Honza Černý Profile picture
Sep 7 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Thread: The U.S. Banks’ Silver Short Implosion 🧵

1/
🚨 Big news from the COMEX silver market:
U.S. banks are slashing their short positions at a record pace. What does it mean for silver’s future? Let’s break it down…

Source: From Ed Steer report Image
2/
📉 According to the September Bank Participation Report:
5 major U.S. banks now hold only 13,779 net short contracts in silver — down from 25,916 in August.

That’s a 47.5% month-over-month decline — the smallest short position since June 2019.
3/
Their share of total open interest?
👉 Just 8.7% — and possibly even lower after the report’s cut-off.

For years, these banks have been the backbone of COMEX shorting. Now, they’re pulling back
4/
🌍 Including all 24 reporting banks (U.S. + foreign):

Net short = 40.1% of total open interest

Down from 44.6% just a month ago

This marks a broad retreat from short exposure.
5/
💡 Why are the banks backing off? Possible reasons:

🔥 Exploding physical demand (ETF inflows, mint shortages, record coin sales)
6/ 🏭 Silver as a critical mineral for energy, tech & defense

🇨🇳 China’s pressure on commodities & supply chains

📉 Weakening economy — shorting is too risky

🪙 Gold rallying hard — silver usually follows
7/
📈 If U.S. banks are exiting their shorts, it could mean only one thing:
The market is preparing for a major upside move.

The old playbook is breaking down.
The floor under silver keeps rising
8/
💥 Bottom line:
The U.S. banks’ silver short implosion is a bullish signal.

When the “paper walls” crumble, the physical market will speak loudest.
#Silver #SilverSqueeze

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More from @honzacern1

Aug 23
Thread: “A Central Bank Just Bought Silver?!”

1/ Which central bank just bought SLV?

The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA).

In its Q2 2025 13F filing it disclosed 932,000 shares of SLV (~$30.6M) and 203,700 shares of SIL (~$9.8M). That’s a clear signal on the radar. Image
2/ Important note: A 13F = investment portfolio filing, not official FX reserves. Still, it’s unusual to see a central bank directly exposed to silver through ETFs.
3/ Demand is roaring: Industrial silver demand hit a record 680.5 Moz in 2024 — the 4th year in a row. Drivers: solar PV, electronics, autos, and grids.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 21
1/ UK long #bonds are flashing red: 30-yr gilt ~5.57% today -near 27-year highs. Not a fire yet, but the smoke is everywhere. If the UK is the first domino, what does it mean for metals?

For #silver stackers: time to fasten seatbelts. Image
2/ The curve now: 2Y ~3.97% • 10Y ~4.71% • 30Y ~5.57%. Investors demand extra premium for decades of UK debt.

Translation: rising doubt about long-term fiscal discipline and inflation control.
3/ When governments pay more to roll debt they must: issue more, tax more, or inflate more. All three dilute purchasing power. That’s tailwind for scarce monetary assets.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 9
1/
📈 The top 10% largest US stocks now make up a record 76% of the entire US equity market.

That’s more concentrated than:
– The Dot-Com Bubble (73%)
– The 1930s Great Depression (75%)

We are in uncharted territory. 🧵 Image
2/
When market power is this concentrated, you don’t have a “broad” market anymore — just a handful of giants pulling the entire index.

If they fall, everything falls.
3/
Now combine that with this:
📊 Buffett Indicator (Market Cap-to-GDP) = 210%
That’s “Significantly Overvalued” territory.
Even Buffett himself says over 200% is a danger zone.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 9
1/
Yes, we’ve discussed this topic before -
but I believe it’s important to bring it up again, this time with details taken directly from Donald Trump’s Executive Order.

What’s written in black and white makes the picture even clearer — and more alarming. 🧵 Image
2/
🚨 The White House just signed an Executive Order to “Democratize” 401(k) investments.

Sounds nice, right?

Here’s what it really means and why it could turn millions of Americans’ retirement savings into a Wall Street casino.
3/
The EO opens the door for 401(k) retirement plans (used by over 90 million Americans) to invest in:
Private equity

Real estate & infrastructure projects

Commodities

Digital assets (including crypto)

“Lifetime income” products

💡 Commodities like gold and silver aren’t that hard to understand.

But why let a fund hold them for you with fees and paper claims - when you can own and manage them yourself?
Read 13 tweets
Aug 8
🧵1/
💥 Is LBMA in trouble?

The U.S. is now shortening the gold supply chain.
Instead of London → Switzerland → New York,
the goal is to bring it all home.
Lower costs, more control...

…and another nail in London’s coffin.👇 Image
2/
Gold destined for COMEX typically flows through:
🇬🇧 LBMA (pricing) →
🇨🇭 Switzerland (refining) →
🇺🇸 New York (delivery)
This setup made sense decades ago.
Today? It's overly complex, expensive, and slow.
3/
China runs a tight, efficient system:
SGE (spot) + SHFE (futures) – both in one country.
Directly connected to refiners and banks.

The West? Still dependent on London & Swiss refiners.

The U.S. just said: "No more."
Read 10 tweets
Aug 8
🧵1/

🚨 UBS just dropped a warning:
U.S. tariffs on large gold bars (1 kg & 100 oz) could spark serious funding stress in global bullion markets.

Let’s unpack what’s happening - and why this might ALSO shake the silver market. 👇 Image
2/
The U.S. just slapped tariffs on large gold bars — the same bars used in wholesale markets and in "EFP" trades.

What’s EFP?

🔄 Exchange for Physical: a swap between futures and physical metal (and vice versa).
Standard practice in global bullion trade.
3/
Traders often run “short EFP” positions:
– Sell futures contracts
– Commit to deliver physical gold later (often in London)

But now, tariffs make that delivery into the U.S. more expensive. 💰

Many traders may unwind these short EFPs instead.
Read 10 tweets

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