thing is to notice is the timing. Its at night.

It’s a tactic to catch people off guard, create shock, and keep things chaotic. The police force isn’t fully manned. People can’t send events on social media in real time.
Prevents news from spreading across social media quickly.

Late at night also makes it harder for the legislature to gather quickly and respond - stopping them from taking action or making statements.

There's definitely a stagnation going on. With increasing chaos. Which is part of this cycle

There are 4 stagnation signs:
- End of innovation
- Rigid Social Norms
- Absence of debate
- Loss of vision and purpose

Let me explain.
🧵

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1849888709379805233

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Innovation is the first sign. New art, architecture, philosophy, and science become rare. New ideas are viewed with suspicion and hostility. The safe patterns of the past are repeated: from political policies to art. It is a fear-driven refusal to adapt to changing times.

Why did Mao treat Puyi so well?

Mao was communist and Puyi was the last emperor of Qing. Complete opposites. But there's many pictures and they allowed him relative freedom.

The reason? Political continuity.
🧵

https://twitter.com/HistorylandHQ/status/1848355504189296962

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Continuity is important in Chinese government. As dynasties changed, the new ruling dynasty would honor deposed emperor or his descendants.

The reason? To show continuity and establish legitimacy. This happened from Han to Qing.

People saying this is "post apocalyptic" are very used to American or Western suburbia kind of thinking. Where something new is built every year.

Asia is like this. Japan, Korea, etc. People don't rebuild older buildings. They're much nicer inside.

https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1844762683054117136

Most cities housing are like this. Tokyo, Seoul, Wuhan, Shanghai. We just have different eras from building booms. Mixed in with buildings from older periods.

It's not unsual to see an 80s apartment next to a older buildings

Very normal.

Dirty social media tactics often go under radar. They're used in conjunction with normal social media tactics.

Here's several I used as a marketing strategist: The Philippines Ploy.

If you can't get your marketing ads to get engagement? Serve it to the Philippines.

There's enough audience overlap with US for preferences. And English is the primary language of ads.

Good way to boost with organic ads.