Thread by @KobeissiLetter

It's worse than you think:

After a SECOND data revision, the US went from "adding" 147,000 jobs in June 2025, to LOSING -13,000 jobs.

Cumulative payrolls have now officially been revised down by -1.1 MILLION jobs since February 2022.

What is happening here?

(a thread)

This is completely broken.

If you take a look at NET revisions just for 2025, the US has seen -482,000 jobs revised out of the initially reported data.

This is roughly equivalent to the entire population of Atlanta, GA.

All revised out of just 2025's data year-to-date.

In August 2024, this issue began gaining some publicity.

This was when the BLS revised 12-month job growth down by a massive -818,000 jobs.

It marked the largest downward revision since 2008 in an economy where the Fed was calling for a "soft landing."

It's getting worse.

Last month, the US revised -258,000 jobs out of the June and May jobs report.

If you factor in the revisions from yesterday, June fell by another -27,000 jobs, for a total of -285,000.

This now marks the LARGEST negative 2-month net revision in US history, outside of 2020.

In exactly 3 days, we will receive this data for the 12-months ending March 2025.

Estimates range from -500,000 to up to -950,000 jobs set to be revised OUT of reported data.

If Goldman Sachs' top end estimate of -950,000 revisions occurs, it would be the largest since 2010.

The even bigger issue is that confidence in economic data has been lost.

The post-COVID expansion period saw 60+ months of consecutive payroll gains, the 2nd longest streak in history.

After June's double-revision, this streak has ENDED.

But, is the data even accurate?

In July 2025, a poll was conducted regarding the reliability of US economic data.

89% of economists that were polled agreed that the reliability of this data is a "big problem."

In fact, we no longer base our analysis on initially reported jobs data.

We wait for revisions.

In August, 63% of consumers expected higher unemployment over the next 12 months, the third-highest reading since 2008.

This has been a leading indicator for the job market.

This suggests the 3-month average of payrolls could fall to -50,000 to -100,000 in the coming months.

We are in the midst of another major shift in the macroeconomy.

The implications of these shifts on stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable.

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The reality of these massive downward revisions is they have put the Fed behind the 8-ball.

The Fed will play catch-up again, with markets pricing in 3 cuts by year-end.

Rate cuts are coming into inflation.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.