Honza Černý Profile picture
🍌🦍 Stacking metal. Tracking lies. Tweeting truth. ⚡
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Dec 7 13 tweets 2 min read
🔥 THREAD: US Small Businesses Are Breaking — And Silver Knows Why Image 1/
US small business bankruptcies just hit an all-time high.

2,221 filings under Subchapter V — the program designed to prevent small firms from dying.

If this is what “no recession” looks like… I don’t want to see the real one.
Dec 7 7 tweets 2 min read
🚨 The LBMA “Silver Surge”: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

Over the past three months, LBMA claims its silver vaults have suddenly gained 83.7 million ounces.
That’s 2,600 metric tons.

To put this in perspective:
That is the equivalent of two large silver mines magically appearing — without a single miner, refinery, or logistics company noticing.

In real commodity markets, that simply does not happen.

Below is what the data actually tells us. 1. Such a massive “increase in inventories” is statistically impossible

83.7 million ounces is not a rounding error.
It’s a global-scale event — the kind that would hit mining news, industrial procurement channels, and bullion trade desks everywhere.

Yet the global market saw zero corresponding physical flows.

When numbers leap like this without real-world evidence, it’s not supply — it’s accounting.
Dec 7 16 tweets 3 min read
🧵When metal prices are at record highs
but CAPEX is down 86%…

something is coming.

This should be impossible — and yet it’s happening.
Here’s the part of the story nobody talks about. Image 1/

Gold at $4,200
Silver at nearly $60
… and mining CAPEX is still at one of the lowest levels in history.

Yes — this is how a supply crisis looks before it gets priced in.

Via @TaviCosta Image
Dec 6 15 tweets 2 min read
1/ 🧵 EXPLAINED: “BRICS gold-backed currency” (the UNIT) — and why stackers should care.

Lots of noise. Some signal. Here’s the clean version.👇 Image 2/ First: BRICS has NOT officially adopted a single common currency (despite years of headlines). Even BRICS officials have repeatedly emphasized national-currency settlement over a new shared currency.
Dec 6 13 tweets 3 min read
🧵 THREAD: Silver, Simulation, and the System Glitch Nobody Talks About

1/
Financial markets today feel less like “price discovery”…

and more like simulation management.
Paper promises everywhere.

Real metal nowhere.
Sounds familiar? Image
Image
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2/
In that sense, the Matrix isn’t just a movie.
It’s the perfect metaphor for the paper silver markets:
illusion of abundance
endless code

and the belief that “everything is fine”…
until one line of data exposes the glitch.
Dec 6 10 tweets 2 min read
🧵 THREAD: What the CFTC COT Delay Really Means (and why stackers should care)

1/
The CFTC just announced something unprecedented:
They’re delaying future COT reports because they must finish pastones first.

This isn’t just bureaucracy.
This is a market signal. 2/
Reminder:

The COT (Commitments of Traders) report is the X-ray of the futures market.

It shows:

who’s adding big shorts
who’s taking physical-leaning longs commercial hedging behavior when the paper market tightens and when someone is trying to hide footprints

When the X-ray goes dark → transparency disappears.
Dec 6 9 tweets 2 min read
🔥 THREAD: Silver Is Quietly Stealing Gold’s Throne

1/
For years, silver stackers were mocked.

“Industrial metal”
“Too volatile”
“Poor man’s gold”

And now?

Mainstream media is finally catching up.
Bloomberg just admitted something huge. 👇 Image 2/
In the last 3 years, silver outperformed gold by an insane margin:
+98% in 1 year

+130% in 2 years

+173% in 3 years

This didn’t happen by accident.

It happened because the physical market is screaming.
Dec 5 6 tweets 2 min read
THREAD: How hard is silver manipulation right now?
And why the price holding this strong is the biggest red flag for the banks.

1/
Look at the volumes.

COMEX is throwing hundreds of millions of paper ounces at the market every single day.

Futures + options volume at levels that make zero sense when physical inventories are near historic lows.Image
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2/
This is not trading.
This is suppression.
A deliberate attempt to drown the price under a tidal wave of synthetic ounces that don’t exist.
Dec 5 15 tweets 3 min read
THREAD 🧵: CME “Daily Delivery Notices” aren’t boring PDFs.

They’re the receipt printer of the real metal market.
If you’re a stacker, this is where you look — not at the squiggly price line.

1/
First rule: “STOPPED” = someone took delivery.
That’s the line where paper turns into physical.
Second rule: “ISSUED = delivered out.”

So when big names are stopping… they’re not “trading.” They’re loading the truck.Image
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2/
On this report, the headline isn’t one metal.
It’s the pattern across metals:
✅ Gold
✅ Copper
✅ Silver
✅ Palladium
When the same class of institutions is taking everything, that’s not a coincidence. That’s a posture.
Dec 4 11 tweets 2 min read
1/
Something BIG just happened on COMEX.
Not in price…
but in deliveries.

And that’s where the real story always hides.

565 silver delivery notices were filed in a single day.
That’s 2.8 million ounces standing for delivery. Image
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2/
Who took the silver?
Not retail.
Not algos.
Not tourists.

