Thread by @gregbagwell

The UK’s Carrier Strike Group is about to conduct a transit of the South China Sea after its time in Japan. It now finds itself having to manage a complex and changing diplomatic context. Is this crunch time for UK strategy & credibility in the region? - a🧵1/8

2/ The S. China Sea is a contested region because of China’s claim of a wider EEZ, demarked by the so-called 9-Dash line, and their “designs” on Taiwan. Their actions around Taiwan, in particular, are increasingly active, hostile and encroaching.

3/ This period is notable for the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting, where the ties between China, Russia & India were clear for all to see. It was followed by China’s biggest ever military parade

https://x.com/shanghaidaily/status/1963072453741314108/video/1

4/ US policy towards any and all of the SCO countries is unpredictable and worsening, especially in the case of India. Also, Trump’s tariffs are harsher against Indo-Pac region states - friend & foe, so it’s not clear how alliances will develop in the region.

5/ The UK is on the horns of a dilemma, with a major military deployment to the region, it is about to embark on a trade visit to China that takes on even greater relevance with stretched finances back home. There are rumours that the MoD & FCDO have differing views on options.

6/ Because those options are: 1️⃣ Transit CAG quietly, well clear of the Taiwan Straits. 2️⃣ Send at least one warship through the straits to conduct freedom of navigation (although we conducted one recently in June). China gets a vote too of course and they will respond.

7/ Hard core Maritime enthusiasts will vote for 2️⃣, but the only sensible option in the National Interest is 1️⃣. But regional actors are watching too, and the UK has to sail a fine line between upholding International Law, and not upsetting trade talks/relations with China.

8/ The UK is about to discover, that whilst you can use military deployments for soft power effect, you can’t ghost hard power under a soft power cloak as and when you choose. We should be ready for some Chinese taunting of any show of strength and regional ambition.