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More from @samuraipips358

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 5

You are a part of the system that must stay consistent to let probability do the work 🧵

Peace of mind in trading doesn’t come from 'winning'.
It comes from knowing that every win and every loss is already accounted for in the edge you’ve prepared.
🧵1/5

2/5
Many people misunderstand what a trader’s job really is.

Your job is not to win the next trade.
Your role is to follow the rules of a strategy with an edge consistently across a large sample size, to build that large sample under the same conditions, and to let the law of large numbers surface the edge.
Your most basic yet most important role is to be part of the system and to keep doing the same thing again and again with consistency.

3/5
Most people can’t do this because their thinking is short-term and they want to win the trade right in front of them.
That urge is what makes trading hard.

You cannot control whether the next trade wins or loses.
Even a strong strategy loses, and even a careless entry can win.
But a strong strategy will be profitable over the long run.
Short-term results are influenced by randomness, but long-term results become reliable.

However, to make long-term results reliable, one condition must hold: do not change the conditions that define your large sample size.
Only under consistent conditions does the law of large numbers do its work.

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 4

What monthly return should you aim for? 🧵

Most people care deeply about how much they can make in a month.
They also care about the monthly returns of other people’s strategies.
But ironically, it’s that focus on monthly return that keeps you from succeeding.
🧵1/5

2/5
I occasionally get questions like “What monthly percent should I aim for?”
But monthly return is not something you target.

Monthly returns vary with the risk each trader takes and the performance of the strategy.
On top of that, the number of trade opportunities is market‑dependent, and results over a short window like one month are heavily influenced by randomness.

Above all, “one month” is a human convenience, while probability doesn’t care about calendar periods.
It cares about sample size.

Thinking in terms of an arbitrary one‑month window contradicts probabilistic thinking.

As with USDJPY this August, which I trade, it’s common for a month to be mostly range‑bound with virtually no trade opportunities.
Even if that month offers few entries and you only take a handful of trades, it still gets treated as just another “one month.”
Plenty of people then opine on the win rate and performance of that tiny sample size within that month.

3/5
Don’t target a monthly percent.
Instead, trust the positive expectancy of a strategy validated on a large pre‑test sample size, and focus on compounding that expectancy over the long run.

Trading will never work if short‑term thinking, urges, and wishes overpower consistency.
In other words, as long as you’re fixated on “how much can I make,” you won’t succeed.

What you should be asking is whether you acted consistently and followed your rules today.

Following rules means being able to lose according to the rules, and to do nothing according to the rules when that’s the right decision.
If your strategy has an edge, results will follow as long as you do just that.

And “later” will be slower than you think.

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 1

The rules exist "to lose by the rules" 🧵

Some say, "Since rules don’t win every time, you must break them." That’s wrong.
Rules keep conditions consistent, hand outcomes to probability, and let it work.
They are not for winning one-off trades in front of you.
🧵1/5

2/5
Another person said, "If following the rules meant you win them all, that would be a holy grail, and since no such thing exists, you need exceptions instead of following every rule," which is a total misread of trading and a sign they need to relearn probability.

Rules never guarantee a 100% win rate.
I have long said that "losing in accordance with the rules" is itself the edge.

A strategy with an edge is one that leaves profit when you keep generating wins and losses naturally by following the rules.
By definition, causing losses according to the rules is part of that edge.

The way your rules prescribe losing is what ensures profit in the aggregate.

3/5
Trying to win the trade in front of you is not a "game of probabilities."
It is a "game of wins and losses."

A "game of probabilities" means you keep your behavior consistent, apply the law of large numbers to a large sample size gathered under the same conditions, and extract the edge.
If your behavior is inconsistent, probability will not work.

Rules do not exist to win the trade in front of you.
They exist to keep your behavior consistent so that probability can work through the large sample size created by that consistency.
Understand this.

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 31

Redefine "trader" and commit to consistency 🧵

You are not the one who wins or loses any trade.
You are the executor: build the scenario, check the conditions, and click as planned.
🧵1/5

2/5
Remember only this:

・You are a scenario-execution machine.
・Your opinion is irrelevant. Even if you think “it might go down,” if the rules say buy, you buy.
・The only place you can play an active role is in preparation.
・You have no right to pick and choose signals. If a signal appears, you take every one of them.
・You are not responsible for wins or losses. Your responsibility is only in whether you stayed faithful to the process.

