It's worse than you think:
After a SECOND data revision, the US went from "adding" 147,000 jobs in June 2025, to LOSING -13,000 jobs.
Cumulative payrolls have now officially been revised down by -1.1 MILLION jobs since February 2022.
What is happening here?
(a thread)
After a SECOND data revision, the US went from "adding" 147,000 jobs in June 2025, to LOSING -13,000 jobs.
Cumulative payrolls have now officially been revised down by -1.1 MILLION jobs since February 2022.
What is happening here?
(a thread)
This is completely broken.
If you take a look at NET revisions just for 2025, the US has seen -482,000 jobs revised out of the initially reported data.
This is roughly equivalent to the entire population of Atlanta, GA.
All revised out of just 2025's data year-to-date.
If you take a look at NET revisions just for 2025, the US has seen -482,000 jobs revised out of the initially reported data.
This is roughly equivalent to the entire population of Atlanta, GA.
All revised out of just 2025's data year-to-date.
In August 2024, this issue began gaining some publicity.
This was when the BLS revised 12-month job growth down by a massive -818,000 jobs.
It marked the largest downward revision since 2008 in an economy where the Fed was calling for a "soft landing."
It's getting worse.
This was when the BLS revised 12-month job growth down by a massive -818,000 jobs.
It marked the largest downward revision since 2008 in an economy where the Fed was calling for a "soft landing."
It's getting worse.
Last month, the US revised -258,000 jobs out of the June and May jobs report.
If you factor in the revisions from yesterday, June fell by another -27,000 jobs, for a total of -285,000.
This now marks the LARGEST negative 2-month net revision in US history, outside of 2020.
If you factor in the revisions from yesterday, June fell by another -27,000 jobs, for a total of -285,000.
This now marks the LARGEST negative 2-month net revision in US history, outside of 2020.
In exactly 3 days, we will receive this data for the 12-months ending March 2025.
Estimates range from -500,000 to up to -950,000 jobs set to be revised OUT of reported data.
If Goldman Sachs' top end estimate of -950,000 revisions occurs, it would be the largest since 2010.
Estimates range from -500,000 to up to -950,000 jobs set to be revised OUT of reported data.
If Goldman Sachs' top end estimate of -950,000 revisions occurs, it would be the largest since 2010.
The even bigger issue is that confidence in economic data has been lost.
The post-COVID expansion period saw 60+ months of consecutive payroll gains, the 2nd longest streak in history.
After June's double-revision, this streak has ENDED.
But, is the data even accurate?
The post-COVID expansion period saw 60+ months of consecutive payroll gains, the 2nd longest streak in history.
After June's double-revision, this streak has ENDED.
But, is the data even accurate?
In July 2025, a poll was conducted regarding the reliability of US economic data.
89% of economists that were polled agreed that the reliability of this data is a "big problem."
In fact, we no longer base our analysis on initially reported jobs data.
We wait for revisions.
89% of economists that were polled agreed that the reliability of this data is a "big problem."
In fact, we no longer base our analysis on initially reported jobs data.
We wait for revisions.
In August, 63% of consumers expected higher unemployment over the next 12 months, the third-highest reading since 2008.
This has been a leading indicator for the job market.
This suggests the 3-month average of payrolls could fall to -50,000 to -100,000 in the coming months.
This has been a leading indicator for the job market.
This suggests the 3-month average of payrolls could fall to -50,000 to -100,000 in the coming months.
We are in the midst of another major shift in the macroeconomy.
The implications of these shifts on stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable.
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The implications of these shifts on stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable.
Want to see how we are doing it?
Subscribe to access our premium analysis below:
thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe
The reality of these massive downward revisions is they have put the Fed behind the 8-ball.
The Fed will play catch-up again, with markets pricing in 3 cuts by year-end.
Rate cuts are coming into inflation.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
The Fed will play catch-up again, with markets pricing in 3 cuts by year-end.
Rate cuts are coming into inflation.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
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