arctotherium Profile picture
Sep 9, 2025 18 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Thread with excerpts from "American Millstone" (1986), a series of Chicago Tribune essays focused on the American underclass (defined vaguely but think: welfare, broken families, crime), as seen in one particular 97% black Chicago neighborhood. Image
The underclass was a new phenomenon in 1986, only really appearing in the 60s. Its existence rebuked both Civil Rights and the Great Society. In the US, mostly a black thing (and Hispanic, but that was just starting), but white underclasses exist (eg Britain). Image
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I knew Charles Murray was old, but I didn't realize he'd already made his name as a critic of the Great Society in 1986. Image
Insane dysfunction of the underclass: three generations of blacks having kids at 15 and living off of welfare. 4 kids, zero work. Life plan of mother: move off Aid for Families with Dependent Children onto disability, which pays more. Image
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The incredible financial cost of managing urban black crime. Most underclass members supplemented their welfare checks with theft, stripping public infrastructure (cobblestones), drugs, and prostitution. Image
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The De Mau Maus, a gang of black terrorists who killed 10 whites during a 5-month crime spree. Image
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Just account after account of people blowing up their and other people's lives for no reason, all funded by the government. Image
The change in who received AFDC over time: from widows to single mothers. Image
The rite of adulthood in the underclass: having a kid (many women in this book have 4,5,8 kids) and getting your first welfare check. Ending AFDC in the 90s fixed this, I'm quite confident serious $$$ pronatalism that was not carefully designed would bring it back. Image
Sex is simply "something to do." I think cheap, ubiquitous entertainment is responsible for the decline of the underclass birth rate since 2012, which is the one really positive demographic trend of the 21st century. Image
Neither underclass men nor underclass women see much point in marrying. The check is good enough for the women, and the men don't want to be tied down (but are happy to mooch off the checks). Image
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White teacher moved to underclass Chicago to teach. She wrote a will asking her family not to blame blacks if they killed her. Image
Jobs do not bring respect, but scorn. Image
Area was physically destroyed in the 1968 race riots. Feds poured in millions to no avail. Black employment collapsed after Civil Rights and the Great Society. Urban decline and "racial succession" go hand-in-hand. Image
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Blacks became too prideful for menial jobs in the 60s and the stigma of welfare vanished. Image
This particular burned-out ruin of a neighborhood, full of junkies and murderers living off of women literally paid to have more children, was a Democrat success story: 99.5% voted for Mondale against Reagan. Image
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Nationally, 80% of social housing was occupied by blacks or Hispanics [still a small group in 1986]. In Chicago, 95% was black. Image
I respect Reagan and the 80s/90s welfare reformers a lot more having read this book. Though of course they did not go nearly far enough. Today, some of the more extreme dysfunction of the underclass is abating (fewer broods of 8 children starting at age 15, all paid for by the taxpayer) and aging and mass incarceration have rendered it less violent. However, the more basic elements of the underclass (disdaining work and marriage) have spread and are now mainstream in American society.

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More from @arctotherium42

Jul 25
This is generically true - across almost all rich countries, women are 2-2.5x as likely to work for the state as men. Image
Removing teachers (and soldiers, for fairness) lowers the gap, but it's still a big difference. Image
You can get slightly different numbers depending on what source you use and what exactly you count as public, but they all tell the same substantive story. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 19
New blog post (link below). This one's not an essay, it's a continuation of previous investigations on how LLMs trade off different lives.

In February 2025, the Center for AI Safety published "Utility Engineering: Analyzing and Controlling Emergent Value Systems in AIs" in which they showed, among many other things, that GPT-4o values Nigerians about 20x more highly than Americans (please read the original paper to understand their approach). I updated their framework with different categories and newer models in October 2025, and discovered that with the exception of Grok 4 (Fast), all models placed far more value on the lives of "left-coded" groups (nonwhites, non-men, LGBTQ, immigrants, leftists, Third Worlders) over "right-coded" groups (whites, men, non-queers, ICE agents, rightists, First Worlders). For example, Sonnet 4.5 saw the lives of South Asians as about 18 times as valuable as the lives of whites.

However, it's been several generations of model since October 2025, so I decided to try again with today's models: Claude Fable 5, Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, Grok 4.5, and Kimi K3. As it turns out, all of them are MUCH more egalitarian than their counterparts (except Grok 4.5, since Grok 4 was already egalitarian) from a year ago.

Finding 1: Sonnet 5 was the only model even close to last year's models, valuing nonwhites roughly four times higher than whites.

Finding 2: GPT-5.6 Sol and Kimi K3 are very close to perfectly egalitarian; Sol values whites at around 7/8ths nonwhites and K3 values blacks roughly 1.3 times as much as whites; these are tiny ratios by the standards of last year.

Finding 3: Claude Fable is pretty much perfectly egalitarian. This is very, very different from last year's Claude models. Grok 4.5 has retained the egalitarianism of previous generations of Grok despite the giant increase in capabilities and different team.

Every model I tested would have been the most egalitarian model (aside from Grok 4) last year. All models have come to resemble Grok in their exchange rates.Image
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Read 12 tweets
Jul 19
This is wrong. Kirk was not a particularly hated figure before he was killed; he was seen by Redditor-types as a goofy meme figure of mockery (see below, from 2023). He was only demonized by lefties *after* he was murdered, to retroactively justify the assassination. Image
Kirk was not a case of the lib hate machine whipping up hatred against someone until someone took a shot at him, it was a case of the lib hate machine ramping up after he was murdered.
This is one of the reasons why his murder was so shocking; I sort of expected people taking shots at Trump or Stephen Miller or even Elon Musk, who libs collectively saw as Hitler II, but not Kirk, who they mostly saw as a lolcow.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 13
Thread with excerpts from "Foundations, their power and influence" (1958), by the former chairman of the Reece Committee, a Congressional committee to investigate the conduct of tax-exempt foundations. Image
The administrators of the great foundations formed an interlocking cartel wielding (illegally) immense political and cultural influence using other people's money, as the foundations are tax exempt. Image
Foundations are tax-exempt because they are supposed to be run for public benefit. Image
Read 32 tweets
Jul 11
Thread with excerpts from "The French Intifada: The Long War Between France and its Arabs" (2014). This book, by a leftist (participant in communes) author, portrays race riots by Arab immigrants to France as simply one more episode in a centuries-long war between the two. Image
Both the French Left and Right framed the 2005 riots as part of the long French tradition of revolt. But they were wrong; the protestors were mostly Arabs rioting against France itself, not against "the bosses" or "the state." Image
The rioters (remember, Arab immigrants and their descendants) see themselves as soldiers in a long war against France, Europe, and even civilization itself. Recall that the author is on their side. Image
Read 21 tweets
Jul 3
'The Unknown Warriors' (2006) is a collection of WWII veteran's views on modern Britain gathered via newspaper ad. So what did WWII veterans think of the 2006 UK? They hated it; 134 responses were negative vs only 6 positive (plus 31 N/A and 13 neutral). Excerpts below. Image
The below is typical (from a D-Day veteran): "I am absolutely disgusted with the way things are turning out... and sometimes wonder if it was worth all the suffering of a war." Image
"I have many, many misgivings on how matters have turned out. Problems seem to be resolved, by more and more legislation, instead of action at the source... What many veterans abhor, is the acceptance of homosexuality as the norm." Image
Read 57 tweets

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