Crémieux Profile picture
Sep 9 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
A ten strike law preventing people from leaving prison after that many violent crime convictions would reduce period violent crime by 20%

Five strikes would cut violent crime by 40%

Three strikes would halve violent crime

Two strikes would remove ~two-thirds of violent crime Image
And this is just giving strikes for violent criminal convictions. Most violent criminals do other crimes too.

If you instead used *any* convictions, you could cut crime even more, but you would probably see prisons overflowing with ne'er-do-wells. Image
Give strikes for *arrests* and, man, there goes the crime.

Source: link.springer.com/article/10.100…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Sep 10
The days after George Floyd died, Black people started engaging in violence at much higher rates, radically increasing America's murder rate.

In the modern day, I don't know of any other group that reacts to the news this way. Image
We can see this surge in violence at all resolutions.

The surge happened in the week Floyd died. Image
The surge happened in the month Floyd died. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 7
I tell non-Americans that the United States accounts for:

- About 4% of the global population
- About 13% of global drug consumption
- About 50% of global drug spending

And they're often floored.

For so many drugs, America is *the market*. Image
What's wild is, this isn't alarming because the U.S. is a rich country and medicine is a superior good.

U.S. health spending is in line with its exceptionally high spending in general. Other countries consume about as much as the U.S. did when it was as poor as them. Image
And no, America's high drug prices aren't the reason it spends so much. The main driver is consumption volume. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 1
One of my favorite studies on the validity of psychological measures was a survey that included 15 commonly-used measures.

Virtually all of them were found to be invalid for making comparisons between groups. Image
The only scale passing muster was the Need for Cognition scale.

Measurement invariance was assessed for age and sex and the degree of measurement invariance violations was not computed. That degree could be problematic or fine, but we don't know.

Either way, lots of invalidity.
And commonly-used measures are likely going to be the ones that are better-vetted.

My experience with measures that people make up for their own studies is that they're usually much worse than measures that have at least had some level of validation.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 1
After I posted this thread, I was given all the raw data.

So, here are the zero-sum moral circles, where the categories are explicitly non-overlapping and giving moral units to a higher category does not include a lower-level category.

First, conservatives: very family-centric! Image
In case you're unfamiliar, these are the levels.

Participants were instructed that the moral units to allocate were like currency they can spend on others and allocate to different moral circles, and that a higher-level circle does **not** mean allocating to a lower one. Image
If you pick "16" in this exercise, then you take a moral unit away from levels 1-15.

Here's how this worked out for moderates. Curious result: they're a little more family-focused than conservatives! Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 1
Here's a fun alternative to the moral heatmap way of getting at in-groups.

Just ask people what communities they identify with most.

Liberals identify with the globe first, the nation second, and their local community last. Conservatives go nation, local, then global. Image
This study also gave participants the option to either pocket or donate another $5 for completing the survey.

They were given an international, national, or local charity option.

70% of liberals and 56% of conservatives donated something. Both liked local charity the most. Image
This result is curious because, in the real world, conservatives tend to donate more. No more often, but in greater amounts, so they overall give more, even controlling for income.

The reason has to do with religion. That explains the entire small conservative charity bump. Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 1
The moral circles study gave two versions of its circle task:

- One with a limited number of moral units, and thus moral allocation was zero-sum

- One where participants had unlimited moral units to distribute however they liked

Replot thread🧵

Everyone, zero-sum first. Image
The authors provided values on concern for humans versus nonhumans, and the results had to be scaled to be proportional.

Each allocation proportion is treated as a radial coordinate. To give it spread, we assign an angular coordinate θ = π/4 to tilt it like the original.

Cons: Image
To get some space on this, we add 10 degrees of Gaussian spread to give the cloud thickness.

Thus, each participant becomes a point (x = radial coordinate, r * cosθ, y = r * sinθ).

Did you notice conservatives being very human-focused? Here are moderates: Image
Read 17 tweets

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