In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Estonian businessman, Oleg Ossinovski. He is best-known for his deep ties to Russian rail and energy networks, shady cross-border dealings, and for channeling his wealth into Estonian politics.
1/14
Oleg made his fortune via Spacecom Trans & Skinest Rail, both deeply tied to Russia’s rail system. Most of this is through Globaltrans Investments PLC, a Cyprus-based firm with 62% held via Spacecom and tens of millions in yearly profits.
2/14
Ossinovski’s Russian-linked ventures made him Estonia’s richest man in 2014, with an estimated fortune of ~€300M. His business empire stretched across railways, oil via Alexela shares, and Russian bitumen imports from Help-Oil, a supplier to the Defense Ministry.
3/14
When the sanctions hit in 2022, Oleg “left” the Russian market — on paper. In reality, he transferred his Russian rail businesses to his sister Veronika Osinovskaya. Her company SIA Vero Trade kept importing train parts from Russia with at least 31 shipments in 2023.
4/14
Russian customs data shows Ossinovski-linked firms carried out 151 shipments from Russia in 2023, moving bearings, brake systems, seals and electrical components. These flows were routed through company entities registered in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Georgia.
5/14
His former company, now Vero Logistics (run by a close relative), hauled €777M worth of iron and iron ore from Russia into the EU in 2022–23 — much of it from Russian oligarch Usmanov’s Metalloinvest. This proves that his Russia trade stayed massive even after sanctions.
6/14
Meanwhile, prosecutors in Latvia are demanding a 4-year prison sentence and a 3-year ban on public tenders for Oleg Ossinovski over alleged bribery linked to locomotive sales. They’ve also called to confiscate half a million euros seized during his & his associate’s arrest.
7/14
Oleg has since passed the torch to his son, Jevgeni. In 2011, he donated €30k to the Social Democratic Party for his son’s first Parliament run. After local elections, another €50k followed, helping launch a career that led to ministerial posts and Tallinn’s mayoralty.
8/14
Jevgeni presents himself as a “bridge” between Estonia’s Russian speakers and the mainstream. His policies on integration and voting rights sound inclusive — but his campaign seed money came from Russian-linked business wealth.
9/14
Jevgeni has strongly argued against stripping local election rights from Russian citizens and “gray passport” holders in Estonia. According to him, most are loyal residents, and punishing them collectively would weaken security and undermine democratic principles.
10/14
“Gray passports” are aliens passports issued in Estonia to stateless residents, mostly Soviet-era settlers and their descendants. Given Estonia’s history of occupation under the USSR, suspicion toward gray passport holders and Russia apologists is hardly surprising.
11/14
I fail to see the logic in his statement, but Russian state media love people like him: they frame such figures as proof that Russian-linked elites can thrive in NATO states. They’re props for so-called ‘positive’ propaganda: ‘Russian heritage is no barrier in the Baltics.’
12/14
Ossinovski’s strategy has been seen across the Baltics since the 2000s:
– Build wealth via Russian state-linked industry;
– Channel it into politics through family ties;
– Rebrand as a “bridge-builder”;
– Let Kremlin media claim it proves the West’s fears are unfounded.
13/14
In Oleg’s case, we see the full package of Russian influence: shady deals, corruption, dirty Kremlin money, sanctions evasion by handing assets to relatives, and using funds to influence local politics.
A textbook case of oligarchy at work in Europe.
14/14
The 2nd edition of “Vatnik Soup — The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation” is officially out!
What you see happening here is coordinated strategic communication by the Trump cult. Elon’s baby mama and former MAGA influencer Ashley St. Clair explained this ecosystem in a long video. They have built platforms where people can find narratives to spread and get paid for doing so.
Even though the system technically breaks the platform's ToS, this is perfectly fine for @nikitabier and the rest of the X crew, because Elon pays their salaries and this is part of his election interference machinery.
If you wanna know how the system works, read this:
Here’s Ashley’s video, where she explains how the system works. She was immediately attacked by various MAGA actors, which suggests that what she said hit a nerve.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, we introduce Yanis Varoufakis, a Greek economist and politician. He’s best known for rising to power at the height of the Greek debt crisis, not solving anything but endearing himself to the left, and using his fame to promote Russian imperialism.
1/20
Born in 1961 in Athens, Varoufakis studied economics in the UK and built an academic career in Australia, the US, and Europe. His early work focused on game theory, political economy, and critiques of capitalism.
2/20
Presenting himself as the fearless, unorthodox economist willing to confront the EU’s “neoliberal” elites, he rose to prominence during Greece’s debt crisis. At its height in 2015, he was appointed finance minister under the left-wing Syriza government of Alexis Tsipras.
In this 8th Debunk of the Day, we’ll discuss complaints about US financing of NATO, in particular how the US allegedly pays for European defense, leading to calls for a US withdrawal from the Alliance — which would only make it easier for Putin to invade more countries.
1/7
NATO by itself costs peanuts. In fact, the core of NATO is a principle, an agreement, that ideally costs nothing. The main cost is defense spending, which the US is eagerly doing anyway: Trump has just announced a 50% increase in military spending for his “Department of War”. 2/7
To sow division and thereby weaken the Alliance, vatniks deliberately mix up different figures, such as contributions to the NATO common budget, with defense spending. And US military spending has been huge by the sheer fact that the US is the world’s largest economy.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, we’ll talk about why we’re doing this: why we think Ukraine is so important and why we believe that souping vatniks and debunking their propaganda narratives is so crucial to counter Russia’s & their allies’ wars of aggression and achieve real peace.
1/20
War is expensive, and Russia is not a rich country that could afford this: Hospitals? Roads? Plumbing? No: everything into terror and destruction.
But not only that. There is a 2nd item in the Russian state budget that remains strong no matter what:
Manufacturing support for that terror and destruction. Propaganda. Vatniks. “Innocent” travel bloggers. “Independent” journalists. “Patriotic” politicians. Russia spends hundreds of billions of rubles a year ($5 billion) on this, and that kind of money buys you A LOT of BS.
In this second (and possibly last) Basiji Soup, we’ll explore how the Islamic Republic of Iran has prepared for a conflict with the US and Israel. We won’t cover the military aspects, but another kind of war — information warfare.
1/20
In the 1st Basiji Soup, we souped the Islamic Republic, its disinformation operations, its hypocrisy, its support of terrorism including Russia’s, its (one-sided?) relationship with Putin, and the mass protests against it that started two months ago:
The Internet blackout has been crucial in allowing the regime to cover up its massacre of the protesters and especially the scope of it, making it difficult to assess the number of victims. They went to great lengths to jam Starlink, after having made its use illegal.
In this 7th Debunk of the Day, we’ll expose the “Chickenhawk” fallacy. The chickenhawk accusation or the “go to the front!” imperative is a dishonest attempt to silence anyone supporting Ukraine by pushing them to go fight. A barely hidden death wish, as it’s always uttered… 1/5
…with zero regard for who you are or what your personal circumstances might be — you could already be there, on your way there, a veteran, or unable to fight. More broadly, not everyone can or should be a soldier, just as not everyone can or should be a policeman or a nurse. 2/5
Yet a society still needs those things to be done, and the fact that not everyone can go to medical school or fight crime does not mean that we have to surrender to invaders and criminals, nor that we cannot all have an opinion on healthcare. 3/5