Thread by @khodorkovsky_en

The diplomatic chaos around Ukraine is what happens when all sides realize their positions have become unsustainable.

Every major actor has hit their limit.

🧵Here’s why I believe a path to Peace in Ukraine is real:

Let me be blunt about Trump's position as I see it: He doesn't care about Ukrainian sovereignty or Russian security concerns.

He cares about one thing only – reporting back to his voters and getting his Nobel Prize.

His entire strategy revolves around forcing both sides into a room and making them cut a deal, any deal. He wants to pivot to China, and Ukraine and Russia are just obstacles along the way—a fact China understands well and, on the contrary, wants this situation to drag on.

So does Europe, but for a different reason: As long as Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, Europe is in relative safety.

Putin's calculation also has fundamentally changed, and the evidence is everywhere if you look past the propaganda. Russia's economy is hemorrhaging in ways the Kremlin can't hide anymore. The budget deficit explodes while they print rubles. There are gasoline shortages in major cities, drone strikes hundreds of miles from the border.

The war that was supposed to happen "over there" now disrupts daily life in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Only 30% of Russians actively support continuation—that's Putin's floor.

But most critically, every day this continues, Russia becomes more of a Chinese vassal state. Putin now consults Xi Jinping on major decisions. Soon he'll need permission.

Putin needs sufficient territorial gains to construct a victory narrative for those same 30% of Russians who support continued war.

This explains his focus on Donetsk and Luhansk while demonstrating flexibility on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The domestic audience needs the concept of "Novorossiya" validated, but the specific boundaries have become negotiable.

President Zelenskyy faces a particularly difficult position. His military is under pressure while his economy exists solely on Western life support.

He must secure workable security guarantees for Ukraine’s future, all while managing a population justifiably resistant to territorial concessions after immense sacrifice.

Europe's leaders also understand one brutal fact: If Trump walks away from negotiations, they inherit the entirety of the problems.

Three years of "unconditional support" are met with rising domestic opposition, right-wing parties surge on anti-aid platforms.

Meanwhile, Putin's military sits on their doorstep, and unlike America, they can't ignore that geography.

This configuration points toward a clear, if difficult, path forward. Trump will apply pressure, Putin will accept terms he can portray as a victory, Zelenskyy will likely compromise in exchange for robust security commitments, and Europe will help foot the bill to keep the U.S. involved.

The entire negotiation will be decided by two issues: territory and security. The territorial question is a matter of framing a win for Putin’s base without causing Ukrainian society to implode.

The core battle will be over the nature of the security guarantees—Ukraine needs guarantees of its sovereignty, while Putin wants to limit that very sovereignty.

A settlement is possible not because of a change of heart, but because the alternative—a weakening Russia, an exhausted Ukraine, and a distracted America—presents far greater risks than an imperfect peace.

The window for this deal is measured in months, not years. The players know the escalating risks of delay, from state collapse to nuclear miscalculation, which is why, despite all the conflicting interests and disagreements, the conversations continue.

Nobody will get what they originally wanted. This war ends when the alternatives have become too costly for everyone to sustain.

Right now, that reality points toward a difficult settlement that no one will love, but with which everyone can live.

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