3/5
The only place where you can be active is in preparation.

There, you act in boss mode, building strategies with an edge from a long-term perspective.
You run experiments, trials, and tests, preparing thoroughly with that long-term view in mind.

But once preparation is complete and it comes time for daily trading, you are no longer the boss—you are the employee.
You must follow the rules that the boss designed with a long-term outlook, without caring about short-term wins, losses, or daily P\&L.

If there are fewer customers in the store today, you cannot just break the rules and change the price tags on your own.
The small daily losses are already calculated as costs by the boss, and even after accounting for them, the strategy is designed to remain profitable over time.
An employee who cannot follow the rules is a risk to the business itself—and will be fired.

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 29

Good trades are boring—but “don’t feel bored” 🧵

A good trade that follows the rules is often described as boring.
But the moment you find yourself repeating “boring, boring” over and over, it’s proof that you’re seeking stimulation, and that’s a mistake.
🧵1/5

2/5
Consistency is absolutely essential for probability to play out.

From this perspective, trades that follow the rules or repeat the same process are often described as “boring.”
But constantly saying “boring, boring” is the wrong kind of boredom—it’s really just a reflection of your craving for stimulation.

To truly reach the right state, your perspective must shift to the long term.
You have to let go completely of the idea that you can control short-term outcomes and fully accept your true responsibility and role.
In that case, you’ll have no expectations about immediate results, you won’t crave stimulation, and you won’t feel bored at all.

Think of it like weight training.
Someone who truly understands weight training doesn’t get angry or feel stimulated just because their muscles aren’t visibly bigger right after a workout.
That’s because they’re thinking long-term from the start.
That’s what it means to approach something with a long-term perspective.

The phrase “good trades are boring” works as an antithesis to the stimulation-soaked short-term thinking behind bad trades.
It’s only an “expression.”
Actually feeling bored is dangerous.

3/5
Your job in trading is to keep functioning perfectly as part of the system.
You must not “get involved” in anything beyond what your role requires.

In any system, you yourself are the greatest risk.
– Breaking the rules to avoid a loss right in front of you
– Taking trades outside the rules to recover from a previous loss
– Hesitating to enter even when a signal appears because of trauma from the last loss
– Misreading a losing streak as a flaw in the system and “tinkering” with it out of good intentions
– Looking at charts when you shouldn’t and starting to see everything as a setup
– Taking at face value what an influential trader said on social media and closing your position prematurely
– Watching P\&L during a trade and deciding based on the number in front of you rather than the rules

These things happen because you interfere with the trading process when you shouldn’t.

Your job is to keep functioning perfectly as part of the system.

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 28

"I took a lot of losses today, so I’ll be more cautious tomorrow." 🧵

It may seem good, but treating wins as good and losses as bad ties you to short-term randomness, trapping you in an endless "improvement loop" trying to adapt to it.
🧵1/5

2/5
I’ve often heard traders say, “I lost a lot, so from now on I’ll be more cautious.”
It may sound like good judgment, but in this context, the only information is the outcome—win or loss.
What’s missing is the most important part: whether the result came from following the rules.

In other words, chances are high that you’re judging quality based solely on outcomes.

Even if you stick to a strategy with an edge, losing streaks will inevitably happen.
That’s natural.
What matters is sticking to the rules on the very next trade as well.

Short-term results are shaped by randomness, but it’s precisely by remaining consistent that those short-term fluctuations average out and your strategy’s true edge is revealed.

The point is not to change something because you won or lost, but to remain consistent no matter what.

3/5
Of course, if you’ve been breaking your rules and taking unnecessary losses, then saying, “From now on I’ll be careful to follow my rules,” makes sense.

The real focus should be not on wins and losses, but on whether you followed your rules.

In that case, your expression would more likely be: “Recently I haven’t been following my rules, so I’ll be more mindful to stick to them going forward.”

But the mindset of “Because I lost, I’ll do X” means you’re letting results dictate your next move.
That synchronizes your actions with short-term randomness.
Which means your actions themselves become random.

Probability can’t work that way.

And the danger is that even while losing consistency, you convince yourself you’ve “learned from losing” or “improved,” which makes it all the more insidious.

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