But the giants:

BofA — 401 STOPPED
JP Morgan — 342 STOPPED (1 issued)
Marex Spec — 128 STOPPED

RBC — 80 STOPPED (25 issued)

Scotia, StoneX, BNP also loading up.

These aren’t people who “speculate.”
These are firms who prepare.
Dec 4 5 tweets 1 min read
1️⃣ SLV just turned into a silver-vacuum.
BlackRock grabbed 4.8M new SLV shares and JPM shoveled in 4.2M oz (~130 tons).

That metal isn’t coming from COMEX — it’s LBMA’s free float getting eaten alive. 2️⃣ Borrow fee still only 0.99%.

No massive shorts, no AP panic, no “SLV dumpster fire”…
Yet the physical is vanishing anyway.

Stackers know what that means: the real squeeze is silent.
Dec 4 11 tweets 2 min read
🧵 THREAD: Something BIG Is Happening on COMEX (Dec ’25 & Mar ’26) 1/
Silver deliveries for December 2025 are exploding.

What started as a few hundred contracts suddenly turned into hundreds per day.
We’re now looking at 672+ requests… and climbing.

Remember:
👉 1 contract = 5,000 oz
👉 672 contracts = 3.36 million ounces
👉 And still EARLY.
Dec 3 12 tweets 3 min read
🧵 THREAD: Something BIG Just Broke on the COMEX — And Silver Stackers Need to See This 👇 Image 1️⃣ We are only 3 days into December… and 46.6 MILLION ounces have already been pulled from COMEX.

That’s nearly HALF of all free-float silver on the exchange — gone.

This has never happened this early in a delivery month.

Not in 2011.
Not in 2020.
Not in 2021.
This is different.

🔥 Very different.
Dec 3 10 tweets 2 min read
🔥 THREAD: Something Just Broke in the U.S. Labor Market 🔥

1/
ADP just printed –32,000 jobs.
Forecast was +5,000.
Previous month +47,000.

This isn’t a slowdown.
This is a break in the system. Image 2/
In July, ADP was +104K.
Today we’re at –32K.

A collapse of 136,000 jobs in just four months.
This is how recessions announce themselves — quietly, then suddenly.
Dec 3 10 tweets 1 min read
🧵 THREAD — When the system starts defending the indefensible, you know silver is waking up

1/
We’re suddenly seeing a wave of excuses about silver — the kind that only appear when a market is under real stress. Image 2/
New narrative:
“Silver lost its financial role.”

Interesting timing, considering inventories are bleeding and demand is hitting from both sides.
Dec 3 11 tweets 2 min read
🧵 THREAD — China just told you the truth about silver (by accident)

1/
China’s SGE/SHFE data for Dec 3 just dropped.
And wow… the mask slipped.

Silver up on both Chinese markets.
Vaults bleeding again.
Narratives melting even faster than inventories. Image 2/
SHFE silver vaults today: +32,001 kg
SGE weekly vaults: –28,680 kg

Translation:
They “added” on one side… because they’re running out on the other.

Classic shuffle the bars so no one notices the hole.

We’ve seen this movie before.
Dec 2 13 tweets 2 min read
🧵 1/
Quietly pouring gasoline on the fire… U.S. 401(k) retirement money may be getting a new on-ramp to “alternative assets” — including commodities. Image 2/
Why stackers should care: 401(k)s held about $9.3 TRILLION as of June 30, 2025. If even a tiny slice gets pointed at metals, silver feels it first.
Dec 2 11 tweets 2 min read
🧵1/

COMEX Silver Deliveries Are Exploding — and the market is pretending it’s normal.

Day 3 of December:
8,855 contracts already delivered.

That’s 44.275 million oz of real silver taken off the exchange.

This is not “business as usual.”
This is a run on the vaults. Image 2/

Today alone: 550 contracts → 2.75M oz delivered.

And here’s the kicker:
Open Interest isn’t collapsing.
Meaning: people aren’t closing their positions —
They’re standing for physical delivery.
This is how cracks form.
Dec 1 8 tweets 3 min read
🧵 Silver isn’t “near its ATH”.

It’s not even in the same universe yet.**
Let’s go step by step. And let it sink in.
(Bookmark this — you’ll need it later.) Image 1️⃣ Bloomberg: “Real high was ~$150.”

Silver hit $57+, and Bloomberg said its inflation-adjusted 1980 high is ~$150.

Sounds big… until you remember something:

👉 That $150 is based on modern CPI, the version that’s been softened since the 80s.

Still — ok. $150 is 3× higher than today.

But let’s keep going.
Dec 1 14 tweets 3 min read
🧵 THREAD: China just made its position crystal clear — Gold YES, Crypto NO. And this is HUGE for #Silver. 1/
This weekend, 13 top Chinese ministries, including the PBoC and the Ministry of Public Security, issued a joint crackdown on ALL crypto-related financial activities.

When China moves this many ministries at once, it’s not “regulation”.

It’s a strategic purge.
Dec 1 20 tweets 3 min read
🧵 Japan just exposed how broken the global financial system really is. And why this environment screams for physical silver. 🥈🔥 Image
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When Japan — the kingdom of zero rates for decades — suddenly shows rising yields across the entire curve, you know something structural is cracking.